This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

**All stats for Tuesday streamers are through Sunday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

Tuesday – May 6th- Probable Starters

Tony Gonsolin – LAD – @ Marlins – 39% – The Marlins wRC+ against RHP at home, 92, is the 8th lowest, they have a .311 wOBA, tied with the Mets for the 9th lowest, a middling .152 ISO, a .702 OPS, 10th lowest and a 23.3% K-rate, the 4th highest. They have a 9.5% walk rate, right smack in the middle of the league, with a 44.5% ground ball rate, tied with the Twins for 8th highest, and a 35.3% fly ball rate, the 8th lowest. They are tied with the Mets for the 3rd highest soft hit rate, at 20.3%, but have a middle of the pack hard-hit rate, at just 30.4%. They are 20th in PA, tied for 19th in HR and 16th in runs, while sitting middle of the pack in extra base hits. So a bottom half of the league offense that strikes out almost a quarter of the time and hits a home run on average once every 39 plate appearances.

And who do they get to face? That’s right, a guy who has already had a really good start against them. Gonsolin made his first start of the season against these Marlins, literally a week ago, and struck out nine, walked none, allowed three earned runs and one home run over six innings. He looked much better than he did in 2023 and more like the guy the Dodgers had in 2022. He limited barrel and hard hits against the Marlins, with just one barrel and five hard-hits in 15 events. He did allow more than double the fly balls than he did ground balls, but that will surely come down, as his career rate is 42.9%. I don’t want to make too much of that game, but I don’t see why Gonsolin cannot replicate that performance this time in Miami. The Dodgers are a much better team, and the Marlins are not that great. Sign me up for another great start.

Matthew Liberatore – STL – @ Pirates – 29% – If we’re not beating up on the White Sox, Marlins or Rockies, then we must be beating up on the Pirates. Though, rightfully, they are one of the worst offenses in baseball, especially against lefties. They have a 74 wRC+, 7th worst, a .280 wOBA, 10th lowest, a .625 OPS, 9th lowest, a 24.9% strikeout rate, the tied for 7th highest, and a 7.5% walk rate, the 9th lowest. They have the eight highest ground ball rate, sixth lowest line drive rate and a middle of the pack fly ball rate. They have the 7th highest hard hit rate and the 6th lowest soft hit rate, but have hit just seven home runs in 333 plate appearances. That’s tied for the 16th most plate appearances and 12th most home runs, but they have scored just 24 runs, tied for the 6th lowest amount. So they are not walking a lot, strikeout a quarter of the time and score once every 14.5 plate appearances. Not an intimidating offense at all.

I’m starting to think the Liberatore breakout is happening before our eyes. Though he has only two wins in six starts, he has four quality starts and has allowed more than two runs only twice, and would probably have had his fifth quality start in his last game, but there was a extended rain delay, so he did not get to get back into the game after the third inning. He’s allowed only two home runs over 34 innings, has struck out three and only walked three batters. The strikeout rate is the same as last year, but the walk rate would represent a career best. He is allowing more ground balls than fly balls, which has helped him limit any damage done against him by his 44% hard-hit rate and his 90.5 MPH avgEV. He has a 7% barrel rate, 30.9% chase rate and a 10.5% swinging strike rate, with an aggressive pitching approach, as he has thrown 55.3% of pitches in the zone and has a 59.4% first pitch strike rate. He was a top 100 prospect as recent as 2023 and the Cardinals patience with Liberatore seems to be paying off this year. I think he should be rostered in over half of all leagues and is nearing must roster status, especially in quality starts leagues. The Pirates were able to tag him for five runs in his last appearance in Pittsburgh, but he has been on a tear since then, so I expect him to bounce back and win his second start against the Buccos.

Hayden Wesneski – HOU – @ Brewers – 22% – Wesneski is facing a Brewers team that has fared worse at home against righties than I expected. They have an 88 wRC+, the 6th lowest, their .298 wOBA is 4th lowest, their .676 OPS is also 4th lowest, they have a .138 ISO and the 9th lowest BB rate at 8.8%. Their strikeout rate is just 20.8%, tied for 12th highest, while their line drive rate, fly ball rate and ground ball rate are all in the middle third of the league. They have the 11th highest soft hit rate and the 18th highest hard-hit rate. While they have the second fewest PA against RHP at home, they are tied for the third fewest home runs and have scored the third fewest runs. Like the Marlins, they hit a home run once every 39 plate appearances. A bottom half of the league offense that doesn’t hit for a ton of power or extra base hits in general and doesn’t walk much, making it difficult to score runs at a high rate.

Wesneski is a good-not-great starter who strikes out nearly a batter per inning, has seen his control improve year over year, to a career best 1.29 BB/9 this season, but who struggles with allowing too many home runs. Case in point, over his 28 innings this year, he has walked just four batters but allowed 6 home runs. He doesn’t have a particularly high hard-hit rate, at just 40.7%, and his avgEV is just 89.3 MPH, but he has a 9.9%-barrel rate and a 41.3% fly ball rate, which is leading to the home run barrage. His swinging strike rate is up to 11.2%, his in-zone strike rate is 56.8% and his first strike rate is 65.2%, so he is attacking batters early and often, but his chase rate has dropped from 30.1% last year to 25.9% this year, which has led to the increase in the zone rate and challenging hitters more often. His contact rate is up slightly, to 77.1%, but his zone contact rate has dropped 3.2%, to 85.8%. He’s facing a Brewers team that has stumbled out of the gate this year and sits one game under .500, with a worse offense than it had in 2024. Wesneski has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any game this season and I don’t see that changing here. I thin he will walk away with his third quality start and possibly his second win of the year.

Lucas Giolito – BOS – vs Rangers – 16% – The Rangers are only slightly better at home against RHP than they are on the road, and slightly better against LHP in general, so I think the Rangers problem is that their offense just isn’t that good this year. Against RHP on the road, they have a 78 wRC+, the 5th lowest, with a .277 wOBA, which comes in at 3rd lowest, and a .630 OPS that is 8th lowest. An OPS that is heavily carried by the slugging, since the OBP is just .256, the 2nd lowest in the league, ahead of only the Rockies. They strike out 23.6% of the time, the 13th highest rate, but walk an abysmal 4.8%, the lowest in the league. They do hit more fly balls than ground balls, with their 43.6% fly ball rate the 3rd highest in the league, but they have the lowest line drive rate, at 16.1%. Combine that with the 9th lowest hard hit rate and the 3rd highest soft hit rate, and you begin to understand why this team has struggled. Now, they do have the 5th least amount of PA vs RHP on the road, but they’ve managed to hit 12 home runs, which is tied for the 18th most, but then they’ve scored the tied for 3rd lowest amount of runs, with the Rays, of just 31. They score a run around once every 13 plate appearances, once of the worst rates in the league.

Giolito is the second streamer that will be making his second start of the season on my list. He missed all of 2024 due to a partial tear of his UCL resulting in an internal bracing procedure, but is now back and healthy. He faced Toronto in his first start a week ago and showed some rust, but also showed some good stuff. He struck out 7 blue jays over 6 innings, allowed only three earned runs and two walks, but also allowed 2 home runs. Though he missed a full year plus the first month of this season, he was missing nothing off his fastball, that clocked in at 93.3 MPH, just like it did two years ago, and added 1.6 MPH to his changeup, though he gave up two hits off the changeup, both home runs. He threw a handful of sliders and gave up two hits off that, and even it was up a full MPH. It’s tough to judge his statcast data after just 6 innings, though an 18.8% barrel and 56.3% hard-hit rate are not good over any sample. With the Rangers struggling as much as they have this year and with Giolito looking decent in his first outing, I think he will have another solid performance in his second start. Another 6 innings with a strikeout or more per inning and a home run allowed, but in line for the win and the quality start is a high percentage outcome in my opinion.

High-risk: Cal Quantrill vs Dodgers, Brad Lord vs Guardians, Clarke Schmidt vs Padres, Andrew Abbott @ Braves, Justin Verlander @ Cubs, Colin Rea vs Giants, Cade Povich @ Twins, Sean Burke @ Royals, Chad Patrick vs Astros, Chase Dollander vs Tigers, Tyler Anderson vs Blue Jays, David Peterson @ Diamondbacks, Emerson Hancock @ Athletics, Jeffrey Springs vs Mariners, Ben Lively @ Nationals

Wednesday – May 7th – Probable Starters

***The Athletics and Orioles are currently TBD for their Wednesday games. I will update as soon as I know who is starting those games, especially if they are a streamable arm.***

Tanner Houck – BOS – vs Rangers – 44% – Just read about the Rangers above with Giolito, the data doesn’t change.

As for Houck. there is some risk here, especially if you look at his overall numbers. 6.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, strikeout rate down, walk rate up, home run rate a career worst, hard-hit rate a career high and his swinging strike rate is under 10% for the second year in a row. But, he does have three qualities mixed in over his seven starts on the season and is coming off of his best start of the year, a seven inning, one run, six strikeout, zero walk affair against the Blue Jays. And his numbers are a bit skewed by his two and one-third innings of 11 run ball against the Rays. He has already faced the Rangers once this year, in Arlington, and that touched him up for four runs, two home runs and three walks….but that was all the way back on March 28th, back before the offense turned out to not be that great. On the road, the Rangers are dreadful and I think Houck will string together back to back solid, quality starts for the first time this season.

Michael Wacha – KCR – vs White Sox – 29% – The White Sox perform pretty much the same on the road as they do at home versus RHP – poorly. On the road, they habve an 82 wRC+, good for 7th lowest, with a .285 wOBA, 7th lowest, and a .622 OPS, 5th lowest. They strike out nearly a quarter of the time, 24.7%, which is tied for the ninth highest rate with the Yankees, but they have the tied for sixth highest walk rate at 10.6% (tied with the Dodgers). But, they don’t do much with those walks, as they have a .099 ISO, tied for second lowest with the Rockies, and only eight home runs (tied for 4th lowest – Phillies, Padres) over 482 PA (18th most). Their 40 runs are tied with the Phillies for 23rd most.

And they are facing a Wacha who has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last five starts and is currently on a two game quality start streak, against much better teams than the White Sox. Though his strikeout and walk rates have gone in the wrong direction, his home run rate has dropped five years in a row (to a career low 0.47 HR/9), his barrel rate is the lowest it has been since 2016, his hard-hit rate is just 33.1%, which is amazing, and, though he allows more fly balls than ground balls, he has just a 17.4% line drive rate. He won’t strike out a ton of batters, but he forces lots of contact by throwing strikes early (63.1% first pitch strike rate) and often (54.9% zone rate is his highest since 2015). I don’t expect Wacha to have a monster game, but I do believe he will have his third straight quality start and fifth straight game allowing three earned runs or less.

High-risk: Logan Allen @ Nationals, Quinn Priester vs Astros, Mitch Keller @ Cardinals, Ben Brown vs Giants, Valente Bellozo vs Dodgers, Merrill Kelly vs Mets, Grant Holmes vs Reds, Simeon Woods-Richardson vs Orioles, Kyle Freeland vs Tigers, Jonathan Cannon @ Royals, 

Thursday – May 8th – Probable Starters

***Both sides of the Dodgers and Diamondbacks game are currently TBD, so I will update the probable starters and/or high-risk list with a name or two, depending on if the players are rostered in 50% or less of leagues.***

Brayan Bello – BOS – vs Rangers – 30% – I feel like this is cheating, but, again, let’s read about the Rangers in the Giolito stream mention and we will just talk Bello here.

Of the three Red Sox pitchers I am suggesting you stream this week, Bello is probably the worst of the group. He’s made just three starts this season and has tossed 17.2 innings over those start, but has only struck out 12, has allowed a home run in each start and has seven total walks. But he has two quality starts and has allowed more than one earned run in only one of his three starts. He does have a career high barrel rate, at 9.6%, but his hard-hit rate is essentially in line with his career rate (42.3% in 2025; 41.9% career) and he has the best ground ball to fly ball ratio of is career, 2.55. His home run rate is sure to come down, since it is currently at 27.3% HR/FB, which is 10% higher than his worst home run rate, and it will be difficult to maintain that kind of a rate with an average launch angle of just 2.1 degrees. Plus, throughout his career, he has been a better overall pitcher in the second half than the first, so the best is yet to come. If Giolito and Houck can walk away with solid starts and potentially quality starts, I think Bello can as well.

Jose Soriano – LAA – vs Blue Jays – 23% – The Blue Jays are one of the worst offenses in the league when facing RHP on the road. They ahve a 58 wRC+, the 2nd lowest, ahead of just the Rockies (they have a 50 wRC+). Their wOBA, .250, is also 2nd lowest, their OPS is tied with the Rockies for the worst in the league, .539, which makes them the only two teams under a .621 OPS. They have the 7th lowest strikeout rate, 20.3%, and a middle of the pack walk rate, 7.9%. Their ISO is easily the lowest in the league, as their .060 ISO is .039 lower than both the White Sox and the Rockies. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the highest soft hit rate (21.1%) in the league and the lowest hard hit rate, 24.6% (2.6% lower than the Padres). They have the 6th least amount of PA, but the least amount of home runs, with just three (one every 101 PA), and runs, 26, which is five lower than the Rangers. They are dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.

Soriano has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride on the season, with three starts of 6 innings or more and 1 run or less, two starts allowing five earned runs and and two starts allowing three earned runs. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, though he did allow only one walk each in his last two outings, compared to two or more in his first five. He continues to limit home runs, 0.68 HR/9, because he has a 63.9% ground ball rate, a career high rate, which helps mitigate a 9.1% barrel rate and a 46.3% hard-hit rate, because his average launch angle is -1.4 degrees. He uses a heavy sinker to get batters to put the ball on the ground so often, but when he is struggling with command or control, the starts get ugly. He had it going against Detroit, who have been much better on the road against RHP than the Blue Jays have, which leads me to believe he can keep the Blue Jays in control as well. Let’s give him his 4th quality start and 4th start of one run or less as well.

High-risk:  Dean Kremer @ Twins, Davis Martin @ Royals, Antonio Senzatela vs Tigers, Jack Leiter @ Red Sox

Check back on Thursday for Nathan’s streams for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

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