Oh yes, it’s time to start gearing up for the NFL yet again! I did about 150 of these last season and I saw some decent advance rates. I didn’t take down the big prize though and I’ll be looking to change that by dialing in sooner and trying to get ahead of ADP risers 2-3 months out. That being said, here we’ll be looking at the players I think can provide the best value at their current ADP. What does that mean? It means they’ll outperform the other players going ahead of them, by several rounds in some instances.

Yep, we’re gonna put some eggs in our baskets early here, but of course, much will change as OTAs wrap up and training camps begin. At the moment, we’re using information from OTAs, offseason moves, and doing our best to project teams that will play well and some that won’t. I’ll also throw in a few guys to avoid at the end, so be sure to read all the way through. I’ll be exclusively focusing on Underdog, though I plan to draft on DraftKings as well.

Quarterbacks

Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)

ADP: 103.8
Round: 9th

The ADP smells ever-so-slightly of “shiny new toy” syndrome, but after what we saw from the start of the season for Anthony Richardson and the absolute boom of CJ Stroud down the stretch, everyone is searching for the new “it” kid. I believe Daniels can be it.

If you were gunning for Anthony Richardson and happen to strike out, you can consider Daniels an “Anthony Richardson lite” with his ability to get yards on the ground. He arguably is already a better passer than Richardson as well, so there’s certainly potential here. His career comparison could be Lamar Jackson when it’s all said and done, but there’s likely going to be a learning curve. There wasn’t much of one with Stroud last season though. Stroud wound up QB11 on the season and that could be a similar outcome here if all goes right. The Commanders aren’t expected to win many games, but that doesn’t matter to us much in fantasy.

The bad offensive line in Washington may force Daniels to get out and make plays with his legs an awful lot this season, and he’s a fantastic rushing QB. There’s an insanely high ceiling here, though of course there is also an increased risk of injury as we saw with Richardson last season. If you need a QB in the 9th round, he’s by far the best bet to go off for you in this format though.

Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)

ADP: 123.6
Round: 11th

Oh yes, we’re back baby. Those who were reading me last season before the games even started know I was ALL OVER Jared Goff. I wrote as much in this article, where I called a few other QB sleepers I liked. I said his ceiling was QB6 and they laughed. Guess where he ended up? QB7. We didn’t even get full Goff, guys.

All joking aside, the Lions have every incentive to run it back with little changing other than two things that make me like Goff even MORE this season: 1. Jahmyr Gibbs getting a larger role over David Montgomery in his second years and 2. Jameson Williams looking like he could finally break out. For Gibbs, he’s the far superior pass-catching back (though Montgomery isn’t too shabby these days either), but he also has a much higher ceiling when it comes to big play ability. It’s one more weapon for Goff. Dan Campbell is already talking up Jameson Williams in OTAs, and he’s a much more mature player at this point.

We know that Goff can be inconsistent, and that played out to a maximum last year with seven QB11 or better weeks and seven QB18 or worse weeks in the same season. There are many theories out there, like home versus away games, domes versus open air stadiums, and more. Ultimately there’s not one factor that leads to this increase or decrease in production. That doesn’t matter to us much in best ball though since we don’t need to choose when to play and sit him. Just make sure you have a high-ceiling backup in case Goff is your QB1 and pray that their spikes in production don’t line up too often.

Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

ADP: 149.2
Round: 13th

Stafford is certainly in the twilight of his career at this point, but the only options behind him are Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. Not exactly inspiring options. He should be slotted in to start the 2024-25 season yet again for a team that is projected once again to be competitive. The Rams boast an improved secondary to boot. ESPN has them ranked 14th in their power rankings, so as long as they don’t have a disastrous start, and Stafford can stay healthy, we should count on him to start the entire season.

What’s most interesting is looking at Stafford’s performance from Week 12 to Week 16. In that month-long stretch, Stafford produced top-12 numbers with a QB5, QB7, and QB8 finish mixed in. We all know that Cooper Kupp dealt with a soft tissue injury that was very hard for him to shake, so perhaps this coincides with Stafford’s ascension, but the gang is getting back together here and there’s little reason to think that Stafford’s ceiling has significantly changed. Stafford only missed two weeks all of last season with a game missed in Week 9 due to a thumb injury and being inactive in Week 18 with the Rams out of the playoff picture.

I would view him as a firm QB2 if your QB1 is shaky, but it’s going to be hard to rely on him as your QB1 since there’s such a high chance of injury.

Daniel Jones (New York Giants)

ADP: 205.4
Round: 18th

I know it’s gross, but look you pretty much get him for free in the final two rounds of your drafts. If you’re still scraping for a backup, he’s going to get plenty of opportunities. He recently signed a massive contract with this Giants team so there’s every incentive for them to figure out a way to maximize Jones’ production rather than turn to Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito yet again.

The Giants are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league again, so drafting Jones certainly will fly in the face of convention, but that’s exactly why it’s a good “zig while they zag” move. You can get any of the other pieces on the Giants for very depressed prices right now. So if you’re into it, load on up. Jones is coming off an ACL tear, but theoretically he is capable of rushing the football still. He is targeting training camp for his return to play.

Running Backs

Joe Mixon (Houston Texans)

ADP: 59.8
Round: 5th

Mixon proved last season that he has the skills to be a very strong RB1 as he worked his way to nine finishes as RB16 or better and eight finishes as RB14 or better on a Bengals team that was almost smack dab in the middle of the pack when it comes to offensive efficiency. Now he gets to be RB1 on a Texans team that is primed for a big season. Everyone is clamoring to nab one of the wide receivers or CJ Stroud, but Mixon hasn’t gotten quite as much love in my opinion. The scoring opportunities are going to be there for Mixon even though there will be many mouths to feed in Houston.

Dameon Pierce was an unmitigated disaster in the backfield last year, forcing the Texans to turn to Devin Singletary by Week 6. Singletary is gone this season, but guess who remained on the team to be Mixon’s backup? You guessed it: the aforementioned Pierce is the only threat to Mixon’s playing time. Mixon is much better in the passing game than either option they had last season, so if we’re all projecting the Texans to run away with fantastic offensive efficiency, why would we not include Mixon in that love fest?

Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots)

ADP: 81.9
Round: 7th

Are the Patriots going to be very bad? That’s very likely. Will their offense be dreadful in some games? You better believe it. Yet, we’re able to get a bellcow back in the 7th round here on a team where the struggles are most likely to come from the quarterback position. I’m in love with this play.

Behind Stevenson is Antonio Gibson, who should get his touches, but it’s not like there’s a young guy that is pressing Stevenson (26) for touches. He’s right in his prime and it can’t be much worse than last season. He only made it through 12 games before missing time with a right ankle injury. In those 12 games, he hit the top 10 in three of those games. That’s 25% of his games where he was RB9 or better, which is pretty good considering he’s likely to be your RB2 and that rate is likely to climb with more scoring opportunities.

Zamir White (Las Vegas Raiders)

ADP: 84.2
Round: 8th

If you miss out on Rhamondre Stevenson, Zamir White is the next guy you can aggressively target as your RB2 or in “zero RB” builds. It’s another gross offensive environment, but not as gross with a fair wide receiver room that should get this team in position to score.

When the Raiders made the decision to put Josh Jacobs on the inactive list in Week 15, White went on to an RB16 or better finish in three of four games. Aiden O’Connell opens under center, and he was much better than Garoppolo last season. No matter who is around him on the offense though, White seems locked into the RB1 role for the season. His competition is the underwhelming Alexander Mattison. It seems clear that White is set up for a heavy workload and barring any trades that should hold true no matter the record of the team as well.

Zack Moss (Cincinnati Bengals)

ADP: 92.4
Round: 8th

26-year-old Zack Moss will share the backfield with Chase Brown in Cincinnati, and honestly it’s worthwhile to take stabs on both guys if you’re projecting the Bengals (and Joe Burrow) to bounce back after a disappointing 2023-24 campaign. As mentioned above, they were painfully smack dab in the middle of the pack when they should have been much better. Weapons like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were held in check last season, but if they can take off like we know they should this season then we should expect more scoring opportunities for Moss.

As mentioned above, Mixon wound up the RB5 on the season in Half-PPR leagues, and that was in arguably a down year. I don’t think Moss is as talented as Mixon, but he should still have plenty of opportunities and is my preferred grab over Brown at the moment unless their ADPs get wildly farther apart. Moss opened last season on fire with six of seven games as RB18 or better from Week 2 to Week 8 before Jonathan Taylor eventually returned. He had an RB4 and RB2 performance mixed in there. Assuming he’s your third RB, or second RB in a “zero RB build,” he is a very solid selection on draft day.

Austin Ekeler (Washington Commanders)

ADP: 119.3
Round: 10th

We’re getting a super-duper discount on Ekeler after several seasons as a first round guy in drafts. There may be some name recognition inflation here, but otherwise I’m totally fine snapping up Ekeler everywhere at this point in drafts. He’s slotted to take over the Antonio Gibson role from last season, but he’ll be even better in the pass game and thus he’s a more attractive guy in PPR settings. Underdog is Half-PPR, but even with taking that into consideration take a moment to contemplate what might go down if Brian Robinson suffers an injury. They have no one else on the roster with a pedigree anywhere close to Ekeler.

We know Ekeler cares about fantasy football and is an outspoken proponent for the game. He tries to play through everything as a result, and that may have been why he had his worst season since 2018 last year. He went down with an ankle injury in Week 1 and really never looked right after that. He’s 29 and on the precipice of the normal timeline for a decline, but I’m hoping there’s at least one monster season left in his tank. The rushing ability of rookie QB Jayden Daniels should open up some interesting opportunities for Ekeler. The wide receiving room is fine, but having Zach Ertz as their starting tight end is certainly an interesting choice. Behind Scary Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, I don’t know how Ekeler isn’t the third guy in volume of targets.

Eric Gray (New York Giants)

ADP: 215.3
Round: 18th

Many have Devin Singletary penciled in as the starting running back, but it turns out Gray is getting reps with the first team in OTAs. It’s still way too early to guess who will get the bulk share of the workload, but it makes way more sense to take stabs at Gray with your last pick if you find yourself in desperate need of an RB late over jumping on Singletary in Round 10. I’d be very wary of Singletary, as a matter of fact.

Daniel Jones is recovering from an ACL injury, which may limit his ability to display any mobility, at least to start the season. The Giants may find themselves in a lot of situations where they’re looking to manage the clock in order to eke out wins. Those two to four-yard runs aren’t what we’re looking for in best ball, but when you add them up, he could be a decent emergency depth piece if you’re staring down a bye-heavy week and need to avoid a zero. A lead back is a lead back, even on a very crappy team.

Wide Receivers

Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)

ADP: 14.6
Round: 2nd

If I’m drafting late in the first round, it’s been between Garrett Wilson and Drake London so far and I’ve gone both ways. London is the later ADP though and I’m thinking bout snapping him up even sooner as I get more of these drafts under my belt. London was only WR39 last season, but had to battle both having Desmond Ridder under center and having Arthur Smith being absolutely ridiculous about the talent that was already on the roster.

He had 69 receptions for 905 yards with those issues, and now he gets pocket-passer Kirk Cousins (and maybe some Michael Penix Jr. as well) which will help him tremendously. Despite the muted production, London enjoyed increases in yards per catch, had a 23% target share, and a 31% air yards share. He’s the clear-cut WR1 and scores more fantasy points per target than Wilson.

The biggest drain on London’s value last season was his lack of touchdowns, and that should be fixed this season in a major way. If he can get to the 8-10 range, he can climb the WR rankings on his way to easy first round value.

Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

ADP: 69.0
Round: 6th

I’ll likely end up overweighted on Godwin as well. He’s in a contract year and the rumor is that they’re going to move him back into the slot more. That should be good for his overall value as we saw tight end Cade Otton line up in the slot often last season on his way to 455 yards and four touchdowns. Godwin wound up as the WR30 last year even without this touchdown production. He had only two touchdowns all year. For some reason he’s going off the board at WR39 to start this season.

Of course, there is some risk here as the Bucs could choose to deal him if they can’t work out a longer term deal with him. The Buccaneers are a very decent team though, with positive news rolling in already like nose tackle Vita Vea losing a bunch of weight to stay healthy for the upcoming season and Baker Mayfield continuing to grow in his confidence. Retaining Godwin for this season, at the very least, makes sense. If he were to move to another team, he may not be the WR2.

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