What was expected?

After a disastrous 2023 season that saw the Mets finish fourth in the NL East at 75-87, Steve Cohen hired David Stearns as the team’s new president of baseball operations, replacing the departed Billy Eppler. Stearns promptly fired Buck Showalter, eventually hired Carlos Mendoza to manage the club and overhauled much of the player development department.

With a tremendous amount of dead money on the books and a stacked farm system, both as a result of the 2023 trade deadline, most expected a transition year from the Mets, with a view towards competing for the postseason in 2025. Adding Luis Severino, Jorge López, Sean Manaea, Jake Diekman and re-signing Adam Ottavino on short term deals reinforced that perception, with one year deals for Harrison Bader and J.D. Martinez also serving as potential deadline trade bait. The team did trade rehabbing prospect RHP Coleman Crow for Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor; the former was released in July, the latter still has team control. Lesser deals for Zack Short, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, Shintaro Fujinami and Jose Iglesias
capped an offseason characterized by moves on the fringes.

How did it go?

Simply put, OMG. After starting the season 0-5 and sitting 11 games under .500 on June 2nd, this Mets team looked dead in the water, with a 7.9% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs. Fans were disappointed with just how poorly the team had played to that point, and most accepted the reality of selling at the deadline, and reloading to compete with a legion of MLB ready prospects in 2025. Unfortunately, many of those prospects had already suffered significant injuries by that point, and with an injury to Francisco Álvarez and the struggles of Brett Baty, 2024 felt like a lost season.

Through some combination of Francisco Lindor’s players only meeting, Grimace throwing out the first pitch and the promotions/reinstatements of Francisco Álvarez, Mark Vientos, Edwin Díaz and Jose Iglesias, the Mets caught fire in June, reaching the all star break at 49-46. On July 26th the Mets held a (at that point) season high playoff percentage of 59.9%, activating their ace, Kodai Senga on the same day. Senga would pitch 5.1 brilliant innings before injuring his calf, and the team would fall into a down spiral from there.

After losing series’ to the Angels and Athletics, and a sweep in Seattle in which they managed one run in three games, a Luis Severino complete game and walk off home runs from Francisco Álvarez and Jesse Winker got them back on track. September would continue in the same dramatic fashion, with a 9th inning rally to break up Bowden Francis’ no hitter and win the game highlighting a rollercoaster September. With an unique scenario of postponements leading to a Monday doubleheader in Atlanta after the season had ended, with the Mets and Braves both needing to win once to make the playoffs, the two teams played the game of the year in the opener.

Spencer Schwellenbach threw 7+ brilliant innings, and an 11 pitch AB from Tyrone Taylor ended in a leadoff double in the eighth. A six-run inning, capped by a long home run from Brandon Nimmo, gave the Mets a 6-3 lead, only for Phil Maton and Edwin Díaz to cough it up, giving Atlanta a 7-6 lead going into the ninth. With Starling Marte on, Lindor slugged a two-run, go ahead home run in the ninth, bad back and all, and this time, Díaz would hold on.

That would be the start of a run of magical moments in the postseason, with a season-saving three-run home run in what could have been Pete Alonso’s last AB as a Met in Wild Card Game 3, followed by an NLDS Game 4 grand slam from Lindor to sink the Phillies. Ultimately, the Mets ran into a juggernaut in the Dodgers, where they went down fighting in six games to a superior opponent.

Fantasy Stud?

Despite much of his value not translating to fantasy baseball, Francisco Lindor is still the undisputed Mets fantasy MVP. Lindor followed a dismal April with a better May, and by June, he was his all-star self. In July, he started to play like an MVP, and posted a .942 OPS alongside his 29 steals and elite defense in the second half.

A back injury slowed his counting stat pace, but Lindor still posted his best slash line as a Met, narrowly missing out on a second consecutive 30/30 season. 33 HR was his best total since 2018, and he posted an impressive 91 RBI (mostly) from the leadoff spot, along with 107 runs.

His peripherals were even better than the results, with a .539 xSLG and a .287 xBA contributing to a 96th percentile xwOBA. His barrel rate jumped 3%, strikeouts were down, chase was down, just a spectacular year overall. He’ll likely finish second in NL MVP voting to Shohei Ohtani.

Fantasy Dud?

Pete Alonso underwhelmed and Kodai Senga made one regular season start, but Edwin Díaz has to be the call here given his high ADP.

As the second ranked reliever and an ADP of 56, fantasy owners would hope for some elite closer production; ideally 35+ saves, high strikeout totals, and blow up outings few and far between. Díaz would’ve needed a seamless return from his 2023 injury to merit drafting him this high, which certainly did not happen.

After starting the season well, albeit with reduced velocity, Díaz posted an 8.68 ERA in May, going on the injured list and missing most of June. When he returned, he was largely effective bar an August meltdown in Arizona, but save opportunities were a few and far between, just registering 20 on the year.

For what it’s worth, his peripherals were outstanding overall, with a 39% K rate, .169 xBA against and a 2.48 xERA all indicating improvement to come in 2025, but let this serve as a cautionary tale on drafting relievers high- don’t do it.

Fantasy Surprise?

Francisco Lindor was unquestionably the team MVP, but Mark Vientos provided the best bang for your buck. Vientos wasn’t drafted in most leagues, yet still provided more average points than Alex Bergman, Austin Riley and Alec Bohm.

Vientos ended the season with a .266/.322/.516 slash and a .838 OPS alongside a 92nd percentile barrel rate, leading the team in slugging percentage. The strikeouts and chase rate are still high, but much improved from 2023, and with a .998 OPS in the postseason, the power potential will definitely be there in 2025, entering his age 25 season.

Player Breakdowns

Hitters

Francisco Álvarez- C

Many held lofty expectations for Álvarez heading into 2024 after a historic rookie season for a catcher his age. A combination of injuries and a deep mid-summer slump prevented him from replicating his 25 HR performance the year prior, hitting just 11 this time around.

That slump translated into a .187/.257/.337 slash line in the second half with just a .262 wOBA and 70 wRC+, despite finishing strong in September with a .900 OPS and a 150 wRC+

This is Alvarez’s second season to see a massive slump mid season derail his fantasy season. He had a .272 wOBA and a 71 wRC+ in last season’s second half as well.

His peripherals also took a big hit, with a 2% increase in chase rate, with his barrel rate just over half of what it was in 2023. Injuries undoubtedly played a big factor, but an underwhelming offensive season for the 22 year old will temper expectations for him going into 2025. He shouldn’t be taken over Willson Contreras as he was in 2024, but I’d take him over Keibert Ruiz or Gabriel Moreno.

Pete Alonso-1B

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