Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor are making history in their own ways, fighting for an MVP award and a place in the postseason. While hotly contested two horse races are nothing new (in fact, the American league could have one this year), the disparity in where the value of each candidate is provided has no recent precedent. I’ll examine the case for both Lindor and Ohtani, what they’ll need to do in the last two weeks to win it and how their fantasy value projects for next year, regardless of the outcome of the award.

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Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani‘s offensive output is as good as it’s ever been, posting a .992 OPS with 47 home runs and 48 steals over 656 plate appearances. In prime position to record the first ever season with 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases, Ohtani is also vying to become the first full time DH to win the MVP award.

Yet somehow, even with all of his outstanding offensive numbers, Ohtani is one of the unluckier hitters in the league, based off the disparity between his expected and actual stats. Ohtani’s .292 average is 20 points lower than expected, and his slugging percentage is 37 points lower than his .654 xSLG.

Ohtani would’ve walked away with the MVP in a landslide if he were pitching to at least an adequate level this season, although it’s fair to wonder whether his sustained excellence is related to the far reduced physical and mental toll of DH’ing.

As eye catching as the expected data is, don’t bank on it playing a major role in MVP voting. Still, his offensive numbers are easily the best in the National League, and if it weren’t for Luis Arraez, he’d have a real shot at a triple crown. If the season ended today, Ohtani would likely win the award; to ensure he gets it, he’ll have to reach that historic 50/50 plateau, and ideally keep the gap in fWAR (Ohtani has 7.0 to Lindor’s 7.4) to within .8.

Ohtani is the slam dunk #1 overall pick in ESPN leagues given his utility as a two way player, but I’d exercise some caution in picking him 1/1 in Yahoo leagues as a DH, given the potential for his bat to slow down as he returns to the mound.

As a pitcher, he should be viewed as a 3rd starter with upside; owners should expect an adaptation period in his return from a second Tommy John surgery. The worst case scenario (other than reinjury) is that he struggles on both sides of the ball, enough to convince the Dodgers to scrap his two-way status prematurely. Expect innings limitations, which will be aided by a six man rotation next season, but the upside is still there for an early/mid-round selection.

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is enjoying his best season as a New York Met so far, holding an .832 OPS at shortstop with 27 steals and an NL infielder leading 17 Outs Above Average. Lindor is one of seven players to have played in every one of his team’s games so far, and leads MLB in plate appearances as a result.

Lindor’s 135 WRC+ is enough to aid his NL-leading 7.4 fWAR, and Lindor has an even greater discrepancy between his expected and actual statistics than Ohtani. An 18 point increase in his .268 batting average might be enough to satiate the baseball purists, and his .049 difference in SLG to xSLG is even more significant.

From a traditionalist perspective, Lindor has the leg up of playing every single day, leading off and manning a key position to a Platinum Glove level. Especially when pitted against a DH, posting and defense matters. As cynical as it may sound, voters will likely hold the handful of games that Ohtani missed earlier in the season with back troubles against him, furthering a narrative that his current role coddles him.

From an analytical perspective, Lindor has the edge in fWAR going his way, with the Fangraphs version of the stat favored amongst voters for its performance based algorithm, opposed to the results based formula of Baseball Reference. Obviously the defensive metrics love him, and the expected stats will buff his offensive profile to suggest his OPS should really be closer to .900, which it has been well clear of over last three months.

Despite many of these advantages, the reality is that Lindor faces an uphill battle to catch Shohei Ohtani in the MVP race, especially if he reaches 50/50. The gap in offensive numbers is significant, enough to probably dissuade voters from continuing with the precedent of not voting for designated hitters, but there are two ways Lindor can catapult himself as option 1B, or even better.

Lindor’s case is helped by his progressively improving stats, providing the optic that he’s leveled up his game when it matters the most. He’ll need to finish strong to maintain this narrative, and to maintain his solid lead in fWAR. He won’t catch Ohtani in home runs, stolen bases or OPS, but he could shorten the gap enough for voters to think about.

Above all else, in order for Francisco Lindor to win the MVP award, the Mets must make the playoffs. A Lindor victory would be predicated upon his “carrying” of a team to the postseason, expanding his influence and value beyond any quantifiable means. This is particularly important for those who emphasize value when voting, comparing the status of Ohtani on one of baseball’s best teams, to Lindor playing for a fringe playoff team in a huge market. The recent struggles of Alonso and Nimmo have placed the spotlight firmly on Lindor, and so far so good, but it has to continue.

Lindor does not command the same fantasy value as Ohtani due to the well rounded nature of his game, but this year will rightfully make him a late first round to second round option next season. With a lead off position in an excellent lineup solidified, the counting stats should carry him at the very least, with potential to improve upon this season offensively with some further reduction in chase.

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