Nothing can tank a fantasy team like drafting a player that  does not live up to the expectations placed upon them prior to the regular season.

Pinpointing those players prior to your draft is critical in avoiding these disastrous landmines.

I will take you through my top bust at each position (based on their ADP).

The listed ADP is for 15-team NFBC drafts from the beginning of March

C – Adley Rutschman – ADP 60.67 (C3)

First, Adley has a real chance at seeing less plate appearances than he has had. Usually he is a catcher that you could rely on 640+ PA’s. But this year, his floor is probably 515 or so and that is very much in the cards.

With the arrival of Tyler O’Neill and emergence of Heston Kjerstad and even Coby Mayo, the O’s have plenty of potentially better options at DH than him.

He got 45 games at DH last year and only 103 at catcher. He never eclipsed 100 games at catcher in the minors and 2023’s 110 games were his career high. It is very possible he goes down to 20 or less games at DH in 2025 and it is unclear if the O’s plan on pushing his games played behind the plate to far above his usual amount.

Then there is some issues at the plate in 2024.

His walk rate was at 13%+ for his first two years in majors before dropping to 9.1% in 2024 as his O-swing% went up to 30.1%.

The young backstop’s ISO continued to drop from its 2022 mark of .191 to .158 in ’23 to ..140 in ’24.

His wOBA was by far a career worst at .309 and the xwOBA was not far above it at .315. The wRC+ was a very bleh 104.

The barrel rate dropped to 6.1% and his hard-hit continues to not do him any favors at 36.4%. The xSLG was .393 with a real SLG at .391.

The only thing I think is fine is he should still solidly hit around 20 homers with his ability to lift and pull the ball.

The average will be solid at around the projected .255-.260 range but Sal Perez is going 10 picks after him and he is going to hit more than 20 homers. He has done so in eight of his last nine seasons and with his ability to also play first base gives him a better PA floor. And his average is projecting to be the same as Adley’s.

Willson Contreras is going to play first this year and he should get more chances at the plate than Rutschman. It should help keep him healthy as he has hit over 20 homers in three straight campaigns with under 500 PAs prior to his injury shortened 2024’s 15. But playing first base should give him well over 500 PAs, meaning he could be a 25+ home run guy with an average only slightly below Adley’s in the .250 range.

Will Smith has hit 19+ homers in four straight years with an average close to Adley’s projected .250 (and similar 20 or so homers) and he is going outside pick 100.

Then you got Shea Langeliers massive power upside at pick 114.

My point? Don’t overpay for Adley and chase his potential. He has not consistently provided that level of value like Smith, Contreras and Perez have and each of them is going behind him.

NOTE: IN 12-team, one catcher leagues, your catcher should be one of your last picks. Two words: Ivan. Herrera.

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