Welcome to the sunniest division in baseball, where the temperatures are warm and the skies are streaked in Dodger Blue!

The NL West may also be the division with the most concentrated star power in the entire league – even when factoring the moribund Rockies – so this is a fun set of teams to dive into for 2025, especially after what took place in the 2024 season (and post-season).

It comes as no surprise that the Dodgers were the favorites for division and World Series titles entering the year, of which they claimed both, but the expectations for the rest of the pack was a bit more muddled.

The predictions for the Diamondbacks were slightly lower than those of the Dodgers but they were still elevated, with Arizona projected by FanGraphs to be amongst the six-most winning teams in all of MLB. Instead, they finished 10th with a record of 89-73 and fell to third place in their own division, mostly due to getting snakebit by their pitching rotation because of injury (Merrill Kelly) or poor performance (Jordan Montgomery).

The Padres, meanwhile, were projected to finish behind the Giants in the division standings but ended up soaring to a playoff spot once more in 2024, finishing 14 games above .500 with 93 wins and 69 losses – even managing to win their Wild Card matchup against the Atlanta Braves, before falling to the Dodgers in a tough-fought six-game series. Despite some big swings on the trade market during the preseason, it was a homegrown talent – NL Rookie of the Year winner Jackson Merrill – that led the way for the Friars.

The aforementioned Giants found themselves resting their playoff hopes on the enigma known as Blake Snell, who showcased perhaps the most stark showing in his career of his ability to go from ice cold to red hot by pitching just 35.2 innings of 6.31 ERA ball during the first half of the year, before ripping off a stretch of 68.1 innings with a 1.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and a 29.2% K-BB% rate that rivals some of the hot streaks from his outstanding Cy Young winning seasons. It was too little, too late though as San Francisco found themselves under-performing their projection, finishing the year under .500 and above only the Rockies in the division.

Colorado also ended up under-performing, which is saying something considering their efforts in futility were outpaced by only the now-infamous 121-loss Chicago White Sox. Projected for a record of 65-97, the Rockies joined the White Sox and Marlins as one of three 100-loss teams in the Majors by finishing at 61-101. Despite the total lack of investment from ownership, there were a few glimmers of hope though, with a pair of breakouts from unexpected players.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Key Off-season Additions:

Maybe we should just start with the free agents they didn’t sign this off-season – it would probably be shorter than most team’s list of additions.

Jokes aside, the theme of the Dodgers’ (and perhaps the entirety of MLB’s) off-season was “The Rich Get Richer” – though unlike in the real-world, “Trickle Down” economics does actually lead to a better experience for your average person, especially if you get to cheer for what is essentially an All-Star lineup from top to bottom.

That’s not really an exaggeration either. The players that carried forward from the 2024 team into 2025 have a combined 29 All-Star Game nods between them, led by Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts with eight selections each. On a 25-man roster, that’s more than one All-Star selection per player.

It would probably be intimidating for younger player to walk into such an established locker room but the newest signings come with substantial pedigree and hardware of their own.

Let’s start in chronological order. First was the ever-versatile Tommy Edman signing a five-year deal after coming over in a deal at the trade deadline. No major hardware to speak of there but we’re just getting started.

The following day came two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell’s five-year deal, at which point the chorus from the fans of other teams were already starting to cry foul as their own teams’ management clutched tightly to their checkbook. Those two rapid-fire contracts signaled the beginning of a quiet period but it turned out that the Dodgers were just getting warmed up.

Once the calendar flipped over to 2025, the Dodgers hit the ground running yet again, making two splashy deals in one day by agreeing to separate three-year pacts with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and international free agent infielder Hyeseong Kim.

That’s a busy off-season for a whole division, let alone just one team! However, allow me to do my best Billy Mays impression…

But wait, there’s more!

Not only did the Dodgers land the perhaps the best traditional free agent pitcher, they also were able to come to an agreement with international superstar pitcher Roki Sasaki of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league. They did so without having to flex their financial might either, as MLB’s international player rules limited Sasaki to signing a minor-league deal worth far less than a standard MLB deal – a significant underpay for a potential Cy Young contender.

That said, the Dodgers must have felt their substantial cash reserves burning a hole in their pocket. If Sasaki was the dessert course of the Dodgers’ off-season, then the most recent signings of Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates to bolster the bullpen were simply the cherries on top. It’s also not crazy to think that LA could swing by for some “leftovers” as the tail-end of free agency starts to drag on and players get more willing to take short-term offers.

What an off-season – and we’re not done yet!

Key Off-season Losses:

There were only two truly noteworthy losses from the Dodgers’ roster that kicked off the 2024 season. One was that of former top-prospect Gavin Lux, as they flipped him to Cincinnati for a competitive-balance pick and a prospect. Calling it a “noteworthy” loss might be a stretch, as Lux had begun entering the dreaded “post-post-hype” era that often signals the end of the fantasy community’s faith in a prospect’s ability to break out and live up to their pedigree.

Though he reached as high as #2 overall on FanGraphs’ rankings back in 2020 with a Future Value grade of 70 (on the 20-80 scale), Lux carries just a 99 wRC+ over his career and has posted a .699 OPS with 28 home runs and 19 steals across 412 career games. And while he did heat up considerably in the back-half of 2024, his .899 OPS was significantly buoyed by a BABIP of .390 in his 61 games. He profiles as a more interesting hitter now within the favorable dimensions of Great American Ballpark but he would have been nothing more than a bench option in Los Angeles, making this a win-win trade for both parties.

The other was homegrown talent Walker Buehler, who struggled mightily (5.38 ERA / 1.55 WHIP) coming back from going under the knife for the second Tommy John surgery of his career but accepted a one-year, $21-million dollar deal to join the Boston Red Sox in the off-season.

More notably than Buehler or Lux however, was the loss of Jack Flaherty who pitched to a 3.58 ERA (4.16 FIP) with 61 strikeouts in 55.1 innings after being traded to LA from Detroit. Though more than a capable starter, the hole left in the rotation by Flaherty’s departure has been more than capably filled – as you may have heard.

Pitching Preview:

It’s not at all a stretch to say that any one of the Dodgers’ top-five starting pitchers could conceivably win the NL Cy Young this season.

If you go simply based off of the Steamer projections, Tyler Glasnow (3.7 fWAR) is ranked 7th among starters, whereas Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki with 3.4 fWAR each project as the 16th- and 17th-best, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.1) projects as the 25th-best. Oh yeah, we’re also missing the reigning MVP and his 2.5 fWAR, which places him a “measly” 56th.

This is undoubtedly the best rotation in baseball when it comes to both talent and depth but the depth is an important aspect to consider when it comes to how to value these players for fantasy. While their top-end ability is unrivaled, Dodgers pitchers do have a tendency of seemingly being run at full throttle – until they break. Just look at the Innings Pitched leaders on last year’s squad;

	2024 IP
Gavin Stone	140.1
Tyler Glasnow	134.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	90.0
James Paxton	89.1
Walker Buehler	75.1

If you looked at just those numbers and I told you that team ended up easily winning that year’s World Series, you probably wouldn’t believe me – but hey, that’s the Dodgers. They’re among the most well-equipped when it comes to weathering injuries.

Now let’s look at newly re-made rotation’s projections for 2025.

	2025 IP (FanGraphs Projection)
Blake Snell	170.0
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	159.0
Tyler Glasnow	144.0
Roki Sasaki	139.0
Tony Gonsolin	126.0
Shohei Ohtani	121.0

The most notable aspect here is that Shohei Ohtani is set to re-join the pitching staff after undergoing Tommy John surgery, setting the Dodgers up for a six-man rotation that could prove to be somewhat of a double-edged sword for fantasy managers. I would expect that with the added depth, manager Dave Roberts is likely to focus on getting high-quality outings from his starters rather than aiming for six innings each night. While that should help your rate stats like ERA, WHIP, and K/9, it’s also likely to take a chunk out of your counting stats – particularly Wins and/or Quality Starts. The unwillingness of managers to keep pitchers as deep into the game as they used to and the effects on fantasy baseball has been a frequent topic of conversation in the industry for many years now so I won’t rehash things here but I anticipate this year being one where the complaints reach a fever pitch, considering how early the Dodgers are expected to be selected in this spring’s fantasy drafts.

A similar situation may also unfold in the bullpen considering just how many mouths there are now to feed.

The signing of Tanner Scott signaled a changing of the guard when it came to the Dodgers’ closer role, likely supplanting last year’s trade deadline addition of Michael Kopech – especially now that Kopech is reportedly likely to miss at least a month of the regular season with forearm soreness, which is a worrying prognosis to receive this early in the year.

But there is substantial closing experience directly behind Scott, even with Kopech sidelined. Blake Treinen may have missed all of 2023 due to injury but he returned with a sub-2.00 ERA across 46.2 innings and has a 38-save season in his past; and Kirby Yates is coming off a 33-save season just this past year after spending the year as the Rangers’ closer, sporting a minuscule 1.17 ERA of his own.

To begin the year, the expectation is that Scott will be the “primary” closer but as a lefty, he will likely be called upon in more specific batter match-ups than a right-handed counterpart might, opening up a few extra save opportunities for Treinan and Yates – though their usage will mostly come in the seventh and eighth innings until Kopech returns.

If you use the combined scoring category of Saves+Holds (SVHLD), this bullpen is ripe for fantasy goodness but it could prove frustrating to navigate in traditional leagues.

Hitting Preview:

Let’s flip over to offensive side of the ball and begin by taking a look at the overall season projections for each starter at each position. We’ll do this for each team in the division, highlighting the most noteworthy (for better or worse) prognostications of the bunch. Maybe there will even be a bold prediction or two!

All projections below as per Steamer.

	Position	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS
Will Smith	C	488	61	19	63	2	.250	.776
Freddie Freeman	1B	666	94	24	92	11	.287	.854
Hyeseong Kim	2B	365	42	5	36	14	.279	.698
Mookie Betts	SS	685	109	29	89	15	.278	.862
Max Muncy	3B	531	68	24	69	3	.214	.753
Michael Conforto	OF	479	58	19	62	2	.244	.752
Tommy Edman	OF	537	64	13	60	21	.251	.703
Teoscar Hernandez	OF	643	83	30	96	8	.257	.779
Shohei Ohtani	DH	689	123	43	104	34	.280	.939

Things haven’t changed quite as drastically on this side of the ball, with Conforto and Kim being the only brand-new faces amongt them. Considering Kim is the youngest starting hitter and Conforto is the only veteran in the group who hasn’t already established himself fully, we’ll have more on them as potential breakout picks below.

For the others who get to bring their newly minted championship rings to Spring Training, it mostly feels like the status quo going forward – though I’d be cautious about their elevated chance of injury after scrapping through October. In particular, the ankle injury that Freddie Freeman fought in the World Series gives me pause and knocks a round or two off his draft day stock despite his status as hero for Dodgers fans.

Along those same lines, the shoulder injury that Shoehi Ohtani suffered sliding into second base in Game 2 of the World Series caused him to need arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder during the off-season, though the impact that will have on his hitting ability is still yet unknown. The initial reports suggest he’ll be ready for Spring Training but personally, I’d be wary of the potential for re-injury similar to what we saw happen to Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2021 – 2022. Even if it makes little difference to his hitting ability, I have no doubt that the Dodgers will want to put their most-prized player in the best position to stay healthy, meaning a stark decline in stolen base attempts.

He’s still a unicorn and likely to be the #1 overall pick in drafts barring a surprise injury or some sudden desire to instead become a global pop icon after having conquered Major League Baseball a la Jose Iglesias, but I am going to go out on a (somewhat flimsy) limb here and say he does not end the year as the #1 rated player.

Fantasy Breakout – Pitcher:

Picture the scene from Toy Story where Andy lets Woody fall to the ground as he decides he no longer wants the toy he loved so dear just last year – he wants to play with Buzz instead.

Well, if the fantasy community at large is Andy, that then makes Roki Sasaki the metaphorical Buzz Lightyear and our former flame, Yoshinobu Yamamoto the Cowboy Woody. Sure, Buzz Roki comes with a couple more bells and whistles but Woody Yoshi has been there before and knows his way through some of the hurdles of MLB action already. So I guess what I’m saying is…

You should maybe go play with your Woody!

It shouldn’t be that hard to believe Woody will bust out!

I like Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a sleeper this year. There we go, apologies to the editors.

Still just 26 years old, Yamamoto managed an impressive 2.8 fWAR in just 90.0 IP during his rookie debut and under-performed his 2.61 FIP by pitching to an ERA of exactly 3.00. Though he didn’t post elite Whiff rates (62nd percentile), he did manage an 85th percentile K% and 81st percentile BB% to exhibit above-average control, while still getting batters to Chase 31.7% of the time (82nd percentile).

As mentioned above, Yamamoto is projected for roughly 28 starts and 160 innings next year, whereas Sasaki is expected to receive somewhere closer to 24 starts, totaling 139 innings. The ADP figures on Sasaki aren’t quite stabilized enough to get a clear picture of where he’s set to be drafted but I would bet that he ends up selected ahead of Yamamoto in many drafts over the next few months and I think that’s a mistake considering the volume expected from each. Sasaki will likely be an ace for years to come – but I would draft him as such in 2026 instead of 2025. For 2025, go with Yoshi instead.

Fantasy Breakout – Hitter: 

It seems that whenever a player joins the Dodgers organization these days, the talk is often about how LA is bound to get more out of them than their previous team did. That alone provides us fertile ground in the hunt for fantasy breakouts but if you combine that with an underrated Statcast darling moving away from a haven of a pitcher’s park, things look even more promising.

Enter former Mets and Giants outfielder, Michael Conforto.

In New York, Conforto established himself by hitting 88 home runs across the 2017-2019 seasons and racking up a pair years with 4+ fWAR. But much like many Mets heroes of days past, the bottom fell out quickly on Conforto when he suffered a shoulder injury in his walk-year and ended up spending the entire 2022 season rehabbing as a free agent. He eventually found himself a contract with San Francisco but the long layoff, combined with the spacious outfield dimensions for lefty hitters, led to some of his lowest home run totals of his career, with just 15 in 2023 and 20 in 2024.

Yet, that modest jump in homers masked a substantial rebound in Conforto’s underlying power metrics.

	2023	2024
Barrel%	7.9%	11.8%
xwOBA	.330	.350
xSLG	.416	.479
Average EV	88.9 MPH	90.2 MPH

To me, this screams of a player finally finding his rhythm at the plate again after spending a year shaking off the rust. While the likelihood of finding yet another gear at age-31 is improbable, it isn’t impossible – especially considering Conforto has shown the skill before. And even if he does just tread water and stay at a similar level to his performance last year, the park factors are likely to bounce him back into fantasy relevance on their own. Just look at his 2024 xHR by park; in LA alone, he would have hit 21 long balls. In San Francisco alone, that number drops down to a meager 15.

Fantasy Breakout – Prospect:

Perhaps most known in prospect circles prior to 2024 for having been able to find success in the minor leagues despite being born with a clubfoot and needing multiple surgeries as a child to correct, Alex Freeland found himself towards the back end of a smattering of Top 100 lists on the strength of his system-best 32 doubles to go with 18 home runs and 31 stolen bases while being promoted multiple levels. He may be more of a high-floor/medium-ceiling player than some of the potential stars within the Dodgers organization but with scouts apparently quite high on Freeland’s character and mental makeup, he has a chance to come up sooner than expected should Hyesong Kim potentially struggle in his first taste of MLB action.

 

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Key Off-season Additions:

*tumbleweeds roll by a deserted bus stop*

*a bus pulls up to the stop, pauses, and then takes off in a cloud of dust*

*out of the cloud of dust comes a shadowy figure*

Luis Patino to the rescue, baby.

Or at least, that seems to be the hope. The Padres have done nothing other than acquire a reclamation pitcher prospect this off-season! Not quite the splash that A.J. Preller is usually known to make when it comes to reinforcements in San Diego.

Key Off-season Losses:

If you aren’t going to add any high end performers, you should probably try not losing any either – which is what the Padres have done (so far). As of this writing, 2024 left fielder Jurickson Profar remains unsigned after posting career-highs in home runs (24), wRC+ (139) and xwOBA (.365) to go with a .280/.380/.459 slash line in 158 games played (Editor’s update: He is a Brave now).

A reunion just feels natural here though, so I hesitate to even consider this as a loss. Profar has spent the majority of the past four seasons in Padres pinstripes and the team has a glaring hole with unproven rookie Tirso Ornelas and his projected wRC+ of 95 currently set to patrol left field. While the Padres have taken their foot off the gas a bit when comes to going all-in on every season and are in somewhat of a retooling phase, a certain level of competency should still be aimed for so I think a deal does eventually get done once he’s had the chance to fully explore his free agency options.

A reunion feels less likely with shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, however. After hitting a combined .242/.326/.380 with 47 homers and 78 steals between his four seasons in San Diego, Kim declined his mutual option in order to test free agency – where he remains unsigned as of this writing.

Pitching Preview:

While it happened during the 2024 season and the Padres didn’t technically “lose” him, the biggest loss to their 2025 roster came when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery after leaving his final playoff start with only a handful of pitches thrown. The timing of it couldn’t have been any worse, as it not only left the team shorthanded in their pursuit of beating the Dodgers, but it also left them without Musgrove for the entirety of this season.

Much like the hitting side of the roster the past few seasons, the Padres have seemingly implemented a classic “stars and scrubs” draft strategy when it comes to their rotation so an injury of that magnitude changes the team outlook significantly. With a bonafide ace (Dylan Cease), a former ace (Yu Darvish) and a potential new ace (Michael King), they’d have as good a playoff rotation as any team other than the rival Dodgers – but their fourth and fifth starters are now going to see a lot of playing time, especially if the health of the top three continues to be somewhat in question.

That doesn’t bode well as, unfortunately for the Padres, the current options for those slots are far from inspiring. Matt Waldron had a strong first half the season as he flummoxed hitters with his knuckleball but he spent most of the back-half of the season working away in the minors. Though knuckleballers are notoriously volatile, he does have a touch of upside baked in – something I can’t say for presumptive fifth starter Randy Vasquez. Vasquez’s 4.87 actual ERA masks a 5.94 xERA under the hood and his 5.69 K/9 points to strikeout downside more than any type of upside.

On the positive note, the 1-2-3 late-inning punch of Robert Suarez, Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada is one of the better trios in the majors. Based off expected roles, I would rank their year end save totals as Suarez>Adam>Estrada quite comfortably but if you’re asking me about pure arm talent, I would reverse that order. In other words, keep a close eye on Estrada as he projects as a traditional “closer in waiting” type who just needs a bit more MLB experience to reign in his wildness.

There’s also a potential upside player for the rotation lurking in the bullpen, who we will touch on below…

Hitting Preview:

All projections below as per Steamer.

	Position	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS
Luis Campusano	C	384	44	13	47	1	.261	.776
Luis Arraez	1B	692	89	10	62	692	.307	.767
Jake Cronenworth	2B	618	69	15	68	5	.242	.698
Xander Bogaerts	SS	628	72	17	71	14	.271	.752
Manny Machado	3B	648	83	30	97	7	.268	.801
Tirso Ornelas	OF	497	50	12	53	5	.243	.685
Jackson Merrill	OF	641	81	25	90	14	.279	.799
Fernando Tatis Jr.	OF	679	107	38	101	19	.280	.877
Eguy Rosario	DH	350	42	12	40	9	.232	.710

For me, the two most notable projections there come in the outfield – specifically those of Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis Jr. fell well short of returning value from where he was taken in drafts in 2024, tallying a combined total of just 32 HR+SB despite posting his best underlying metrics since his shoulder subluxation surgery – mostly due to being limited to only 438 PAs over 102 games – but for all you crypto enthusiasts out there, this is the part where you scream “BUY THE DIP”! 

While the stretch of performances (.938 OPS and a 154 wRC+) he put forth between 2019-2021 may end up representing the peak of his power, that’s an incredibly high bar and standard to aim for and Tatis Jr.’s “A-minus” output of .276/.340/.492 with a 135 wRC+ in 2024 is still to be lauded. Especially when you consider that slash line was backed up by a xBA/xwOBA/xSLG line of .298/.387/.538. In fact, those expected stats suggest he played to a true level OPS of somewhere around .925 – right back in line with his first three seasons. If you have the chance to land Tatis in the third or even fourth round of a dynasty or keeper format this spring, I think it will likely be the last time you get such an opportunity before the twilight of his career.

The other projection that catches my eye is the sophomore slump that’s seemingly expected for Jackson Merrill.

At first glance, the counting numbers seem within reason but a 30-point drop in OPS from his rookie year seems odd for a player with another year of experience under his belt – especially considering he was actually fairly unlucky with his batted balls, significantly under-performed his expected stats.

	2024 Actual	2024 Expected
AVG	.292	.303
wOBA	.352	.372
SLG	.500	.534

That doesn’t strike me as a player that pitchers are simply going to “figure out” because they’ve had a chance to examine any holes in his swing, so while there’s a good chance Merrill’s public value ends up outweighing his actual fantasy value in the end, I would feel safe taking him near his ADP as I believe the chances of the bottom falling out completely are quite slim.

Fantasy Breakout – Pitcher:

Last year’s pitching breakout came in the bullpen, with Jeremiah Estrada establishing himself as a late-inning weapon. This year’s breakout pick is also currently in the bullpen but rumors this off-season have suggested the Padres are considering testing him in the rotation come spring. Before I reveal who we’re referencing here, let’s take a look at their blind resume from 2024.

Not an ideal Barrel rate but he does exhibit an elite rate of limiting hard-contact, both with Average EV and Hard-Hit%, and has a 97.2 MPH heater for his average fastball.

So who are we looking at here? None other than Adrian Morejon.

If you were coming into draft season considering whether you would take the risk of drafting Clay Holmes after his conversion to starting, I think you’d be much better off taking a last-round dart throw on the Adrian Morejon experiment instead, making him my breakout selection.

Fantasy Breakout – Hitter:

Almost every Padres hitter has already established themselves, making it difficult to believe they’ll break out even further, but Luis Campusano is among those still on the upswing of their career at the age of 26. The aging curves on catchers tend to start later (and end quicker – like a dang avocado) so it’s not uncommon for a catcher to take a sudden leap in their hitting abilities once they’ve found their groove with all the other trappings of calling a game.

For a hitting-first catcher like Campusano, that’s even more likely to occur and the projection systems agree a jump is expected in 2025, with Steamer projecting a .261/.315/.423 batting line after Campusano hit just .227/.281/.361 last year. That bump would take him from outside of consideration in even two-catcher leagues, into a potential starter in 16-team leagues and maybe even 12-team leagues if a few balls bounce his way.

Fantasy Breakout – Prospect:

Depending on the prospect publication you frequent most, you could make the argument that Leodalis De Vries has already broken out as prospect but I think there’s enough variety in his rankings that he hasn’t truly solidified himself as a name among the elite minor leaguers. This is the year I think he does so, however. At just the age of 17, much like Ethan Salas, De Vries was tasked with an aggressive assignment to Single-A Lake Elsinore, where he performed admirably, putting up a 116 wRC+ while showcasing his five-category potential by swatting 11 home runs and stealing 13 bases in 15 attempts. He even showed a strong eye at the plate, walking 13.9% of the time compared to just a 23.3% strikeout rate. While Salas took a significant step back in his age-18 season, I feel that De Vries will buck the trend and hold his own once he eventually reaches Double-A – putting him on track for a possible MLB debut as early as 2027.

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