08/02/2025 Early Week Streamers for August 4 – August 7

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  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on August 4, 2025 4:02 am by Anthony Kates | Published: August 4, 2025

    This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

    The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday.Ā You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

    **All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

    Monday – August 4 – Probable Starters

    Justin Verlander – SFG – @ PIT – 17%

    Look, I get it, Verlander has been pretty bad this year and didn’t get his first win of the season until his 17th start, but he is facing a dreadful Pirates offense for the second time in a week – and he pitched very well in the first matchup. He threw five innings, allowed just six hits, one earned run, one home run and one walk while striking out seven. In the month of July overall, Verlander had some good and bad numbers. He had a strikeout rate of 9/14 K/9 and a home run rate of 0.83, but a 3.74 BB/9, 5.40 ERA and a 0.412 BABIP. He was able to limit quality of contact and hard hits, with a 5.7% and 37.1% rate, respectively, while allowing more fly balls than ground balls and an elevated line drive rate. He had a 77% contact rate, but just an 81.4% zone-contact rate, even though he had a 52.7% in-zone strike rate and a 65.4% first pitch strike rate, thanks to an 11.1% swinging strike rate and a 28.1% chase rate.

    The Pirates, over the last month when facing a right-handed pitcher at home, have the third lowest wRC+, a 78, making them one of three teams under 86. They had a .286 wOBA, fourth lowest, a .655 OPS, fourth lowest, and a .120 ISO, the third lowest. They struck out just 22.4% of the time, but had a 6.2% walk rate, the third lowest. On the batted ball side, they had the sixth highest ground ball rate, third lowest fly ball rate and lowest HR/FB rate. Even though they had a top-12 hard-hit rate and the fourth lowest soft hit rate, they hit just three home runs, tied with the Rangers for the fewest, even though they had the 20th most plate appearances against a right-handed pitcher (RHP) on the road over the past month. They scored 31 runs, the 23rd most, had 24 extra base hits, the 18th most, tied with the Brewers, Cubs, Astros and Blue Jays.

    The Pirates lack of power and limited run scoring abilities make them an easy streaming target, especially when facing a starter that has already dominated them in one outing. Verlander should have close to the same success again this time, even though it will be in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates are merely marginally better than on the road.

    High-risk: Patrick Corbin vs Yankees, Bailey Falter @ Red Sox, Jason Alexander @ Marlins, Tanner Gordon vs Blue Jays, Slade Cecconi @ Mets, Mike Soroka vs Reds, Cade Povich @ Phillies, Erick Fedde vs Brewers, Zebby Matthews @ Tigers, Johan Oveido vs Giants, JP Sears @ Diamondbacks

    Tuesday – August 5 – Probable Starters

    Luis Severino – ATH – @ WAS – 22%

    Severino’s July was much better than his June, when he made six starts and allowed seven or more runs in four of them. He made five starts in July and allowed more than two runs only twice, albeit both of those games he allowed five runs, but in one of them it was just one earned run. He’s elevated his strikeout rate, to more than a strikeout per inning pitched, he has a walk rate of 2.77 BB/9 and a home run rate under one per nine innings pitched, 0.69. He has succeeded the face of a poor strand rate of just 63.3% and a slightly higher than league average BABIP of .314. He’s been able to succeed thanks to an avgEV of just 86.5 MPH, a barrel rate of 4.2% and a hard-hit rate of 38.9%, to go along with a 50.7% ground ball rate and just a 29.6% fly ball rate. Though he has allowed an 82.3% contact rate, with an 85.6% zone contact rate, he throws his pitches in the strike zone 55.7% of the time and just just an 8.5% swinging strike rate, so plenty of contact will be had.

    And he is facing a Washington Nationals team that has had one of the twelve worst offenses when facing an RHP at home over the past month. They have a 104 wRC+, the 10th lowest, tied with the Cubs, a .318 wOBA, 11th lowest and tied with the Padres, and a .726 OPS, the 12th lowest. Their .136 ISO is the 6th lowest, and their 21.1% strikeout rate is the 15th highest. On the batted ball side of things, they have the 10th lowest ground ball rate, 39%, and the eighth lowest fly ball rate, 36.5%, to go along with the 15th highest hard-hit rate and ninth highest soft hit rate, tied with the Mets. Over the last month, the Nationals have the 23rd most plate appearances against RHP at home, and have hit five home runs, the 25th most , tied with the Giants. They’ve scored 42 runs, the 11th most, tied with the Red Sox, Twins and Brewers, have hit into four double plays, 20th, tied with the four other teams and have 22 extra base hits, the eighth fewest, tied with the White Sox and Mariners.

    Severino has showed plenty of improvement in July and will look to extend his performance into August, against a below league-average offense in the Nationals. Though they have scored plenty of runs, they have struggled to hit for power or generate a bunch of extra base hits, which can make them a very boom-or-bust team.

    Chris Paddack – DET – vs MIN – 19%

    Paddack was traded from the Twins to the Tigers last week, moving from an out-of-the-playoffs Minnesota squad to the division leaders. Though he has had an up-and-down season, his last start with the Twins and first start with the Tigers were two of his best starts of the year and demonstrate the type of ceiling he has when he is able to limit base hits. Over his last five starts, all in the month of July, Paddack has thrown 27 innings, allowed 15 earned runs, four home runs and just three walks, while striking out 25 hitters. He has shown an improved ability to control his pitches, with a walk rate of 1 BB/9 in July, more than two full walks per nine innings less than the first three months of the season. He has also raised his strikeout rate, from 6.30 K/9 through June 30th, to 8.33 K/9 in the month of July. His statcast data has now been good, what with a 90.8 MPH avgEV, a 9.5% barrel rate and a 47.6% hard-hit rate, but he has been a bit unlucky, with a .338 BABIP (almost 50 points higher than league average) and a 66.9% strand rate, around six points lower than league average. The good news is he has a 31.5% chase rate and a 10.3% swinging strike rate, which supports the strikeout gains and has helped limit some of the damage done by allowing so many hits.

    Paddack will be facing his former team, the Twins, on Tuesday. Over the past month, when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road, the Twins have been a middle of the pack offense. They have a 97 wRC+, 16th in the league, a .309 wOBA, 16th, and a .700 OPS, 17th. Their ISO, .152, is 22nd, and their 28.4% strikeout rate is the second highest in the league. They do, though, have a 10.3% walk rate, which is the second highest and tied with the White Sox. The Twins have the fourth highest ground ball rate, tenth lowest fly ball rate and the fourth lowest line drive rate, 16.4%, tied with the Royals. They have the fifth fewest plate appearances on the road facing RHP over the past month and have hit just six home runs, the third fewest, while scoring 32 runs, the 10th fewest. They have ground into six double plays, the 13th most and tied with three other teams, and have hit 23 extra base hits, the sixth fewest, tied with the Orioles and Mariners.

    This is a bit of a risky stream, since Paddack is facing the team that knows him best, but then again, he knows their hitters best. With the Twins struggling to hit for power, striking out at a high rate and struggling to elevate the ball, I think Paddack will be able to find success against his former team and win a second game with his new team.

    Jose Soriano – LAA – vs TBR – 41%

    Soriano had a bit of a mixed bag of performance in July. Over six starts, he allowed two runs or less in four, but five runs each in two. But he allowed more than two EARNED runs in just one game, because in one of his five run games, the Angels defense committed three errors and he was charged with just one earned run. So, overall, the month was a very good month for Soriano. He earned two wins and four quality starts, allowed just 11 earned runs, three home runs and 15 walks while striking out 31. He ran an obscene 70% ground ball rate (season long rate 66.7%), an 18% fly ball rate and just a 12% line drive rate. Which is wonderful, because he was hit very hard, to the tune of a 50.5% hard-hit rate, and allowed a lot of quality contact, with an 11% barrel rate, but had a launch angle of -3.4 degrees, as batters just mercilessly pounded his sinker into the ground. He had a 33.3% chase rate and an 11% swinging strike rate, which makes you think he should strike out more batters, but he also ran a zone-contact rate of 90.6%, which means batters swung and miss at just 9.4% of pitches in the zone.

    Soriano is taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that was much scarier in June than they have been over the past month, as they have seen their wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching on the road drop 25 points, from 115 in June, to 90 from July 3until today. That wRC+ is the 11th lowest in the league, supported by a .299 wOBA, 11th lowest, and a .685 OPS, 10th lowest and tied with the Guardians. Their .113 ISO was the third lowest, their 6.6% walk rate was the seventh lowest and their 21.1% strikeout rate was the twelfth lowest. On the batted ball side of things, they had the 11th highest ground ball rate, the fifth lowest fly ball rate, but the fourth highest line drive rate. They had just a 30.8% hard hit rate, the seventh lowest, and a 17.5% soft-hit rate, tied with the Royals for the third highest. The Rays had the most plate appearances on the road against right-handed pitching over the past month, with 473, making them one of just three teams with more than 400 plate appearances, yet they hit just eight home runs, 22nd most and tied with the Orioles, Pirates and Cardinals, and scored 46 runs, the 12th most. They ground into 10 double plays, second most and tied with the Rangers, and had 33 extra base hits, 19th most, tied with the Mets, Athletics and Mariners.

    Soriano limits home runs, induces more ground balls than any other starter in the league and has done a good job of run prevention over the past month. The Rays have struggled to hit for power, struggled to score runs, struggled to get on base and over generate much offensively. With a modest three game quality start streak on the line, I think Soriano is able to go out and limit a fourth different team to less than three runs over six or more innings and keep the ball in the park for the fifth time over seven outings.

    Emmett Sheehan – LAD – vs STL – 14%

    Sheehan’s short time in the big leagues this year has been a bit all over the map. He has made four starts and had two relief appearances, has thrown five innings only twice but also had both of his relief appearances last at least 3.2 innings. So over his six total appearances (five in July and one in June) he has thrown a total of 25 innings, allowed 10 earned runs, with half of those runs coming in one start, allowed just one home run and 10 walks, while striking out 26. The walk rate and home run rate are much better than his 2023 MLB debut and his minor league numbers, but the strikeout rate is down, though it is still a 9.36 K/9, which is great. He has been struck by a poor strand rate, 60.8%, which is more than 10 points lower than league average, and a BABIP of just .299, which is right around league average. He has been a fly ball heavy pitcher, with a 50% fly ball rate and a 26.5% line drive rate, but pitches in a very pitcher friendly home stadium, which has helped limit damage from his statcast numbers: 91.2 MPH avgEV, 7.4% barrel rate and a 41.2% hard-hit rate. The good news is that the strikeout rate is full supported by opposing hitter swing decisions, as they have chased pitches out of the zone at a 30.3% rate and have a 13.3% swinging strike rate, while making contact just 73.7% of the time.

    He is facing a Cardinals team that has been one of the worst teams in the league when facing a right-hander on the road, as they have just an 85 wRC+, the seventh lowest in the league. Their .292 wOBA and .664 OPS are also the seventh lowest, though their .139 ISO is the eighth lowest and their 6.3% walk rate is the fourth lowest. Their strikeout rate, though, is just 18.2% and the sixth lowest in the league. They have hit slightly more fly balls than ground balls, with a 42.8% fly ball rate, the fourth highest, and a 39% ground ball rate, the fifth lowest, with just an 18.2% line drive rate, the ninth lowest in the league. They have the 11th lowest hard-hit rate and the ninth highest soft hit rate, resulting in eight home runs, the 22nd most, tied with the Orioles, Rays and Pirates. They had the 21st most plate appearances against righties on the road over the past month and scored just 30 runs, the seventh fewest and tied with the Reds, ground into 11 double plays, the most in the league, and had 25 extra base hits, ninth fewest, tied with the Guardians and Dodgers.

    The risk with this start is that Sheehan could throw less than five innings, thus not qualifying for a win, but the upside is more than a strikeout per innings, limiting runs and home runs and walking away with an easy Dodgers win. Against a Cardinals team that has struggled to score runs, struggled to get on base and has a hard time moving runners over, Sheehan should find plenty of success.

    High-risk: Joey Wentz vs Brewers, Dean Kremer @ Phillies, Davis Martin @ Mariners, Logan Allen @ Mets, Logan Allen @ Mets, Kyle Freeland vs Blue Jays, Lance McCullers Jr. @ Marlins, Ryan Bergert @ Red Sox, Cal Quantrill vs Astros, Taijuan Walker vs Orioles, Mike Burrows vs Giants, Miles Mikolas @ Dodgers, Will Warren @ Rangers


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    August 4, 2025, 12:49 am