Early Week Streamers for June 2nd – June 5th

  • This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

    You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    This week kicks off with the fewest streams of the season. There are very few arms I trust or will risk streaming in the early part of the week, but also we are limited by a shallow slate on both Monday and Thursday and by many of the top arms pitching on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – June 2nd – Probable Starters

    Unfortunately, no Monday streams. The only name I kind of considered was Max Meyer at home against the Rockies, who notoriously underperform on the road, but Meyer has been an unreliable guy, too unpredictable starts to start. None of the streamable arms have been performing well enough lately to trust them on the first day of the week. We will look to Tuesday and beyond for streaming luck this week.

    High-risk: Luis Severino vs Twins, Richard Fitts vs Angels, Jonathan Cannon vs Tigers, Brady Singer vs Brewers, German Marquez @ Marlins, Tyler Anderson @ Red Sox, Max Meyer vs Rockies, Aaron Civale @ Reds, Paul Blackburn @ Dodgers, Stephen Kolek @ Giants

    Tuesday – June 3rd – Probable Starters

    ***Tigers have a TBD due to Jackson Jobe hitting the injured list on Friday. As soon as I know who will be starting in his place, I will update Tuesday’s streaming list.***

    Lance McCullers – HOU – @ PIT – 17%

    After missing more than two full years of baseball, it shouldn’t have surprised anyone that McCullers’ first couple of starts were going to be less than satisfactory. In his first three starts, he threw only eight innings, walking seven, allowing nine runs (seven earned), one home run and striking out six. Over his last two starts, though, things have started to take a turn for the better. He threw 10.1 innings, allowing only five earned runs, two home runs and four walks, while striking out 20. He’s been very ground ball heavy, with just a 31.4% fly ball rate, has allowed just a 74.1%  contact rate, though his statcast data is ugly, it is heavily skewed by those first three horrible outings (his barrel rate in his last two games is just 4.5). He has updated his pitch mix, with a reduction in his knuckle-curve and sinker, throwing more sinkers than ever and re-added a four-seam fastball. With Ronel Blanco out for the season, Cristian Javier still a ways away and Luis Garcia suffering another setback in his return from Tommy John, the Astros need McCullers to pitch well if they have any chance at staying in the AL West division and AL playoff chase.

    The Pirates fared slightly better against right handed pitchers at home in May compared to April, with a 95 wRC+ compared to a 92, but both months were still below league average. Their .315 wOBA in May was the 14th lowest, as was their .706 OPS, though that was buoyed moreso by a .345 OBP and less by their .361 SLG (which was accompanied by a .108 ISO, just ahead of the Rangers for worst in the league). Their 10.8% walk rate was tied-for third best (with the White Sox) and their 19% strikeout rate was the 13th lowest. But, they had the tied-for third lowest fly-ball rate (34.2%, with the Nationals) and the tied-fir ninth highest ground ball rate, 43.8%, with the Padres. Combine those numbers with the sixth highest soft hit rate and the tenth lowest hard hit rate, and you get just eight home runs (tied-for fourth lowest, with three others teams) even though they have the eighth most plate appearances facing righties in the month of May. They’ve struggled with men on base, to the tune of scoring just 31 runs, the tied-for third fewest in the league (with the Twins) and have hit into the tied-for second most double players, with 12 (tied with the Blue Jays).

    McCullers has pitched well enough in his last two outings that I expect him to have another good to great outing. He should strike out more than a batter per inning, will probably walk multiple Pirates, but limit home runs and runs, due to how poorly they’ve done with runners on base. I believe he will throw his second straight quality start and nab his first win of the season.

    Cade Horton – CHC – @ WAS – 25%

    Horton has been solid if unspectacular in the big leagues so far, but he has looked more comfortable start by start. He threw his most innings and struck out his most batters in his most recent start and is slowly starting to look like the elite right arm the Cubs hope he would be. Over four appearances this season (three starts, one relief), he has pitched 20.1 innings, struck out 16, walked just four and allowed four home runs. He’s been more a ground ball pitcher than he was in Triple-A, but limiting fly balls in Wrigley is ideal. His statcast data is not ideal, with a 10.9% barrel rate and a 43.8% hard-hit rate, but it is a small sample size, with two games of elite data and two games of terrible data, so I am not worried about it just yet. He has a decent 28.8% chase rate and an 11.8% swinging strike rate, throwing first-pitch strikes 66.3% of the time and pitches in the zone 48.6% of the time (higher than he was in the minor leagues). As he gets more comfortable, I expect Horton to perform better and better.

    The Nationals, Horton’s next opponent, are struggling a bit against right-handed pitchers, posting just an 88 wRC+ in May, the eighth lowest. They had a .296 wOBA, ninth lowest, .663 OPS, eighth lowest and a .120 ISO, the fourth lowest. They did have just a 19.1% strikeout rate, but also just a 6.7% walk rate, good for the fifth lowest. They hit more ground balls than fly balls, with the tied-for third lowest fly ball rate in the league (34.2%, with the Pirates). They had the 12th highest soft-hit rate and the 14th lowest hard-hit rate, which led to them hitting the tied-for fewest number of home runs, five (with the Royals), though they did have the second fewest total plate appearances, so that’s not too terrible. They also scored the tied-for fewest amount of runs, 28 (with the Mariners), with five double plays, which is far too many per PA compared to the rest of the league.

    Facing an offense that was pretty poor over the course of May should help Horton stay in a nice rhythm. I think he will strike out nearly a batter per inning, walk few, limit the Pirates from scoring many runs and earn his second quality start and third win of the season.

    High-risk: Trevor Williams vs Cubs, Eric Lauer vs Phillies, Andre Pallante vs Royals, Landen Roupp vs Padres, Mike Burrows vs Astros, Kyle Hart @ Giants, Tylor Megill @ Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw vs Mets, Yusei Kikuchi @ Red Sox, Michael Lorenzen @ Cardinals, Tanner Gordon @ Marlins, Shane Smith vs Tigers, Tomoyuki Sugano @ Mariners, Jacob Lopez vs ATH, Brayan Bello vs Angels


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