What was expected?

It has been all down hill since the 2021 White Sox won the AL Central title. They went .500 in 2022 then lost 101 games in ’23.

The off season saw them make a handful of moves that were at least moderately significant. First was bringing Erick Fedde back to the majors after one season in Korea’s KBO. Paul DeJong was signed as well. Key prospects Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte were part of a four-player package received in exchange for Dylan Cease. Reliever Aaron Bummer was shipped off for reclamation project Michael Soroka and other depth pieces.

They went into 2024 with little to no expectations after an off season filled with moves around the fringes and a major sell off of one of their better pitchers before the season got underway.

How did it go?

They lost a lot of games.

121 of them (but who’s counting?).

If it were not for the 134 losses by the Cleveland Spiders in 1899, the White Sox would own the record for the most in a single season.

Pitching was a disaster as they led the league with a 10.3% walk rate. They had the second worst WHIP at 1.44, the third-worst ERA at 4.67 and the third worst SIERA at 4.35.

One major silver lining was the emergence of Garrett Crochet as one of the top arms in real and fantasy baseball (more on him later).

We also saw some of their future as pitchers Jonathan Cannon got significant innings as a key member of their rotation for a good chunk of the season and Drew Thorpe also got some MLB innings in before going down with an injury.

The offense was similarly bad, if not worse than the pitching. They were dead last in wRC+ (75), wOBA (.272), SLG (.340), ISO (.119) and batting average (.221). It is also worth noting that they were in last place by decent margins over the second-worst team in multiple of those categories.

Only one player had over 100 at bats in a White Sox uniform and ended with a wRC+ above 100. That player is Tommy Pham and he was traded away at the deadline.

Sheesh. 

This team was just bad.

Fantasy Stud?

The answer is clear: Garrett Crochet.

While he did make 32 starts, they severely limited his workload as he only threw 146.0 innings. He was converting as a reliever after spending last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and battling shoulder issues out of the ‘pen.

But he turned a world of doubters into believers with his extremely productive campaign.

He led the way in strikeout rate for pitchers who threw at least 140 innings at an insane 35.1%. He also led the way in SIERA at 2.53 and was third in FIP at 2.69. Combine that with a 1.07 WHIP (only ranked 13th) and a very low 5.5% walk rate, and we have a the makings of a future Cy Young candidate.

Fantasy Dud?

Luis Robert Jr. was the 11th outfielder drafted in 2024 (per Fangraphs) with an overall ADP of 33.2.

He dealt with another right hip flexor strain this season as he missed from early April through early June. Overall he was limited to just 100 games and 393 at-bats. He did hit 14 homers and steal 23 bases even though the slashline was just .224/.278/.379. The wOBA was .285 and the wRC+ was just 84.

He was coming of a real coming out party as the skills are very much there for LuRob. He owned a .264/.315/.542 slash with a .347 wOBA, 128 wRC+, 38 homers, 90 runs and 80 RBI in 2023.

There is no doubt he possesses extremely tantalizing talent. He has all the tools to be a true 5-category asset in fantasy baseball and truly become one of the games’ biggest stars.

The question is, can he put it all together?

Fantasy Surprise?

I could cheat and be lazy and say LuRob or Crochet here.

I’d be right and you couldn’t do or say anything about it.

But I’ll go out on a limb and give you Andrew Benintendi.

OK, OK, I know, he ended the year with awful numbers. .229 average, .298 wOBA, 93 wRC+.

But he did hit 20 homers, and his second half of the season was more than fantasy relevant. It went on a massive run that really should have given a ton of deep league managers a major boost off the wire.

He hit 13 of his 20 homers in the second half as he slashed .263/.328/.502 with a .355 wOBA and a 133 wRC+.

While he did not steal bases, he flashed some vintage Benintendi. He is in the midst of a contract that will pay him $15-$17 million dollars per year until 2027 so the White Sox are hoping and praying that this is a sign of things to come.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Luis Robert Jr. – OF

The surface numbers were broken down earlier as LuRob was our ‘Fantasy Dud’ for the ChiSox in 2024. It was an incredibly down year for the talented outfielder.

Now the question going forward is, what are the odds that he makes a turn around?

Just his known talent alone makes the odds a bit favorable as it would not come as a shock if he turned in a 30/30 season next year and he lives up to his potential.

But his poor quality of at bat numbers may continue to haunt him as poor swing decisions have always been a part of who he is. His 17.5% SwStr% this year is not out of the norm for him, even going back to his days as a minor leaguer.

This year the chase rate was in the 10th percentile, the whiff rate was in the 2nd percentile along with the strikeout rate. The walk rate was less than terrible but still not good in the 28th percentile.

He showed a ton of promise on that front in 2021 and 2022 with strikeout rates of 20.6% and 19.2%. But last year it went up to 28.9% and it was one of the worst in the league at 33.2% in ’24.

We have seen his z-swing% go from 83.6% in ’22 to 78.1% last year to 72.7% this year. Z-contact went from 82.7% in ’22, down to 76.6% this year.

It does seem like he may have started to work on his swing decisions and it got into his head and he may have gotten too selective?

We saw his swing% drop from 61.5% in ’22, down to 58.3% in ’23 to 53.1% in ’24. The first pitch swing% also went down from 49.0% in ’22 to 43.0% this year (44.0% in ’23). The overall whiff rate went from 27.1% in ’22, to 33.5% in ’23 to 36.1% this year.

So he is swinging less (especially at the first pitch) and that had the opposite effect I’m sure he was thinking. He swung less at pitches in the zone, made less contact on pitches in the zone.

Overall, his whiff rates went up after he decided to swing less.

However, one positive thing has come from this. While the chase rate was still an abysmal 35.9%, it is way down from the 43.2% it was at in ’22.

Maybe LuRob needs to go back to being the hyper-aggressive swinger he was before this season saw his overall swing rates drop close to league average numbers. He may benefit from a more free approach to the plate.

It’ll be real interesting to see if he continues to try be more selective and swing less. Or if he goes back to swinging at anything that looks like it might be a strike.

One thing is certain, when he makes contact, it is going to be solid contact. His 9.9% barrel rate is lower than his career 12.0% but we did see his avgEV at 90.1 mph and the hard-hit rate at 40.7%. If he can start just make more contact, he will be productive.

I do wonder how far he will fall down draft boards in draft season next year as he does have first-round upside. But he is a very risky pick with “boom-or-bust” written all over his fantasy profile.

Andrew Benintendi – OF

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