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June 2, 2025, 10:58 amLast Updated on June 2, 2025 11:05 am by Jon Marsales | Published: June 2, 2025
The Buffalo Bills are chasing history and not in a good way. They are once again staring down the barrel of being one of the best teams to never win a Super Bowl. It’s hard to really find fault with any decision making apparatus in the franchise as they seem to be a victim of bad luck and circumstance. They’ve managed to retool on the fly, shipping out big names, putting money in the right places and drafting well, but they were literally inches short this past season and 13 seconds away a couple season previous. The margins are that thin when it comes to beating Patrick Mahomes. Each season is a mix of Groundhog Day and Charlie Brown, but Buffalo fans remain eternally optimistic that this is their year because of Josh Allen. He somehow finds more room in the ceiling to keep growing with the caveat that each soul-crushing loss season after season is not his fault. If we are being honest, last season was a bit of a gap year as the team moved on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and tried to patch together the WRs on the back of their superstar QB. The best part of being a perpetual contending team is iron sharpens iron and Khalil Shakir (WR38) emerged as a legit weapon out of the slot with sure hands and the trust of Allen. He led the team in targets and really separated himself from the herd. Now, he just needs to find the end zone as his four TDs were still two behind Jalen Nailor and Andrei Iosivas, who were at best third options on their respective teams. With everything in fantasy and life there is a push-and-pull. The Bills pivoted from being star-centric and it worked as they were a top-five offense in points, first downs, rushing TDs and cut down on TOs so much that they actually led the league in protecting the ball. The downside was outside of Josh Allen and James Cook, there weren’t really any fantasy standouts. The Lions had a similar offense and had roughly seven players that dramatically helped your fantasy team. Now Cook is unsigned after he tied for the league lead in RB rushing TDs after only two the season before last. Cook is great and the Bills will miss him if they can’t agree to a new deal, but they are now a team driven by depth and Ray Davis showed enough that he can step in and Allen will simply pick up the slack.
Player most likely to beat ADP: Keon Coleman (ADP 70, WR47)
Coleman (WR68) displayed enough ability catching balls down the sideline last season for me to believe he can make the leap as a sophomore. The best part about drafting Coleman is getting the Allen stack and without any competing elite WRs to dominate the target share. Coleman could be a bust, but his YPC (19.2) was very promising and simply needs to add more routes to his tree.
Player most likely to fade based on ADP: James Cook (ADP 30, RB12)
Cook had a massive season with a huge TD spike (16 rushing), but he’s now a free agent and may or may not return to the Bills this season. There isn’t a better situation for him in the league playing in a run-heavy offense with Josh Allen attracting the defense. He may hold out for the summer and return or could find himself on a new team, either way there is too much risk to take him this high.
Late-round Flier that could blow up: Tyler Johnson (ADp 290, RB87)
This is obviously tied to Cook leaving, but it’s a great lottery ticket in case Cook doesn’t resign. The natural replacement is Ray Davis (126, RB43) and he will also be great sans Cook, but Johnson is going undrafted and has huge potential as a pass-catching back as the Bills are more of a ball-control, dink-and-dunk offense that doesn’t make any mistakes.
Writer’s Season Win Prediction: 14-3
Allen finally won the MVP and had his best season, but it was clear the Bills made a conscious decision to ease some of the burden off his arms and legs. He had nearly a 100 less passing attempts than any of his previous five seasons and thus was under 4000 yards passing for the first time since 2019. The passing numbers took a hit, but the efficiency more than made up for it as Allen went from leading the league with 18 INTs two seasons ago to six last season. The two stats stat that best describe the Bills’ offense is that they were second in total points scored (30.9), but 28th in plays-per-game. This was a very balanced offense (48/52 run/pass), that didn’t make mistakes, was always in control and scored with a ruthless efficiency. Allen is the rock that this offense is built upon and Buffalo was able to keep him dominating (QB2) and upright. He had at least 10 less rushes than any of the past three seasons, but scored the second-most rushing TDs of his career. It goes without saying that this version of Allen is the best for Buffalo both long term and to finish the season strong, but is it the best for his fantasy value? Allen won the MVP, but Lamar Jackson scored nearly 50 more fantasy points on the season. Allen is great and will continue to be great, but the upper QB echelon tier is no longer a three-man glut at the top. Allen essentially averaged as many points as Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield and while he had two monster games near the end of the season ( Week 14 51.9 FP and Week 15 41.3), he’s more of a high-floor stud than a ceiling one with this new offensive strategy. He had six games under 200 passing yards and sat several 4th quarter as the Bills were just too dominant this past season. That won’t change this season and if anything the offense might be even sharper with progression from Keon Coleman and whatever they can get from Dalton Kincaid. Without a true second star, this offense is a bit of an anomaly and if we assume Cook is gone, there will be 10-15 TDs up for grabs. I wrote last year that Cook had a chance to be the RB1, he finished as the RB8, but also had 16 rushing TDs. Ray Davis is the ultimate mystery box because with Cook, he’s a high-end backup RB with huge potential if Cook were to get hurt. If Cook signs somewhere else, he will shoot up the draft boards exponentially and will swing leagues depending on where you drafted him.
The passing game is biggest unknown in this offense and while there was a clear mandate to run the ball last season, it’s still Josh Allen. The BUF WRs and TEs were 21st in FPPG, which was a huge fall from grace and more likely a one-off than a concerning trend. Khalil Shakir was the best of the rest, but he’s another high-floor player without much of a ceiling. He only had one WR1 finish last season and it was still only the WR10. Without a true WR1 on the roster or someone to dominate targets, Shakir should again be very steady as he had at least five targets in all but two games. If you bank on a little positive TD regression, Shakir is being drafted around WR40, but could finish as the WR20 with just a little luck.
Coleman is the x-factor that could level up his own fantasy value and take this offense into the next stratosphere. The raw numbers don’t jump off the page, 29 receptions for 556 yards and four TDs, but fantasy isn’t always linear. It’s about usage and opportunity and with Amari Cooper looking washed and Mack Hollins heading to NE, Coleman should be the only real deep threat in an offense that used to excel attacking downfield. His YPC was nearly double that of Shakir (19.2 to 10.8) and if the mid-season wrist injury didn’t happen, who knows how high Coleman would have progressed. The second-year breakout is real and there are few players in the entire league with a defined road map to fantasy stardom. Coleman is already part of a high-powered offense, isn’t fighting for targets and has arguably the best QB in the league throwing darts to him. There are so many high-end sophomore WRs and while Coleman isn’t in the same league as Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., when the season is said and done, he could have similar numbers.
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