This year, we’ve decided to do two streaming articles a week for our premium subscribers. The podcast only provides one day of streamers at a time (a day ahead), whereas the streamer articles will provide three and four day streaming outlooks, giving you a leg up on those non-premium Sports Ethos members (and those in your league who don’t use Sports Ethos at all…even though they should).

The articles will come out every Sunday and every Thursday. As I will be producing Sunday’s article, at the time it is published, it will have the most up-to-date information for Monday through Wednesday’s pitching schedules and streams. If there are any changes, the article will be updated to reflect that, so check back daily. On Monday night, I’ll update Wednesdays streamers, as I have more information and less TBD spots on the schedule. On Tuesday night, I will update and post any streams for Thursday, as there will be more information available for the few Thursday games we will have and there should be no TBD spots on the schedule for that day.

You will notice that I have very few single digit percentage rostered players during the early part of the week and that’s because I do not want to assume a ton of risk early in the week. There is zero reason to be desperate before Friday, at the earliest, so there is zero reason to take on any kind of high risk stream. But, if you DO want to have risk on a daily basis with your streams, I will highlight the low-rostered and/or high risk streams that might have a modicum of upside, but I wouldn’t personally start, after I’ve discussed the streams I do recommend.

**All stats for Monday and Tuesday streamers are through Friday’s games, Wednesday’s and Thursday’s are through Monday’s games.**

Monday – April 28th – Probable Starters

***We have a TBD for the Cardinals @ the Reds, so I will keep my eyes and ears open to update this as soon as that changes***

JP Sears – ATH – @ TEX – 17%

Fresh off of facing the Rangers in Sacramento, Sears is going to kick off week five facing the Rangers in Arlington. He has three quality starts on the year, out of five total starts, has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any game and has been pretty good at limiting walks. In fact, his walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up and home runs are just going to be a problem for him. He’s allowed four home runs in 28 innings and has a history of allowing too many long balls in the big leagues. Last time out, he limited the Rangers to two earned runs over five innings, with one home run, one walk and five strikeouts.

The Rangers, for their part, are just below average against LHP, with a 94 wRC+ over 201 PA. They are middle of the pack in wOBA (.296), OPS (.666), walk rate (8.5%) and have the ninth highest strikeout rate (25.4%). They hit more fly balls than ground balls, but have the ninth lowest line drive rate (16.8%). The have the highest hard hit rate (42.1%) of all teams and the tied-fr sixth lowest soft hit rate (13.5%) which has led to six home runs, but just 16 total runs scored against LHP.

They are slightly better at home than on the road against LHP, but it is too small of a sample size to lean too heavily on. I don’t expect Sears to have an elite start, but he could replicate his start from last week and walk away with a win (or, another inning and a quality start).

Gavin Williams – CLE – vs MIN – 41%

Unlike with LHP, teams have enough PA against RHP that we can start to differentiate between home and away data. And the Twins, away from home and facing RHP, are not a great offense. They have an 81 wRC+, .278 wOBA (seventh lowest), .620 OPS (sixth lowest) and a .278 OBP (fifth lowest). They also have the best strikeout rate (just 18%), but a middle of the pack walk rate (7.8%). They hit more ground balls than fly balls, have the worst line drive rate in the league (12.8%) and middle of the pack soft and hard contact rates. They have the seventh least amount of PA’s against RHP on the road, but they are tied-for 16th most home runs and have the tenth least amount of runs. Not really a scary team for righties pitching at home.

Williams is currently striking a batter per inning, but has struggled with his control, leading to a high BB/9 (4.15) and a career worst HR/9 (1.38). He’s allowed four home runs in 26 innings, after allowing just 15 home runs over his first 158 innings. His chase rate is up (31.2%), swinging strike rate is up (14%) and his contact rate is way down (from 78.8% to 71.4%). The statcast data is a scary sight (9.9% barrel, 40.8% hard-hit, 91.1 MPH avgEV), but I think his profile overall should play very well against an offense that struggles on the road.

High-risk: Tomoyuki Sugano vs Yankees, Nick Martinez vs Cardinals, German Marquez vs Braves, Ronel Blanco vs Tigers, Edward Cabrera @ Dodgers, Will Warren @ Orioles, Kumar Rocker vs Athletics, Trevor Williams vs Mets, Griffin Canning @ Nationals

Tuesday – April 29th- Probable Starters

David Peterson – NYM – vs ARI – 32%

Peterson is off to a pretty good start for the Mets, even if he does just have one win in five starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start, has two nine strikeout games and, after allowing eight walks over 10.2 innings in his first start, has walked only one batter of his last 16.2 innings and three starts. He also hasn’t allowed a home run since his first game of the year and has performed as well as he has in spite of a .354 BABIP and a 25.3% line drive rate. He’s boasting a career best 55.7% ground ball rate, 2.96 BB/9, 6.2% barrel rate and a 30.9% chase rate. There is some scary data, most notably an 82.8% contact rate, a 51.9% hard-hit rate and a 91.9 MPH avgEV, all of which would be career highs by far. A high contact rate alone isn’t a scary thing (Logan Webb lives in the 80% range and is one of the 25 or so best pitchers in the big leagues), but add in the high avgEV and hard-hit rate, and there’s some fear involved in every start.

Though the Diamondbacks are below average against LHP overall (84 wRC+, .293 wOBA, .644 OPS), they have the fifth best walk rate (11.3%) and the lowest strikeout rate (14.7%). Not to mention, in a 97 PA sample size, they’ve been better on the road than at home against LHP. Even then, they have only hit four home runs and scored 24 runs over 266 PA, middle of the pack for a middle of the pack amount of PA. There is some risk in this start, because the Diamondbacks offense could absolutely explode at any minute, but that happens far more often against RHP than it does LHP.

I expect Peterson to have a decent start and the best team in baseball to provide enough run support that he can win his second game of the season.

Tony Gonsolin – LAD – vs MIA – 8%

The last time we saw Tony G. on an MLB mound was 2023. He missed the entirety of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and recovery and then missed the first four-plus weeks of the 2025 season due to back tightness. But he’s been on the rehab trail and it looks like he will be making his 2025 debut on Tuesday against an average at best Marlins team. I don’t know what to expect from Gonsolin which is why this is a STASH & HOLD and not an actual stream. His 2023 season was his worst, by far, with the lowest swinging strike rate, one of the highest fly ball rates, one of the lowest ground ball rates, worst HR/9 and a terrible barrel+hard-hit rate combo. He looked decent over four Triple-A rehab starts and he can hopefully career over that performance to his first start of 2025.

Miami has a 100 wRC+ on the road versus RHP, which is tenth best, with a .316 wOBA and .711 OPS (both ninth best), but they have the third highest strikeout rate (28.1%) and the seventh lowest walk rate (7%). They hit more ground balls Nathan fly balls, but have a very good line drive rate of 24.9%. They have the 10th highest hard-hit rate and the 13th highest soft-hit rate, which has led to a middle of the pack home run total (nine) even though they have the second fewest PA, with the 15th most runs scored. So they’ve excelled over a small sample size, but struggle to get on base and strikeout too much.

Expecting more than 80 or so pitches from Gonsolin may be a bit much, so I doubt he pitches more than four innings. But if the innings look good, then he will get a shot to go deeper in his next start and when Gonsolin is pitching good, he is a top 40 starter in the league.

Reese Olson – DET – @ HOU – 27%

The Astros have been a middle of the pack team against LHP pitching, with an 89 wRC+ (14th lowest), a .290 wOBA (tied-for eleventh with the Guardians), .641 OPS (tenth worst), but the fourth lowest strikeout rate (20.3%) and more fly balls than ground balls. The problem with those fly balls is that they are not hitting them hard enough, with just a 23.3% hard-hit rate, lowest in baseball, and a 17.4% soft-hit rate, ninth highest. But, they’ve also faced lefties fewer than any other team, so their lack of home runs (three) and runs scored (15) is more due to the fact they have 37 less PA than any other team and less due to overall performance (though both are a factor).

Olson has been on a mini-heater, with back to back shutout appearances, with 12.2 consecutive innings without allowing a run. He’s striking out just shy of one batter per inning, has dramatically limited home runs (only one allowed over 27.1 innings and it was in his first start), is inducing more ground balls than fly balls and has not benefited from much batted ball luck. His avgEV and hard-hit rate are not great, even if his barrel rate is just at 5.3%, but his contact rate is just 72.3% and he’s got a decent chase (30.1%) and swinging strike rate (11.8%).

The Astros have struggled all year long, with Yordan Alvarez trying to unlock his production and Yainer Diaz struggling period, which leads me to believe that Olson will have another solid outing, as the Tigers take the second game of the series in Houston.

High-risk: Miles Mikolas @ Reds, Andrew Heaney vs Cubs, Chris Paddack @ Guardians, Jack Kochanowicz @ Mariners, Ryan Gusto vs Tigers, Chase Dollander vs Braves, Jairo Iriarte vs Brewers, Sean Newcomb @ Blue Jays, Cade Povich vs Yankees, Bryce Elder @ Rockies, Eduardo Rodriguez @ Mets, JT Ginn @ Rangers, Emerson Hancock vs LAA

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