2026 Fantasy Baseball Busts – Relief Pitchers

​

  • By SportsEthos Staff

    Last Updated on January 27, 2026 3:39 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: January 27, 2026

    Relievers are probably the most volatile position group in fantasy.

    Not only do they carry the same injury risk that most pitchers have, they work in incredibly small samples.

    Literally five bad innings can result in a closer losing his job for the rest of the year in April.

    Committees can pop up at any time if a manager decides they want to use their closer early in games to get through more important moments in games that may arise prior to the ninth.

    Knowing which arms arms to avoid from this position group is extremely important.

    Let’s dive into our choices.

    Larry Vannozzi

    Raisel Iglesias – ADP – 88.73/P33

    Does it make sense to draft Raisel Iglesias at his 79 ADP (January 16)?

    Ummm…. no.

    He barely topped that rank during his glorious *2024* season (34 saves, 1.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP).

    How about 2025?

    He salvaged his season with an outstanding second half. However, I just can’t rid my mind of his awful first half. By the end of June, Iglesias had five losses, hideous ratios (5.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP) and was just 9-of-13 in save opportunities.

    He was so bad that he lost the closer role. Luckily for him, the Braves couldn’t find success with their remaining relievers so they eventually gave Iglesias a second chance. He won’t be that lucky this year because the Braves took out an insurance policy by signing Robert Suarez who saved 76 games for the Padres in the past two years.

    If (when?) the 36-year-old Iglesias falters again, Suarez will take over and prevent a second chance for Iglesias.

    Carlos Estevez – ADP – 88.81/P34

    Estévez signed a 2-year deal with the Royals ahead of the 2025 season and paid immediate dividends. He saved more games than anyone in MLB (career-high 42!) and had great ratios that included a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Add up all of that success and you get a 142 ranking per FanGraphs’ Player Rater.

    Nice job, Carlos! However, the problem is that his ADP (85 on January 16) is much too rich.

    Can you really expect him to lead MLB in saves again this year?

    I feel strongly that the answer is “no” because he benefitted from much better than average LOB and FB/HR rates while significantly outperforming his advanced metrics (xERA, FIP and xFIP were all at least a full run higher than his actual ERA).

    Also, he won’t be helped as Kauffman Stadium’s walls are being lowered and moved inward.

    Jeff Clowers

    Emilio Pagan – ADP – 138.06/P53

    The bet I’m making on Pagan is that the Reds would be smart to move him for a prospect return given their projected record.

    Though he’s coming off a 32-save season, he strikes me as the exact type of player that a contending team acquires as their setup man behind their current closer.

    If that happens, he immediately loses all value outside of SVHD leagues and selecting a reliever who may only rosterable for half the year as the 18th reliever off the board is too pricey for my tastes.

    Jeff Hoffman – ADP – 123.77/P45

    Hoffman’s first season in Toronto went poorly and the lasting memory for fans will undoubtedly be his blown save in Game 7 of the World Series.

    Whether or not it’s fair to ding him significantly for the result of one at-bat, the tea leaves provided by Blue Jays management during the offseason suggests they’re likely to go with a closer-by-committee in 2026 after Hoffman held the reins solo, en route to 33 saves in 2025.

    Selecting a player who may not even be his team’s primary option with a 13th-round pick seems unnecessarily risky for my tastes.

    Nathan Baker

    Robert Suarez – ADP – 138.84/P54

    I could write about how Robert Suarez is old, overly reliant on his fastball, or wobbled at the end of last season, but I actually like his outlook for next season quite a bit, and his presence in front of Raisel Iglesias should make that Braves bullpen fairly formidable.

    But he’s pitching in front of Raisel Iglesias. Sure, it’s possible that if Iglesias struggles, he could take over the job, but it makes no sense to draft a primary set up man in the first 10 to 15 rounds, unless you are in a league which greatly rewards holds.

    People will draft him highly because of his high save totals from last year, but he’s only getting more than a handful if Iglesias needs to be replaced for some reason; I’d rather take the actual closer at 86.

    Emilio Pagan – ADP – 138.06/P53

    In the same range as Suarez, I’m out on Pagan for an entirely different reason, although they both share the same potential red flags with high mileage and advanced age.

    A career high in appearances at age 34 provideS some concern, but I’m more worried about how heavily the Reds used him in September, and the carryover effect that that could have in 2026.

    He’s coming off of a career year saves wise as it is, and I’m not sure the Reds will be particularly good anyways, but the profile of a moderate velocity, high riding fastball concerns me in that ballpark with even incremental decline, especially with his flyball tendencies.

    For a reliever in the top 15 rounds, there is far too much bust potential here, and I don’t even think of the reward is a potential top 10 reliever, so this is an easy miss for me.

    Anthony Kates

    Robert Suarez – ADP – 138.84/P54

    Not a fan of drafting a setup man/handcuff this early in the draft, especially when there are named closers and closer-by-committee relievers still available.

    The only way he is a difference make in standard leagues is if Raisel Iglesias gets hurt or struggles for an extended period, which is a possibility I guess (from the beginning of the 2025 season through June 5 , he did have a 6.75 ERA, but his xFIP was 3.98 and he was dealing with worse than league average strand rates, BABIP and allowed seven home runs over 24 innings; from June 6 through the end of the year, he allowed just one home run over 43.1 innings and had a 1.25 ERA), but the Braves have a track record of sticking with Iglesias even when he struggles.

    Had he signed somewhere like Miami, Arizona or Baltimore, he would be a locked in top-10 reliever, but the odds are that he finishes the 2026 season outside the top 30.

    Mason Miller/Edwin Diaz/Andres Munoz/Cade Smith/Jhoan Duran –  ADP – 37.81-47.65/P10-16


    Want to get access to the rest of this article? You’ll need to have an MLB FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
    Premium Access Required
    Click here to join us on Discord! And Follow us on Twitter by clicking here
    Come join us at SportsEthos by filling out an application by clicking here

    January 27, 2026, 3:39 pm