Last Updated on March 19, 2026 4:42 pm by Paul Williamson | Published: March 19, 2026

Opening Day is right around the corner and that means just one thing.

BOLD PREDICTION TIME BABY!

Narrator: it means more than that.

SHUT UP INNER DIALOGUE!

OK, let’s do this thang.

Tatsuya Imai will win the AL Rookie of the Year

Narrator – Paul is an Astros fan.

PAuL iS An asTRoS FaN <insert sarcastic spongebob meme>

But seriously. Imai has a legit shot at this.

He has solid swing-and-miss stuff with a 40%+ whiff% in Japan in 2025 on multiple secondary offerings per this report from David Adler on MLB.com. 

That has translated to two straight career highs being set by Imai in K% in 2024 (26.3) and in 2025 (27.8%).

Before that he was around 24% so the improvement isn’t some kind of random spike.

The K% in Japan is also lower than in MLB as the league has more of an emphasis on contact overall than in MLB so that makes this a bit more intriguing.

But yes, the hitters in MLB are tougher and better. But even a regression to the 22-24% range would be just fine.

One thing he has consistently done that I do believe will transfer over is his ability to miss barrels and induce ground balls.

Outside of Altuve, the Astros have plus defenders (per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value) around the infield. In the outfield is Jake Meyers in center and he is a fantastic defender and Cam Smith was a neutral defender but he certainly has the athleticism to turn into a solid outfielder.

Add on the fact that he is going to be 28 years-old with experience competing in what is probably the second-toughest professional baseball league and he has a leg up over youngsters like Kevin McGonigle.

Bryan Reynolds will receive NL MVP votes

This prediction is based on two things.

First, the Pirates are going to be way better than what some people might be giving them credit.

The over/under set by FanDuel is 78.5 wins.

That’s low and I’m taking the over.

The defense will be… um… not great? And that downfall will prevent them from actually making the playoffs.

However….

I’ll sneak a bonus bold prediction here; they are going to be in the hunt for a playoff spot and will finish over .500.

The rotation of Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft and Mitch Keller is going to be supported by a solid lineup that now includes Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn (who will get 90 RBI) the ever underrated Jake Mangum and the Password, Jhostynxon Garcia (who will be wrongly placed in the minors to begin 2025 but will be a major wire grab in fantasy when he is brought up). Then, when Konnor Griffin is ready in June (no, he won’t make the Opening Day roster) he will push this team over the hump.

MVP votes are easier to obtain on a winning team, getting some attention.

The second part of my reasoning is just basic math.

Motivation + Skill = Success.

Narrator – That’s not actually ma…

I KNOW NARRATOR!

Reynolds will be the leader. He has played and suffered with that fan base for his whole career. He has to be absolutely chomping at the bit to get this team to its first postseason in over a decade.

It was a tale of two halves last year for Reynolds and the second half results are much more like him.

He slashed .276/.364/.453 with a .357 wOBA and 128 wRC+.

Prior to last year, he had a .350+ wOBA in three of his previous four seasons and 110+ wRC+ in all but one MLB campaign (2020).

He had 24+ HR in four straight, 84+ RBI in three of four and double digit steals in two straight seasons.

Last year he matched a career-low with 16 homers and had his second worst slash line, wOBA and wRC+ of his career.

However, his quality of contact numbers were actually better than his career marks.

He had a 91.2 MPH avgEV (90.1 MPH career avgEV), 10.1% barrel% (9.4% career), 46.0% hard-hit% (43.7% career).

He also set a new career high maxEV at 113.5 MPH.

This lines up with his xStats that exceeded his surface stats.

I think he gets to 25 homers, 85+ runs, 90+ RBI, 10+ steals and a .280+ batting average.

Reynaldo Lopez will finish as a top-25 SP

As the 111th pitcher taken in Online Championship drafts on the NFBC, this is definitely a bold thought.

But Lopez was incredible in his return as a starter in 2024. Yeah, yeah yeah a 1.99 ERA isn’t going to happen again.

Narrator – Duh.

You’re a douche. 

Narrator – Well, I’m you ,so…..

…………..

Narrator – Checkmate. 

Even a regression to things like his SIERA of 3.58 or xFIP of 3.44, that is still a more than good enough ERA to be a top-25 arm.

He induced league average contact with a 42.2% hard-hit% against him and an 8.8% barrel%.

That isn’t super awesome but when you consider the swing-and-miss, it will more than play.

He earned a 12.2% SwStr%. He forced a good amount chase as well with a 30.5% chase% induced.

Lopez had three secondary offerings that forced whiff rate of 34%+, including a 44.5% whiff rate on his 29.4% usage slider that he threw to both lefties and righties.

The curve was highly effective vs. lefties with a 36.4% whiff% and a .172 wOBA allowed.

He didn’t allow overly hard contact and he didn’t allow a ton of contact in general.

Also, the Braves are just really good at getting the most out of their arms. Their pitching lab is amongst the best in the majors.

Michael Harris II will finish as a top-10 outfielder in 2026

This dude is primed to breakout for a legit fantasy campaign.

There is a reason why I have him 65th overall in the Williamson 300 as compared to his ADP of 97 in NFBC OC drafts from March 1.

I absolutely buy his 2nd half production from last year that saw him bat .299 with an .845 OPS, .231 ISO and 130 wRC+.

Why?

First, he has a long history of 10%+ barrel rates that returned in that second half and ditto for his hard-hit and avgEVs.

Yes, the chase rate is really high, but so is his overall swing rate as he is just an aggressive hitter.

When you have a dude that swings at a 50%+ rate, it is vastly important that find contact in the zone and that is exactly what we saw from his for the entirety of 2025.

His Z-con% (contact in the zone) was 90%+ in both halves last year.

When you have a hitter that usually makes hard contact, making a ton of contact in the zone, that will usually mean they will find success.

And that is what we saw in the second half.

This was a full year of elite contact in the zone so I can feel extra confident in that.

The Braves also brought in the baserunning coach that is credited with giving Juan Soto the tools needed to steal bases, Antoan Richardson.

And Harris is actually fast. If Soto can get to 38 with his ‘speed’ then I am drooling at how many steals Harris could get given this new direction.

Manager Walt Weiss has also stated his desire for his team to be more aggressive and not rely so much on the long ball.

That is a perfect storm for Harris’ steal production.

Trevor Megill holds on to closer role all year, will finish as a top-5 closer

I am not sure why this is a bold prediction.

But everyone is on the Abner Uribe train but he is one of the most overdrafted players in 2026. His ADP in OC drafts of the NFBC is 137.94, less than a round after Megill at 126.88.

Look, I get Megill has injury issues. But the dude was the closer last year until he got hurt and did a phenomenal job.

He notched 30 saves with a 2.49 ERA (2.50 FIP), 31.3% K% and 1.13 WHIP.

Megill has had a 13.8%+ SwStr% over the last three seasons, topping out at 14.2% last year with a 70.9% contact rate (outperforming Uribe in that, BTW).

Uribe closed games at the end of last year and was also great. Megill did not return quick enough to reclaim the role as he only returned from the IL on the final day of the season.

I know it is spring training but he has been incredible while Uribe has been at the WBC. Megill is healthy entering 2026. He got a career high 50 appearances last year.

Megill has the track record with 51 saves in the last two seasons.

He has been the trusted ninth inning dude in Milwaukee.

I don’t see why that won’t continue in 2026.

Aaron Nola returns to form, finishes as a top-25 arm in 2026

He was a top-30 dude in 2024 and, while he was atrocious in 2025 before going down with a pair of injuries to his ribs and ankle.

Notice the word shoulder and elbow are not there.

There is no doubt it affected him, but his injuries don’t point to any kind of long-term issue like bone spurs, forearm tightness or inflammation in his arm.

Despite the horrible surface numbers (1.35 WHIP, 6.01 ERA), there was a lot to like when you dig deeper.

First, the strikeout to walk numbers were as good as they ever have been. with a 24.0% K% and 6.9% BB%.

The hard-hit data he allowed was a touch higher than we are used to seeing as a positive regression in this department is easy to see.

He allowed a 9.1% barrel rate (7-8% in many years prior) and his 43.3% hard-hit rate comes after an entire career of allowing a sub-40% hard-hit rate. Continuing to have an elite chase rate (93rd percentile, 33.5%) will not just help with the walks but also see him return some soft contact on those offerings.

The 11.2% SwStr% is right around where it usually is (11.5% career mark).

A potential red flag is the four-seamer whiff% dropping off big time to 13%. But the velo was only 0.6 MPH down (92.5 to 91.9) as the horizontal break was just as elite as it ever has been, actually almost a full inch more than what we saw in 2024 (12.0″ to 12.8″).

SIDE NOTE – In the WBC semifinal vs. Venezuela, his fastball averaged 92.8 MPH, higher than what we saw in 2024!

That’ll do, Nola. 

The change up returned a 30.4% whiff rate last year as he started to throw it more and the knuckle curve was just as filthy as ever with its 39.1% whiff%.

And his extension was just as great as it usually is at 6.9′, the 89th percentile.

Nola was essentially the same pitcher he has always been.

And the velo didn’t drop so far off that it is a red flag, especially with us already seeing him nearing 93 in the WBC.

Nola is a great pick and has a great shot to blow way passed his ADP.