November 14, 2022, 1:15 pm
Final score: Colts 25, Raiders 20 (Colts covered +4, O 41.5)
Just a few weeks ago, Jeff Saturday the ESPN analyst had tweeted that the “Raiders look terrible” after their shutout by the Saints in Week 8. Those words didn’t come back to bite him as Saturday, the rookie interim head coach of the Colts, won in his debut thanks to a run defense that bottled Josh Jacobs up for just 3.7 YPC and a huge starting quarterback decision that made all the difference too. Despite announcing at his hiring press conference that Sam Ehlinger would continue to start, an impressive Friday practice apparently swung the pendulum back in favor of the veteran Matt Ryan to take back the controls. Ryan went on to post just his second turnover-less game in eight starts this year and had an uncharacteristic 39-yard scramble that set up a touchdown.
Aside from failing to stop the bleeding with their third straight loss, the Raiders also failed to produce any fantasy relevant receivers outside of Davante Adams in wake of Hunter Renfrow hitting the IR. Mack Hollins (2-18-0, six targets, 2.8 total fantasy points) was the only receiver outside of Adams to record a catch. Josh McDaniels elected for an even 50/50 split of pass/run, which could be a trend moving forward after the loss of Renfrow and Darren Waller as they were the sixth pass-heaviest team in the league overall, passing it 63.6% of the time. It shouldn’t affect Adams much (more below on him), but might mean there’s no room for any other pass-catchers to be fantasy relevant in Las Vegas.
WR Davante Adams
Adams (9-126-1 receiving, 14 targets, 23.1 total fantasy points) continues to do his best Cooper Kupp impression by thriving with a heavy target share (36.8%) on a bad team. The eye-popping 14 targets now gives Adams double-digit looks in more than half (55.5%) of his games his season. The Raiders are unfortunately not looking like they’re getting any better, but Adams should still find himself on the right side of game scripts more often than not. The one-catch clunker in New Orleans two weeks ago seems to be a mere blip as Adams has averaged seven catches in the eight games outside of that one.
RB Jonathan Taylor
He’s back, and he’s looking like his old self again. Taylor (22-147–1 rushing, 2-16-0 receiving, two targets, 23.3 total fantasy points) carved up the Raiders run defense without issues, and a workhorse-like 24 touches was exactly the kind of workload that fantasy managers wanted to see to have confidence in that recovered ankle. The ankle looked just fine on a his huge 66-yard scoring scamper late in the third quarter. Saturday’s move back to Ryan may also help Taylor with defenses having to respect the pass again at least to an average extent now.
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
The seven catches from Pittman (7-53-0 receiving, nine targets, 8.8 total fantasy points) were plenty serviceable in PPR formats and now give him six-plus receptions in four of his last five games. However, his ceiling has been severely capped and not nearly as high as it was even with Carson Wentz throwing him the ball last year. That’s now four straight games of single-digit fantasy point production and failing to top 60 yards receiving. Pittman will be a floor-based low-end WR2 moving forward, but unless things take an unlikely huge leap offensively under Saturday, it’s more realistic to expect flex numbers from Pittman despite the healthy volume (32.1% target share in Week 10).
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Packers 31, Cowboys 28 in OT (Packers covered +3.5, O 44)