What was expected?

Coming off six straight National League East division titles and a 2021 World Series championship, expectations were the Atlanta Braves would finish atop the NL East division again. Most “experts” expected a Braves-Dodgers battle in the NL Division Series for a right to make it to the World Series. The Vegas odds makers had the Dodgers and Braves 1-2 in odds to make it to the World Series.

The Braves won 104 games in 2023, led by Ronald Acuna Jr. and his incredible season which saw him hit 41 homers and steal 71 bases, one of the best fantasy baseball seasons of all time. While they lost in the 2023 NL Championship Series to the Phillies, they just needed to add a few pieces to improve their team.

The biggest move they made in the offseason was acquiring left-handed starting pitcher Chris Sale in a trade with the Red Sox. Sale would be penciled in as the number two starter behind Spencer Strider. They also signed Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year $30 million contract with the option of turning him into a starter. Charlie Morton’s option was picked up by the Braves to keep him a part of the Braves rotation. To help bolster the bullpen, giving them another lefty option out of the pen, the Braves swung a trade with the White Sox to acquire Aaron Bummer.

Eight of the nine starters on the hitting side were returning in 2024, so not a lot of additions to the offense were needed. The Braves did make a trade with the Mariners to get Jerred Kelenic, a left-handed hitting outfielder to replace the departed Eddie Rosario.

How did it go?

How it went in 2024 season can be summed up in three words: plethora of injuries.

The injury bug ran through the Braves like the bulls running through the streets of Pamplona. Strider left this second start of the season in early April, had elbow surgery and missed the rest of the season. Then on May 27 Acuna hit the injured list with a torn left ACL, his second torn ACL in four seasons.

Starting catcher Sean Murphy injured his oblique on Opening Day and never got on track; starting center fielder Michael Harris II hit the IL on June 15 and missed two months with a hamstring strain; starting second baseman Ozzie Albies hit the IL twice, missing 10 days with a broken toe and nearly two months with a broken left wrist and starting third baseman Austin Riley missed the last seven weeks of the regular season with a broken left hand.

Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and Orlando Arcia were the only players from the Opening Day lineup who had more than 450 at bats in 2024. The Braves’ offense finished 15^th in MLB in runs scored in 2024 with 704 runs, 243 less than they scored in 2023.

While the offense was devastated with injuries, the pitching staff held its own, leading the National League in ERA at 3.49, tied with the Mariners for the best in baseball. The season saw Sale win his first Cy Young Award, a journeyman reliever emerge as bona fide starting pitcher and an unsung rookie pitch lights out over 21 starts.

Reynaldo Lopez spent the last three seasons primarily as a relief pitcher but made 25 starts (and one relief appearance), pitching to a 1.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and finished 11^th in the Cy Young Award vote. Righthanded rookie Spencer Schwellenbach was called up to the big leagues on May 29^th and made 21 starts, going 8-7 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

On the strength of the pitching staff, the Braves limped to the finish line in the regular season, coming in second in the American League East, six games behind the Phillies. The postseason was short lived, they were swept by the Padres by scores of 4-0 and 5-4 in the National League Wild Card series.

Fantasy Stud?

How can you not give not name the NL Cy Young Award winner the fantasy stud? Chris Sale looked like the Sale of the mid 2010’s where he finished in the top six in the AL Cy Young Award voting each season from 2012-2018.

Sale came over to the Braves in a trade from the Red Sox after a 2023 season that saw him make 20 starts over 102.2 innings, finishing with a 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. With the move to Atlanta, Sale made 29 starts, going 18-3 with an MLB best 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a league-leading 225 strikeouts in just 177.2 innings. He finished ninth on the Fangraphs players rater after having an ADP of 107 in 2024 drafts.

Fantasy Dud?

It is hard to call a player a fantasy dud when they miss a third of the season or more due to injury. With that caveat, based on ADP and finish on the Fangraphs player rater, first baseman Matt Olson gets the nod. His ADP was 16.6 in 2024 drafts, the second first baseman selected, but he finished ranked 86^th, the seventh first baseman in baseball.

The ADP made sense coming off a 54 homer, 139 RBI season in 2024. In basically the same amount of at bats in 2024 as he had in 2023, he hit 29 homers and 98 RBIs and struck out three more times than he did in 2023. Not a bad season by most accounts, but Olson finished ranked behind Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso and Vlad Guerrero Jr., all drafted after Olson.

Fantasy Surprise?

The biggest surprise could have been either Reynaldo Lopez or Spencer Schwellenbach, but I must go with the virtually undrafted Schwellenbach. While he was probably picked in Dynasty Leagues, in redraft leagues he did not register an ADP, yet finished as the number 127 player on the Fangraphs player rater. Per MLB.com, Schwellenbach was not listed as one of their top 100 prospects entering the 2024 season.

For fantasy owners who picked him up off the waiver wire, he made them incredibly happy. He made 21 starts finishing with an 8-7 record, a 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 127 strikeouts in 123.2 innings. After a rough May and June, he was a boon for fantasy owners as he had a 2.08 ERA/0.77 WHIP in July, 3.07 ERA/1.09 WHIP in August and 2.45 ERA/0.98 WHIP in September.

Definitely not a rookie season anybody expected during 2024 draft season.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna followed up a monster 2023 with an even better 2024, garnering enough MVP votes to finish fourth in the voting. The stats that earned him the fourth-place finish: 162 games played, .302 average, 39 homers, 104 RBIs, 96 runs and he even stole a bag. The 39 round trippers were one shy of his career high of 40 set in 2023, although he had 76 more at bats in 2024 than in 2023.

There was some luck involved in that .302 average, his .359 BABIP was well above the league average .291 BABIP. Those same advanced metrics show the reason he did not set a career high in homers. While his hard-hit rate increased from 49% in 2023 to 53.3% in 2024, his barrel rate dropped from 16.6% to 15.4%. Less barrels but hitting the ball harder equates to more line drives and less fly balls, and line drives rarely clear the outfield fence.

Ozuna finished as the 15^th rated player on the Fangraphs player rater, yet his ADP was 160 in 2024 drafts. Coming off a 40-home season, there is only one reason his ADP was so low in 2024 drafts, he was utility only. Most fantasy owners do not like filling up their utility spot early in drafts and let those utility only guys fall in draft. I will gladly draft a 40-home run guy in the fourth or fifth round and fill my utility spot at that time.

Of course, in 2025 drafts that theory will be put to the test with Shohei Ohtani. As for Ozuna, his batting average should regress as the BABIP comes back to the mean, but the power should still be there. Hitting third in one of baseball’s deepest lineups, provided they are healthy, should put Ozuna in the 60-70 range in 2025 drafts.

Matt Olson

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As stated in the Fantasy Dud section near the top of this article, Olson’s .247/.333/.457 slash line with 29 homers, 98 RBIs and 78 runs were disappointing based on his 16.6 ADP. While most fantasy owners would take that season from just about any player, they expect more value from their second-round pick.

Olson played in 162 games for the third straight year and has played 156 games or more in five of the last six seasons, excluding the 2020 Covid season. None of the five-category stats matched the three-year average he had from 2021-2023, and his 170 strikeouts in 2024 matched his 2022 number, but in 16 less at bats.

So, what went “wrong” in 2024? Peeking at the underlying numbers, it looks like he might have been pressing to help the team out with all the injuries. He swung at more pitches out of the strike zone (29.3%) than at any time in his career, his walk rate dropped 4% and he did not hit the ball as hard as he did in 2023. His barrel rate dropped from 16.4% to 12.4% and his hard-hit rate fell from 55.1% to 47.4%.The combination of those stats scream regression from prior years.

What do fantasy owners do in 2025 will be interesting to see. A healthy lineup around him will lift those counting stats. He will turn 31 during the opening weekend of the 2025 season, and hitting in a really good, and hopefully healthy lineup, I think his ADP will be around 40.

Michael Harris II

Harris II was one of five Brave hitters drafted in the top 30 of 2024 drafts, his ADP was 28. And like the other five, his final rating on the Fangraphs player rater was below his ADP, finishing ranked 223rd. Like Riley, Albies and Acuna Jr., his season was partially derailed by injury, hitting the injured list with a hamstring strain on June 15 before returning August 14.

He finished the season with 440 at bats and a slash line of .264/.304/.418, 16 homers, 48 RBIs, 58 runs and 10 stolen bases. He struggled for much of the season, ending August with a .245 batting average before his red-hot September inflated his season long numbers. In August, he slashed .316/.344/.579 with eight home runs, 18 RBIS, 21 runs and two stolen bases.

I think 2025 drafts will still see Harris II drafted inside the top-50. An outfielder with 20-20 potential, hitting in a good lineup, still makes him a valuable piece in fantasy lineups.

Austin Riley

Expectations for the 2024 season were high for Riley, entering his age 27 season, and coming off a 2023 season that saw him hit .281, with 37 homers, 97 RBI’s and a career-high 117 runs scored. Fantasy owners bought into those expectations, establishing an ADP of 19 in those 2024 drafts. Suffering a fractured right hand on August 18 ended his season, part of the reason his final Fangraphs player rater ranking was 229.

Riley struggled the first two months of the season, finishing May with a .228/.295/.353 slash line, four homers and 22 RBIs. The next two months saw him hit .284 with 11 homers and 27 RBI’s, the Riley fantasy owners were expecting with their second-round pick. He added five more homers in August before the injury ended his season, finishing with a .256 average, 19 home runs, 56 RBIs and 63 runs scored.

Unlike Olson, it is not easy to pinpoint why the struggles occurred. His hard-hit and barrel rates were higher than 2023, his BABIP was above league average and his strikeout rate rose just 1.1%. The drop in homers could be related to his drop in HR/FB rate, he had a career low 14.3% in 2024.

I still see Riley being one of the five Brave hitters going in the top-50 of 2025 drafts, six if Ozuna sneaks into the Top 50, and a top-five third baseman.

Ozzie Albies

If Albies’ 2025 season follows the pattern of the last six seasons, he will be relatively injury free and play in 150ish games in 2025. In the last 3 odd numbered years, Albies has played an average of 155 games. In the last three even numbered years, he has played in exactly half of the games, including just 29 of the 60 games in the Covid year of 2020. If Albies can play 150ish games in 2025, he is a top-25 player. In 2024 drafts his ADP was 23, but missing 61 games due to a broken toe and broken wrist tanked his ADP, finishing just inside the top 250 at 245.

Like a lot of the 2024 Brave hitters, Albies struggled when he was playing. He had 399 at bats and just 10 homers, while he hit 33 homers in 596 at bats in 2023. His other 2024 stats: he hit .251 with 52 runs, 53 RBIs and eight stolen bases.

Like Olson, Albies did not hit the ball as hard in 2024 as he did in 2023. His barrel rate dropped from 8.2% to 5.6% and his hard-hit rate fell from 38.9% to 32%. Looking at those two metrics, it explains why his HR/FB cratered to 6.8%, coming off the 2023 season where he had a career high 15.6% HR/FB rate.

Albies enters the 2025 season as a 28-year-old, and coming off another injury filled season, his ADP should drop. I think he falls to the 50-60 range and a top 3-4 second baseman.

Ronald Acuna, Jr.

For the second time in four years, Acuna Jr. had his season cut short due to an ACL tear. It was his right knee in 2021 and his left knee in 2024. The injury limited the number one pick in most 2024 drafts to 49 games where hit .250 with four homers, 27 RBIs, 37 runs and 16 stolen bases. This coming off one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 2023 which saw the 2023 National League MVP hit .337 with 41 home runs, 73 stolen bases, 106 RBIs and an unheard of 149 runs, the most in a season since Jeff Bagwell crossed the plated 152 times in 2000.

Recent reports are indicating Acuna Jr. will not be ready for the start of the 2025 campaign. It is unknown how much of the season he will miss, probably late April at the earliest. I think he goes in the top 10-20 as fantasy owners will take the discount knowing they will probably get four to five really good months and will piece together an outfield for the first few weeks of the season.

Best of the Rest

Jorge Soler came over to the Braves from the Giants at the trade deadline to provide outfield depth and power down the stretch. He hit nine homers and had 24 RBIs in August and September for the Braves. Combined with his stats as a Giant, he hit .241 with 21 home runs and 64 RBIs, good enough to finish 166^th on the Fangraphs player rater. He was traded to the Angels in the offseason and should be an everyday player in Anaheim, albeit in a much less talented lineup. With the 20+ home run power, he should be drafted as a fourth outfielder with an ADP around 250.

Travis d’Arnaud is another former Brave who is now a part of the Angels roster, signing a two-year deal in the off-season. He is coming off a 2024 season that saw him hit .238 with 15 home runs and 48 RBI’s. He will be the primary backup to Logan O’Hoppe, which makes him only viable in deep two catcher leagues.

Sean Murphy hurt his oblique and never really got going in 2024, appearing in 72 games hitting .193 with 10 homers and 25 RBIs, a far cry from his 108 games with 21 homers and 68 RBIs in 2023. He should still be the primary catcher for the Braves in 2024, making him worthy of a pick as a second catcher in two-catcher leagues.

Pitchers

Chris Sale

The 2024 season was a Renaissance for Sale, showing the talent fantasy managers saw in the mid-to-late 2010’s. He made the most starts (29), threw the most innings (177.2) and set a career high in wins with 18 in 2024. Fantasy owners had to be thrilled with their return on investment in 2024 as he finished ninth on the Fangraphs player rater after finishing draft season with an ADP of 107.

Sale missed the entire 2020 season following Tommy John surgery in March of that year. Over the next two years injuries limited him to 11 starts, covering 48.1 innings. The road to recovery continued in 2023 when he made 20 starts, striking out 125 over 102.2 innings, with a 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

In his first season in Atlanta, Sale made 29 starts, going 18-3 with an MLB best 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and a league-leading 225 strikeouts in just 177.2 innings, earning his first Cy Young Award.

He will turn 36 in March, but he does have three seasons of little use, so he has not piled up the innings as a normal 36-year-old starting pitcher. I think he should be a top 5 pitcher and top 25 pick. Peeking at early drafts on NFBC, he is going as the eighth starting pitcher with an ADP of 37.

Reynaldo Lopez

It would be hard to argue that Lopez was not the top reclamation project in all of MLB in 2024. He made 149 appearances over the last three seasons and made just 10 starts. In 2023 he worked exclusively out of the bullpen, finishing the season with a 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 66 innings.

The Braves signed a three-year $30 million contract in November 2023 with the plan to give him a chance to convert to a starting pitcher. He made three starts in spring training, showing enough to earn a spot in the rotation, and he flourished.

Making 25 starts and one relief appearance, he threw 135.2 innings with a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and a 148:42 K:BB ratio. His ERA was second to Paul Skenes’ 1.96 ERA for pitchers who threw more than 100 innings in 2024.

His xERA of 3.88 is almost twice the true outcome, which could give some fantasy owners pause when it comes to 2025 drafts. In my mind, he is a hard one to project ADP for in 2025 drafts. His 19.5% K-BB% was excellent, but the xERA makes me think he will go in the 150-175 range as an SP3/4.

Spencer Schwellenbach

While Schwellenbach came out of nowhere to finish 127^th on the Fangraphs player rater, his minor league numbers were excellent, giving an indication there was a chance for success in the major leagues. He was a shortstop turned closer at Nebraska and was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2021. Tommy John surgery kept him on the shelf in 2022, then he blossomed in 2023 and 2024. In those two seasons he made 24 starts covering 110 innings, went 9-3 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 106:26 K:BB ratio.

He did not receive a warm welcome to the majors, through his first six starts he pitched 31.2 innings and gave up 20 earned runs (5.68 ERA) with 32 strikeouts. After giving up four earned runs and three homers to the Cardinals on July 21, he did not give up more than three earned runs in the final 12 starts of the season.

Per the Stuff+ metrics, he possesses three plus pitches in his fastball, curveball and sinker, all contributing this his above average swinging strike out 13.5% (league average 11.1%).

Schwellenbach should have no problem earning a spot in the Braves rotation in 2025. I think he should go around the same ADP as Lopez, but a lot of fantasy owners like the shiny new toy and I am sure his he will be drafted 2-3 rounds before Lopez, putting him in the 100-120 range.

Max Fried

Fried put up good numbers as usual in 2024, but not the numbers fantasy owners were used to. He made 29 starts in 2024 but his 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP were the highest for Fried since 2019, the year it appeared the baseballs were made by Callaway. His 2.94 BB/9 and 15.3% K-BB% rate were the worst for Fried since 2020.

He did not change his repertoire drastically, he threw the sinker a bit more, and cut back on the curve usage, which is odd since it is his best pitch per Stuff+. The only underlying stats that show the possible cause for the rise in ERA and WHIP would be the barrel rate and hard-hit rate were up from 2023 and his chase rate and swinging strike rate decreased just a bit.

Fried enters the offseason as a free agent. Chances are he goes to a contender so it should not decrease his value in 2025. He finished 99^th on the Fangraphs player rater, 40 spots ahead of his 59 ADP. I cannot imagine his ADP in 2025 drafts will be much different than his 2024 ADP..

Spencer Strider

After leaving his second start of the 2024 with right elbow pain, Strider opted for the internal brace procedure as opposed to Tommy John surgery. Per @MLBAnalysis, only 22 MLB players have had the internal brace procedure, with Strider being the biggest name on the list by far. The last starting pitcher to have the procedure done before the 2024 season began was Drew Rasmussen. He had the surgery on 7/24/23 and returned just a year later on 8/7/24, throwing 28.2 innings.

Like Acuna, recent reports indicate Strider will not be ready for Opening Day. The Braves have the depth to baby him along in spring training and the first part of the season and save those innings from the playoff run the second half of the season.

Currently through 67 drafts on NFBC, his ADP is 125. As more news comes out about his health and spring training reports, I expect his ADP to fluctuate dramatically between now and Opening Day.

Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias is about as steady a closer as there is in the game. Here are his save totals for the last five seasons excluding 2020: 34 in 2019, 34 in 2021, 17 in 2022, 33 in 2023 and 34 in 2024. Since 2020 he has not had an ERA above 2.75 and only one season, 2023, did he have a WHIP above 1.00.

His 2024 stats were good enough to put him 69^th on the Fangraphs player rater, slightly lower than his 61 ADP, and the fourth-ranked closer. He pitched in 66 games, going 34-for-38 in save opportunities, finishing with a 1.95 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.

He does it by having four above average pitches per Stuff+ metrics including an elite slider.  A couple of red flags pop up when looking behind the curtain. His K-BB% has dropped each of the last four seasons down to 21.2% in 2024, the lowest he has recorded since 2018. His 2024 BABIP of .199 was the fifth lowest of pitchers who threw more than 60 innings.

If the BABIP returns to the norm, which it should, there is some regression on the horizon. But even a slight regression still makes Iglesias a top seven closer. There will be plenty of save opportunities pitching on good team, I think his ADP should be in the 60’s.

Joe Jiménez

Jiménez was the primary setup man for the Braves in 2024, recording 27 holds and picking up three saves. He registered a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 82 strikeouts in 68.2 innings.

A setup man on a team with an established closer is not real useful in standard fantasy leagues, but is an asset in leagues which count holds. His ADP was 669 in 2024, and I am sure that number will drop in 2025 drafts as those ratios are useful in the deepest leagues such as draft-and-hold leagues.

Best of the Rest:

Charlie Morton

Like the Duracell bunny, Morton just keeps going and going and going. He has made 30 or more starts in six straight years, minus the Covid year of 2020. He made 30 starts in 2024, finishing with an 8-10 record, 4.17 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and averaged more than a strikeout an inning, 167 strikeouts in 165.1 innings. He said he wants to play in 2025. Where he signs will determine his 2025 ADP

Dylan Lee

Lee was fantastic out of the bullpen in 2024, making 52 appearances, getting nine holds and ending with a 2.11 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 11.46 K/9 over 59.2 innings. The 30-year-old lefty had interesting righty-lefty splits, he had a higher strikeout rate against lefties, but left-handed hitters also had a higher batting average and slugging percentage than right-handed hitters. Only viable in deep, deep leagues or draft-and-holds.

Grant Holmes

Holmes is an interesting name entering 2025 drafts. He appeared in 26 games in 2024 including seven games as a starting pitcher. In those seven starts (one was a short stint as an opener), he went 33.2 innings with a 4.06 ERA and 40 strikeouts. With Morton and Fried free agents and Strider expected to miss the start of the season, Holmes could be stretched out in spring training and start the 2025 season in the Braves rotation. He is undraftable now except in deep NL-only leagues, but if he wins a spot in the rotation, he will become viable in deeper leagues and a streamer in leagues with 12 teams or less.

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