Early Week Streamers for September 15 – September 18

​

  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on September 14, 2025 8:33 pm by Anthony Kates | Published: September 14, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    Monday – September 15 – Probable Starters

    Tyler Wells – BAL – @ CWS – 17%

    Wells has performed well since returning from a UCL revision surgery on his right elbow, after missing slightly more than 16 months of baseball. He’s made two starts, one at the Padres and the other at home for the Pirates, and allowed just three earned runs, two home runs and one walk, while striking out 10 over 11.2 innings. He’s been a fly ball heavy pitcher his entire career and has been no different this year, with a 54.8% fly ball rate and a 41.9% ground ball rate. He’s demonstrating some of the best control of his career though, as his 0.77 BB/9 would be the lowest of his career by a full walk, with his strikeout rate not fully recovering to the near one per inning rate he had back in 2023 (his longest big league season). The high fly ball rate tends to result in a multitude of home runs, so two in two games is no surprise, and obviously his 3.2% line drive rate won’t maintain, but a 12.1% swinging strike rate should be here to stay and a chase rate north of 30% (it is currently at 38%, which is unsustainable, but his career rate was over 30% prior to these two starts).

    Wells is taking on a White Sox team that is once again performing near the bottom of the league offensively, especially against right-handed pitchers at home over the past month. They have a 77 wRC+, tied with the Diamondbacks for fourth worst, a .282 wOBA, also fourth worst, and a .639 OPS, fifth worst. Their .125 ISO is the fourth lowest in the league, their 25.1% strikeout rate is the fifth highest and their 5.8% walk rate is the second lowest. On the batted ball side of things, they had the second lowest ground ball rate, 33.8%, and the second highest fly ball rate, 45.3%, yet they had the seventh lowest HR/FB rate, 9.4%. That might be because they had the lowest hard hit rate, 24.8%, and the eighth highest soft hit rate, 16.7%, leading to 10 home runs, 10th fewest and tied with the Braves, Marlins and Nationals. The White Sox had the 20th most plate appearances against right-handed pitching over the last month and scored 42 runs, the 18th most, had 19 extra base hits, third fewest and tied with the Cardinals, and ground into six double plays, 11th most and tied with seven other teams.

    Taking on another bad offense in the White Sox, Wells should put up another five or more inning gem. I’d guess there will be limited base runners, maybe a run or two and the Orioles in a position to win the game (and Wells in line for a quality start).

    Jack Leiter – TEX – @ HOU – 46%

    Leiter has had quite the up and down season but has pitched fairly well over the past month. He made six starts in that time frame, throwing 32.1 innings, allowing just 11 earned runs, three home runs, 12 walks and striking out 37. He earned two wins and three quality starts, while displaying better control and striking out more batters than his season long numbers. His BB/9 over these starts are a vast improvement on his walk rate up to August 12, which was 4.68, compared to 3.34 over his last six starts. He has done a good job at limiting home runs all season, with a 0.95 HR/9, even though he has been a fly ball heavy pitcher, with a 45.1% fly ball rate, a 10.9% barrel rate and a 42.7% hard hit rate. His chase rate (27.2%), contact rate (76.8%), zone contact rate (84.8%) and swinging strike rate (11.1%) are all better over this six game stretch than his season long numbers have been, with his strikeout rate increasing while his walk rate decreased.

    It’s wild to imagine a team that is in a divisional and wild card race being the worst offense for any stretch of time, but that is currently the Astros when it comes to facing right-handed pitching at home over the past month. They have the lowest wRC+, 72, wOBA, .270, OPS, .604, and ISO, .103. They have the fourth highest strikeout rate, 25.2%, but the eighth highest walk rate, 9.9%. Batted ball wise, they had the 10th highest ground ball rate, 42.6%, a middle of the pack fly ball rate and the fifth lowest HR/FB rate, 8.3%. They had the fourth lowest hard hit rate, 26.8%, and the highest soft hit rate, 22.1% (making them one of two teams over 19.3%). The Astros had the fifth fewest plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home over the past month and hit the third fewest home runs, six, scored the fewest runs by far, 20 (every other team scored at least 32 runs), and had 15 extra base hits, the fewest in the league.

    The Rangers sit just two games behind the Astros for the final wild card spot in the American League playoffs and have been performing better than the Astros over the past few weeks. This series could determine which of these two teams get into the playoffs and Leiter will have the opportunity to set the tone in game one, against a still struggling offense. If he can limit walks and keep the ball in the ball park, he’ll end up on the right side of a win and quality start.

    High-risk: Sean Burke vs Orioles, Simeon Woods-Richardson vs Yankees, Matthew Liberatore vs Reds, Mitchell Parker vs Braves, Jason Alexander vs Rangers

    Tuesday – September 16 – Probable Starters

    Jameson Taillon – CHC – @ PIT – 28%

    Taillon has missed various parts of the season due to a calf strain and a groin strain and has made only three starts since the beginning of August, but did pitch fairly overall in his three starts in-between and around his most recent IL stints. Across the three games, he pitched 15.1 innings, allowed just four earned runs, one home run and three walks while striking out nine batters. He has been a fly ball heavy pitcher this season and these games were no exception, as he had a 40.8% fly ball rate and just a 32.7% ground ball rate. He had some excellent statcast data (albeit in a small sample size) of zero barrels and just a 34.7% hard-hit rate. On the season that would be a 9% and 39.4% respectively, so he has been considerably better lately. He allowed plenty of contact, an 89.1% rate, a nearly equal zone contact rate, 89.4%, but just a 4.7% swinging strike rate and a 16.7% chase rate. Taillon pitches to contact and batters oblige him.

    The Pirates are not playing their worst ball right now, but they are a below average offense at home against right-handed pitching over the past month. In that time frame, they have an 88 wRC+, tied with the Marlins for 10th lowest, a .301 wOBA, tied with the Marlins for 12th lowest, and a .684 OPS, 13th lowest. They have a .131 IOS, the seventh lowest in the league, a 24.3% strikeout rate, the ninth highest, and an 8.8% walk rate, 12th best. On the batted ball side of things, they had a 44.2% ground ball rate, the eighth highest, a 33.7% fly ball rate, the sixth lowest, and a 7.1% HR/FB rate, the second lowest in the league and one of three teams under 8%. They had the 12th lowest hard hit rate, 32.5%, and the sixth highest soft hit rate, 17.2%, tied with the Rangers. The Pirates had the 24th most plate appearances at home against right-handed pitching over the past month and hit five home runs, fewest in the league and tied with the Diamondbacks, who had fifty fewer plate appearances. They scored 32 runs, second fewest, and ground into seven double plays, sixth most and tied with the Orioles, Cubs, Nationals and Diamondbacks.

    The Pirates are struggling to hit for power, struggling to score runs and struggling to get on base. Taillon has limited home runs, limited runs and limited base runners when healthy lately. We know what we should get from this start: limited runs, few base runners and the win.

    High-risk: Jake Irvin vs Braves, Ian Seymour vs Blue Jays, Mitch McGreevy vs Reds, Carson Seymour @ Diamondbacks, Johan Oviedo vs Cubs, Zebby Matthews vs Yankees, Kyle Hendricks @ Brewers, Cristian Javier vs Rangers, Joey Cantillo @ Tigers, Kyle Freeland vs Marlins, Cade Povich @ White Sox, Dustin May vs Athletics, Eduardo Rodriguez vs Giants, Jeffrey Springs @ Red Sox, Shane Smith vs Orioles, Emmet Sheehan vs Phillies

    Wednesday – September 17 – Probable Starters

    Ryan Weathers – MIA – @ COL – 11%

    Weathers has had a very short 2025 season, thanks to a couple of injuries, suppressing the breakout season that many thought was incoming. He entered the season on the injured list because of a left forearm injury suffered in Spring Training and missed the first five weeks of the season, then made five starts before suffering a left lat strain that resulted in him missing three entire months, before returning this month. He took on the Nationals last Thursday and looked very sharp, allowing just five hits and no walks or runs over five innings, striking out four. On the season, he has made six starts, thrown 29.2 innings and allowing nine earned runs, four home runs, eight walks and struck out 27. He’s a ground ball heavy starter, with a 45.2% ground ball rate, that has had solid BABIP luck, .235, with some moderate strand rate luck, 75.8%. Though he has an elevated 7.1% barrel rate, he has allowed just a 35.3% hard-hit rate and an 88 MPH average exit velocity, to go along with just a 73% contact rate (and 81.5% zone contact). He has generated a 13.1% swinging strike rate and a 27.8% chase rate, while throwing 57% of his pitches in the zone.

    After facing the Nationals (the worst team against left-handed pitching over the past month) in his first game off of the injured list, Weathers now gets to face Rockies, the second worst team against left-handed pitching over the past month. They have a 67 wRC+ over that month, second lowest and one of three teams under 73; a .285 wOBA, eighth lowest, and a .649 OPS, also eighth lowest. Their .117 ISO was the fifth lowest, 26.3% strikeout rate was the fourth worst and 5.4% walk rate was the lowest in the league. On the batted ball side, they had a 43.2% ground ball rate and a 37.3% fly ball rate, and were one of just ten teams under a 10.4% HR/FB rate, at 9.5%. They had the fifth highest hard hit rate, 36%, and the fourth lowest soft hit rate, 12%, tied with the Angels. They had the 24th most plate appearances against left-handed pitching over the past month and hit six home runs, 22nd most and tied with the Pirates, Brewers, White Sox and Angels. They scored 29 runs, 23rd most, and ground into six double plays, ninth most and tied with eight other teams.

    Back-to-back soft starts coming off of the injured list is quite the boon for Weathers and I think we can expect an as good start against the Rockies as he had against the Nationals.

    High-risk: Mason Barnett @ Red Sox, Dean Kremer @ White Sox, Payton Tolle vs Athletics, Martin Perez vs Orioles, Logan Allen @ Tigers, McCade Brown vs Marlins, AJ Blubaugh vs Rangers, Stephen Kolek vs Mariners, Jose Soriano @ Brewers, Andre Pallanta vs Reds, Brad Lord vs Braves

    Thursday – September 18 – Probable Starters

    10 games and no pitching streams? It happens. None of the available streaming options is performing well enough or facing a poor enough performing team to trust. Seriously, look at the high risk list below and tell me who you’re trusting in your playoff matchup? Exactly. Relax today and worry about streaming over the weekend.

    High-risk: Kai Wei Teng @ Dodgers, Randy Vasquez @ Mets, Michael Lorenzen vs Mariners, Tanner Gordon vs Marlins, Colin Rea @ Reds, JT Ginn @ Red Sox

    Check back on Thursday for Nathan’s streams for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

    [/wcm_restrict]

    Come join us at SportsEthos by filling out an application by clicking here
    Click here to join us on Discord!
    Follow us on X by clicking here
    Follow us on Bluesky by clicking here
    Follow Anthony on X at @akfantasybb
    Follow Anthony on Bluesky at @akfantasybb.bsky.social

    September 14, 2025, 8:33 pm