What was expected?

The Astros were coming off their seventh consecutive ALCS appearance in 2023 that saw them drop numerous home games, leading to their exit at the hands of the Rangers, who won the title. They ended up losing notable veteran bat Michael Brantley to retirement and middle relievers Phil Maton, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek all went off in their separate ways. But they did sign icon Jose Altuve to an extension through 2029.

The big offseason move was to bring in star closer Josh Hader on a five year, $95 million deal to help shore up a bullpen that lost the aforementioned veterans. Victor Caratini was signed to a modest deal to be the backup catcher and Trey Cabbaage was traded for. The notable minor league deal was Tayler Scott who was the only one of the group to make any kind of an impact.

Dusty Baker rode off into the sunset and was replaced by Joe Espada, which helped the draft value of Yanier Diaz and Chas McCormick (more on them later, of course).

The expectation for the Astros was clear: go win a World Series. With the success they’ve had over the last seven years, that is the only thing that matters.

How did it go?

Many thought the division would be a harder for the Astros to keep a hold of with the emergence of the Rangers after their World Series win and the continued improvement of the Mariners. But the Astros held a six game lead on the Mariners entering September and the Rangers were all but out of the divisional race, 10.0 games back of the first-place Astros. They ended up winning the division without much of a challenge as the Mariners’ late spurt (they won eight of their last ten games) got them to within 3.5 games at the end of the year. The Astros were tied for second in run differential at +91 as they entered the Wild Card round with home field advantage facing the Tigers.

Their inexplicable struggles to win postseason games at home continued as they were promptly bounced in two straight Wild Card games in Houston by the Cinderella Tigers.In Game 1 the Astros just could not figure out Tarik Skubal (hey, who ever does? He is pretty OK). They almost got to their bullpen but came up short in their late inning surge. Game 2 saw former closer Ryan Pressly and new closer Hader combined to give the Tigers a 5-2 lead as the ‘Stros had a 2-1 lead going into the eighth inning. These two losses were their sixth and seventh straight playoff losses in Houston.

Now the “end of the dynasty” horns will be louder than ever going into 2025.

Fantasy Stud?

While guys like Ronel Blanco, Framber Valdez and Yanier Diaz all had fantastic and better than expected fantasy seasons, the stud on this team was Yordan Alvarez.

Yordan ended the year with a .308/.392/.567 slash line with 35 homers, 88 runs, 86 RBI, .402 wOBA and 168wRC+. The wRC+ ranked fourth in the bigs and the wOBA was fifth.

This was his fourth straight  year with at least 31 homers and his third straight year with a 10.9%+ walk rate, .293+ batting average, .400+ wOBA and 168+ wRC+.

And ya know what? He actually stole six bases. And while that number is not a major boon, it just adds a little cherry on top of a wonderful fantasy sundae and could bump him up a spot or two in the first round when comparing against other sluggers that are a guaranteed goose egg in the category.

Fantasy Dud?

While Hader, Justin Verlander and Jose Abreu were all considered, the answer here has to be Chas McCormick.

After years of excellent production but not able to find an every day spot in the lineup under former manager Dusty Baker, McCormick was announced as the starter in Spring Training and lots of hope was baked into his near top-150 ADP.

In his part time roles the last two seasons, he owned a 115 wRC+ in 2022 and 133 in 2023. In 2023, he really broke through with 22 bombs and 19 steals in 457 at bats.

However, it never happened for McCormick this year as he lost his starting job soon after coming off the injured list in the middle of May as it was apparent by then he was not the hitter the Astros nor fantasy managers were hoping he was going to be. He was sent down for a short period of time and came back up to begin September. He started every game before going back on the injured list and making a return to be on the postseason roster.

When it was all said and done, he only got five homers with a .211/.271/.306 slashline to go with a .257 wOBA and 66 wRC+.

While a deeper dive is coming in the player breakdown section, managers are going to hope that his injuries played a big role in his struggles this year as there just is no way he is THIS bad of a hitter.

Fantasy Surprise?

Really, the only two names under consideration here were Hader (for how surprisingly bad he was) and Ronel Blanco (for the opposite reason) but I have to go with Blanco

The dude was barely drafted going into the season and ended up as a top-50 overall player on Yahoo.

He opened up the year with a bang, delivering a no-hitter on April 1 and never looked back.

He ended the year 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 167.1 innings pitched. He was a minor league bullpen arm up until 2023 when the Astros decided to try him as a starter, making 13 Triple-A starts out of 15 games and seven Major League starts in 17 games.

Despite a dip in fastball velocity (expected after becoming a starter), he was able to maintain a solid 24.6% strikeout rate However, he did greatly out perform his underlying numbers so managers may want to use caution when drafting him next year.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Jose Altuve – 2B

Altuve gave managers exactly what they were hoping for this year. After having an ADP of 31 in the preseason, he would end up being ranked exactly 31st so managers can pat themselves on the back for that.

He ended the year with a .295/.350/.439 slashline, 20 homers, 65 RBI, 94 runs and 22 steals. These numbers were good enough for a very good .344 wOBA and 127 wRC+.

Altuve has been a consistent fantasy producer for years (I just won’t count 2020, that year was weird).

This was his fourth season out of his last five (remember, don’t count 2020) with at least 20 homers, 89 runs, .489 slugging percentage as the wOBA and wRC+ both represent his floors in this time.

However, there are some red flags popping up that makes me hesitant to draft him as a top-30 dude next year.

The xwOBA, .318 (surface wOBA: .344) was a career low since 2015 (remember, no 2020). This was his first year below .800 on the OPS since 2013. This was his lowest ISO season (.145) since 2018.

Then the xSLG was .406 (real slug .439) and that was a career low since 2015.

While he has always been an aggressive swinger and a heavy pull hitter, he took these things to whole new levels this year, even for him. He is a career first-pitch swinger 41.3% of the time (well above the MLB average). This year he was first pitch swinging 46% of the time, a clear career high. He swung at a 51.5% rate overall, up from his career 48.1% rate. He also whiffed at a career high rate of 21.9%, which is not a bad number, but when a hitter swings at a higher rate and then turns in a a career high whiff rate, that will cause some alarm.

He sold out for the short left field porch in Houston with a 51.3% pull rate, a career high (42.3% for his career). He also chased at a career high rate of 37.3%.

Look, he has always been a bat that was aggressive, chased bad pitches at times and pulled the ball. This year he did all of that to an even greater extreme but also whiffed more and turned in some of his career worst marks in some key metrics like ISO, xwOBA and xSLG.

While his track record demands he should not be faded too much, he is not a top-30 pick any more as I believe I would not be targeting him until the fifth or sixth rounds of drafts.

Yordan Alvarez – OF

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