Come one, come all! Welcome to yet another way to break down fantasy football. I hope you enjoy this riveting experience of conscious thought put into word form. Today’s topic of discussion centers around the risk/reward and the safety certain players provide. I mean, come on now, who doesn’t like shooting for the moon? These are the players drafting hoping to hit their immense ceilings. But you’ve got to be prepared for the misfires that come crashing down to earth. Queue the safety net, or the meat and potatoes of your roster, to ensure a floor is there to prevent you from hitting rock bottom. Of course, every player has a ceiling and a floor, but there are some guys that are drafted to boom, while others are drafted to keep you afloat during a down week. I’ve identified some of my favorite ceiling guys, as well as floor guys, to try and help you shape the perfect combination.

Public Service Announcement: The ceiling team is not necessarily an endorsement. Likewise, the floor list is not a fade list. There’s pros and cons to both, and it’s important to try and strike a balance between risk and safety when it comes to building your fantasy roster.

Want to get access to the Anthony’s articles? You’ll need to have a SportsEthos NFL FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!  

All Ceiling – Efficiency Reigns Supreme

QB: Anthony Richardson, IND

QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

RB: De’Von Achane, MIA

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, DET

WR: Deebo Samuel, SF

WR: Amari Cooper, CLE

WR: Christian Watson, GB

TE: George Kittle, SF

FLX: WR Xavier Worthy, KC

HMs: WR AJ Brown, PHI; RB Chase Brown, CIN; TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, WR Gabe Davis, JAX; RB Raheem Mostert, MIA

QB: Richardson and Tagovailoa are the two headed dynamite duo when it comes to true ceilings. AR rushing ability was on full display last season during the few games he did play, and boy is he fun to watch. In his two fully healthy games his rookie season, he finished as QB2 and QB4. When clicking the draft button here, you’re doing so for what could be THE QB1 by a comfortable margin, not a middling QB10-14 finish. Tua’s ceiling is met in a different way. He doesn’t run, at all. However, the Miami offense sets him up to explode any given week with their elite, high flying, speedy core of weapons. In the seven games Tua finished as a QB1 in 2023, the Dolphins averaged a whopping 39.3 points per game. He had finishes of QB1, 2, 12, 3, 9, 12, and 10. In the other ten games where Tua finished as QB15 or worse, Miami scored 22.1 points per game. In no game did he have more than five rushing attempts or 15 rushing yards. Instead, he has games where he throws for 300 or 400 yards with three or four touchdowns.

RB: One of them just so happens to be the RB1 of the All-Ceiling team and that’s De’Von Achane. Putting up a 50-point game will get you on this team regardless of what the rest of the year looked like. Achane didn’t play more than 63% of the snaps on any given week, but was able to put up five top five finishes anyway. Otherwise, he’s looking like a back end RB2 or worse. Gibbs is a hyper-efficient back who’s ceiling comes in PPR leagues due to his role as the pass catching back and his elite elusiveness in the open field. He was a frequent resident of the weekly top-three running backs, doing so an impressive six times. His floor isn’t as low as Achane’s, generally ending up as a backend RB2/flex, but we’re going for those sweet top-three weeks when drafting Gibbs.

WR: Deebo has been climbing up draft boards all offseason, and with good reason. With six WR1 weeks, including two inside the top-two, Samuel is able to score touchdowns through the air (seven in 2023) or on the ground (five in 2023). With rumblings of an Aiyuk trade to Pittsburgh or holdout while the 49ers work through contract talks, Deebo’s value could increase even more, giving him more opportunity to make magic happen on the field and in your lineup. Amari Cooper is the quintessential ceiling play at WR. He has week-winning performances, only to disappear the next week. Over the past two seasons, he has 10 weeks inside the top-14 WRs, topping out at WR1 and adding three other top five finishes. He does have some weeks of WR2/3 numbers, finishing between WR18 and WR30 on eight occasions. That leaves us with 14 games of Cooper going missing. If Christian Watson can stay healthy, he’s shown us his ability to break into the WR1 category any given week. It only happened twice in an injury plagued 2023. However, if you look at his rookie season the year before, he topped out at WR3, finishing inside the top 13 five weeks in a row midway through the year.  The floor is low, as he didn’t have a week above WR40 otherwise.. Worthy is a bit of a projection, but even the Chiefs didn’t draft him as a safe option. The fastest man in NFL history was brought in to light up the scoreboard with long touchdowns, and that’s exactly what he should provide your fantasy team.

TE: George Kittle is the Cooper of tight ends, having the ability to score three touchdowns this week, and only run three routes the next. He’s got nine top eight finishes, and seven as the TE22 or worse . Much of the same, to a lesser extreme, for 2022 with weeks inside the top 5-12, and a few as TE 15 plus. San Francisco’s offense has a lot of pieces, and relies quite a bit on running back Christian McCaffery, but when George Kittle is a big part of the game plan, big things happen.

All Floor – Volume Is King

QB: Kyler Murray, AZ

QB: Jared Goff, DET

RB: James Conner, AZ

RB: Zamir White, LV

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET

WR: Michael Pittman, Jr., IND

WR: Terry McLaurin, WSH

TE: Evan Engram, JAX

FLX: RB Devin Singletary, NYG

HMs: RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR; TE Dalton Schultz, HOU; TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT; RB Joe Mixon, HOU; QB Daniel Jones, NYG; QB Jared Goff, DET

QB: Kyler Murray is a high upside, high floor play. Going back all the way to 2020, Murray only has two games where he failed to put up double digit fantasy points. Over the past two seasons, he’s played a total of 18 games thanks to an ACL tear in the middle of 2022. In the games he did play, he finished no worse than QB23, while regularly slotting in between QB3-19. A lot of Murray’s fantasy game is predicated on his ability to run the ball. When he came back from injury last season, he didn’t show any hesitancy in that department. He had at least five carries in all but one game, topping out at nine. Expect an uptick in that now that he’s another year removed from surgery. In 2022, he ran between 5-12 times. Those few extra carries matter and can boost his floor even higher. We all know Jared Goff is better at home in the friendly confines of the dome in Detroit. This season, he’ll get to play indoors in 14 games. His first season in Detroit was a bit of a mixed bag, but once he and the organization got on track, he played exceptionally well overall. In 2022 and 2023 combined, he only has four games with single digit fantasy points. Goff has provided weekly top end QB1 upside with the safety net of QB11-20 more times than not when he misses. Going into his fourth season now with the Lions, this one with a freshly signed contract, Goff should continue to be a nice safety blanket to target after the top tier QB’s go off the board.

RB: James Conner has turned the perception of his career around the past few seasons in Arizona, and the volume he gets is a big part of that. Last season, he finished among the top-12 RBs in snaps per game, which was a bit lower than in 2022 when he finished second only to Saquon Barkley. Last year he dealt with an injury, which may have skewed some results factoring in a ramp up period upon return. Conner is also a talented pass catcher out of the backfield, generally earning between 3-5 targets a game. In PPR leagues, targeting guys like that is an easy way to ensure a safe floor week in and week out. Zamir White hasn’t had too much meaningful game action to have a historical pattern, so this one is a bit of a projection. In the four games he started last season, he played at least 70% of the snaps in three of them. He finished between RB 12-20, scoring between 13-17 points. While he did earn 13 targets and eight receptions in those four games, he didn’t manage to do a whole lot with it, going for 60 total yards with no scores. Las Vegas has some depth behind White, including known pass catcher Ameer Abdullah, so I’m not sure White will be in on many obvious passing downs. The Raiders seem like they want to run the ball a lot, and White is the clear starter. If he continues to play almost 70% of the offensive plays and sees 20 plus opportunities as he did in all four starts last season, he could produce a nice baseline week in and week out. Devin Singletary feels like the ideal floor player candidate. There’s no flash, pazazz, big plays, or anything like that. Just hand this man the rock and let him plow forward for a few yards a pop. While he’s had a few total duds over the years, Singletary has finished as an RB3 or better in 22 of his 33 games played over the past two years. That’s impressive consistency. Joining the New York Giants this past offseason, he should have the starting job locked down to open the season and is likely going to hold the early down/goal line work based on the lack of proven depth behind him. We all like to make fun of the Giants offense, but they’ve (on paper) improved their offensive line (again), and don’t have many strong options in the passing game, making Singletary a likely very important piece of the puzzle.

WR: In case you’re new to the Sports Ethos Fantasy Draft Kit, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been my guy all offseason long. I have him ranked as my number-two overall wide receiver in my positional rankings, and it’s because he’s so safe, but yet can also provide some ceiling. He’s the clear alpha on an offense that was among one of the best in all of football, and that continues to be the expectations rolling into the new season. He saw no less than six passes thrown his way in any given game, while seeing at least eight targets in 13 of 16 games played. Oh, and he went over the century mark in yards over half the time (9/16 games). Even in the seven games he didn’t get 100 yards, he scored a touchdown in six of them. Whether it’s by sheer volume, yardage, or finding the end zone, ARSB gets it done week in and week out, finishing inside the top-20 in all but three games. He’s the perfect first round pick for managers who prefer to play it safe in the early rounds. I’d be happy drafting him inside the top five overall. Michael Pittman, Jr. enjoyed a breakout campaign last season, cementing himself as a true WR1 and a my guy alongside ARSB this season. He hit double digit fantasy points 13 of 16 games played, finishing as a WR3 or better in 12 of those 16 games. Those are the types of numbers you expect when you have nine games with 11 or more targets. I love the Shane Steichen offense for fantasy purposes due to the condensed nature of it. In 2022 when he was with the Philadelphia Eagles as their OC, he had AJ Brown (WR4) and DeVonta Smith (WR10) finishing as top ten wide receivers, a mobile QB in Jalen Hurts finish as QB3, and an RB15 finish for Miles Sanders. I’m expecting the offense in Indianapolis, featuring QB Anthony Richardson at the helm, to look similar, with Pittman being the AJ Brown. Terry McLaurin finally gets a (presumably) talented QB in rookie Jayden Daniels, so things should trend up. For now, McLaurin finds himself on the All-Floor team as our WR3, where he spends a fair amount of his time in the weekly positional rankings after Sunday’s games are over. Over the past two years, he’s only got four top 10 weekly finishes with 13 weeks as a WR2/3. Things can get a little bleak, with 11 finishes outside the top 40, but let’s just blame that on poor QB play. He’s gotten at least five targets in all but four games in 2022 and 2023 combined, so the volume is there. With better QB play, McLaurin should be able to do a bit more without increasing his workload. Factor in that the Commanders just traded Jahan Dotson, and there’s no one left that makes me worried about McLaurin’s role.

TE: Evan Engram has revived his career after leaving the Giants for sunny Jacksonville to play for the Jaguars, with 2023 being his best year yet. He was a huge part of the offense’s success, earning at least five targets in all 17 games. In fact, he was thrown the ball at least seven times in 13 of those 17 games. There were only four games where Engram wasn’t a TE1, giving us a high floor, which is always better than a low floor. He seems to be as safe as safe gets at such a volatile position. Drafting Engram in the middle rounds feels like locking in a TE1 every single week