What was expected?

The 2024 season was a “World Series or bust” year for the Phillies that went bust at the hands of the upstart Mets in the NLDS, a far earlier playoff exit than anyone predicted.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022 and choked away an opportunity for a return trip in 2023 when they blew Game 6 and Game 7 to the Arizona Diamondbacks (both were in Philly!). The Phils scored just three runs in those two crucial games as most of their hitters went ice cold. Many of those same hitters vowed that things would end better in 2024. Most pundits anticipated that the Phils would make a deep run in the 2024 playoffs with a good chance to return to the World Series.

The Phillies did not make many significant acquisitions during the off season heading into 2024. Their biggest move was to re-sign starting pitcher Aaron Nola to a monstrous seven-year, $172 million contract. They made two minor pickups as spring training began by signing pitcher Spencer Turnbull and infielder Whit Merrifield to one-year contracts. They lost former closer Craig Kimbrel to free agency but many felt the team would use a closer committee among in-house candidates such as Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and Jeff Hoffman. Essentially, the team was very good in 2022 and 2023, so the front office decided to run it back with basically the same squad in 2024.

How did it go?

The Phillies started the year off in great fashion. In April, May and early June, they seemed nearly invincible with outstanding hitting and pitching. Everything was clicking and they quickly took a commanding lead in the NL East over the injury-riddled Atlanta Braves. The Phils were riding high when they went to London on June 8 and 9 for a brief two-game series against the NY Mets. By winning the first game, the Phils were 45-19 for an outstanding winning percentage of .703. Projected over a full season, that comes out to 114 wins. They built a nine-game lead over the Braves and 17.5 games over the Mets. Things basically couldn’t go any better.

And they didn’t.

The Phillies lost the second London game to the Mets. At that time, literally no one could have anticipated the season unraveling the rest of the way. Yet, that loss marked the start of four months of mediocrity as the Philles were just a .500 team during the rest of the season including their short four-game playoff appearance.

They clinched the NL East for the first time since 2011 but that didn’t seem like too huge of a deal because their goal wasn’t to be a division winner – it was to win the World Series. Despite the prolonged .500 stretch, the Phillies ended the regular season with 95 wins which was their most since 2011. They also finished with six-game leads over the Braves and Mets along with a +113 run differential that trailed only the Dodgers and Brewers in the NL. They were idle during the NL Wild Card Series as they watched the hot Mets dispense the Brewers. The Phils lost Game 1 of the NLDS to the visiting Mets, a bad sign because Game 1 losers have a high chance of losing a five-game series. They rebounded to win Game 2 but promptly lost Game 3 when the series moved to Citi Field. Down two games to one, their World Series hopes hung by a thread in Game 4 as they nursed a one-run lead. Unfortunately, that thread snapped when trade deadline acquisition Carlos Estévez gave up a grand slam to Francisco Lindor in the sixth inning and the Phils lost, 4-1.

Fantasy Stud?

Despite the premature end to the season, the Phillies had many strong performers in 2024. However, the clear standout this year was pitcher Zack Wheeler.

It would be hard to pick anyone other than the likely NL Cy Young runner-up as Philadelphia’s 2024 fantasy stud. In 32 starts, he went 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The 16 wins and outstanding ratios were the best of his 10-year career. Wheeler had 224 strikeouts in 200 innings with a 28.5 K% and low 6.6 BB%. Although his walk rate edged up slightly this year, Wheeler achieved an outstanding WHIP because batters just could not hit him. His Batting Average Against was a measly .191 which was by far the best of his career.

Fantasy Dud?

The Philles were very good this year but several players failed to meet expectations. This includes Aaron Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Jose Alvarado and, to a certain extent, even Bryce Harper. Bryson Stott, however, was the biggest fantasy dud for the 2024 Phillies.

After a solid rookie year in 2022, Stott made across-the-board improvements in 2023 which increased expectations for him entering 2024. However, Stott took a step back this year and most of his stats dropped back closer to those of his rookie season. After hitting .280/.329/.419 in 2023, Stott slipped to .245/.315/.356 this year. He hit four fewer homers (11) but salvaged some value by stealing 32 bases which was one more than he stole the previous year. Stott had dips in exit velocities, barrel rate and hard-hit rate yet his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were a tad higher than his actual stats. He hit just .233 against left-handed pitching and was occasionally benched when the Phillies faced lefty starters. Stott was often drafted around number 125 but finished the year outside the top-200.

Fantasy Surprise?

Ranger Suárez. Well, to be more accurate… First Half Ranger Suárez. Suárez got off to a blistering start by going 5-0 in April with a 0.75 ERA and 0.61 WHIP. He won his first four May starts to improve his record to 9-0 and didn’t suffer his first loss until May 26. He was chosen as an NL All-Star and was 10-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at the break. Suárez had been good at times since becoming a starter in 2021 but had never been this good.

Unfortunately, back spasms impacted Suárez in early July and caused him to miss the All-Star Game. He made one start early in the second half but was subsequently placed on the injured list for about one month. He started two games in late August to mixed results, then had a terrible September when he went 1-2 with hideous ratios (6.04 ERA and 1.93 WHIP) in five starts.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Bryson Stott – 2B

Many of Stott’s stats were mentioned above but here’s a little more detail about his season. He scored 65 runs and had 57 RBI, down from last year’s 78 and 62, respectively. His BB% rose to a career-high 9.3% and he maintained a good 16.3 K%. He ended the season with an 88 wRC+ and .296 wOBA. Meanwhile, Stott’s xwOBA was .309 this year and last year (he underperformed that number this year after overperforming it last year).

The question for 2025 is where to draft Stott. Will we see 2022 Stott (not so good), 2023 Stott (Top 100 player) or 2024 Stott (somewhere between)? With expected stats slightly higher than his actual 2024 stats, and with Stott entering his peak years (he turned 27 in early October), the thinking here is that Stott sees a slight rebound in 2025. Returning to the Top 100 might be a tall order but Stott could make slight improvements and return to around the Top 150-175. For 12-teamers, that means targeting Stott about five rounds later than this year (around Round 14 instead of Rounds 9 or 10).

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