Last Updated on February 2, 2023 1:52 pm by Steve Vidovich | Published: January 18, 2023

GM: Steven Bagell, @BirdRightsPod

Salary Cap: $150,104,170

Luxury Tax: $162,830

• Given they are right under the luxury tax, it’ll be tough to take back much salary in a trade unless they salary dump a player

GOAL: Search the market for upgrades, but I don’t think anything will be out there without pushing you into the tax

Priorities

• Honestly, I’m not sure there’s much the Heat will be able to do without going into the tax, as they would need to salary dump a player to get breathing room under the tax, plus Oladipo is their best mid-tier salary for an upgrade trade, and he has a one year NTC

• Try getting off Duncan Robinson’s 4/$74.5 contract

Players to Dangle

Kyle Lowry (2/$50)

o   You gotta at least test the market for him, right?

o   Salary: $28,333,334

o   You can salary match up to $35,516,667 but it puts you into the tax

o   Targets

• DeMar DeRozan
• Spencer Dinwiddie+
• D’Angelo Russell
• Pascal Siakam or Fred VanVleet

Duncan Robinson (4/$74)

o   Salary: $16,902,000

o   Can salary match up to $21,227,777 but it puts you into the tax

o   Targets:

• Tim Hardaway Jr. & Davis Bertans from Dallas
• Doug McDermott for Robinson + an asset

Victor Oladipo (2/$18.2 w/ PO in 2023-24)

o   Salary: $8,750,000

o   Can salary match up to $11,037,500

o   One year no trade clause so I doubt he agrees to offer

o   Targets:

• Would Oladipo be willing to go to Brooklyn? If so, Seth Curry potentially
• Jae Crowder

Caleb Martin (3/$20.4 w/ PO in 2024-25)

o   Salary: $6,479,000

o   Can salary match up to $8,198,750 but again, puts you into the tax

o   Doubt Miami would want to move him but aside from Oladipo, he’s the only mid-tier salary you can trade

o   Targets:

• PJ Washington for Martin + a first?
• Cam Reddish

Dewayne Dedmon (2/$9)

o   Would you salary dump him into a TPE such as Denver or Clippers for salary relief for a subsequent trade?

o   If you move him, then you sign Orlando Robinson to a standard NBA contract

o  Salary: $4,700,00

o   Targets:

• Saddiq Bey for Dedmon + lightly protected first
• KJ Martin for a minimum salary + a first round pick
• Immanuel Quickley for a minimum + 1st
• Amir Coffey
• George Hill, Dedmon to a third team
• Mike Muscala
• Jarred Vanderbilt

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Assets Owned

• 2023 1st
• 2024 1st
• 2025 1st (lotto protected to OKC)
• 2026 1st (to OKC if 2025 not conveyed)
• 2027 1st
• 2028 1st
• 2029 1st
• 2024 2nd (top 50 protected)
• 2026 2nd (less favorable of DAL, OKC, & PHI)
• 2028 2nd
• 2029 2nd

 

Mock Trades to Date (Feb 2 Deadline)

 

The Clippers shock the world!

TRADE: 

The Clippers receive: Tim Hardaway Jr.,  Davis Bertans, TyTy Washington, JaVale McGee, Jae’Sean Tate, Alperen Sengun, 2023 MIA 1st, 2024 BKN 1st, 2026 BKN 1st, 2028 HOU 1st (top-10 protected), 2024 BKN 2nd round pick, 2024 GSW 2nd round pick, 2023 first round pick swap with Milwaukee’s first round pick

The Rockets receive: Kawhi Leonard, Jason Preston, Udonis Haslem, BJ Boston, and cash considerations

The Heat receive: Eric Gordon and Boban Marjanovic

The Mavericks receive: Norman Powell, Reggie Jackson, Duncan Robinson, and Dewayne Dedmon

 

We have a winner for the “which trade we’ve completed that’s least likely to happen in real life” award! I don’t believe either the Rockets or Clippers would do this deal in real life, but this is still an intriguing one. Kawhi Leonard is a tough evaluation for a trade candidate because he’s starting to play like his old self the last couple of weeks after looking like a shell of it earlier in the season. But despite their .500 record, the Clippers still have their eyes set on a championship. I had both the Clippers GM, Yossi Gozlan, as well as the Rockets GM, Cooper Klein on the Bird Rights Podcast to justify their sides of it. For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard’s knee issues are concerning, and they were able to get a ransom of a package back for him. Additionally, the Clippers saved around $50 million on their luxury tax bill by completing this trade. Steve Ballmer is the richest owner in the sport and I’ve been on record saying going deep into the luxury tax is the biggest competitive advantage in sports, but the Clippers were still mindful of their tax bill. Before it’s all said and done, it’s possible the Clippers trade Paul George too. However, in reality, the Clippers do not control their own draft pick until 2027, so blowing it to that extent is seen as extremely unlikely.

For the Rockets, their goal is simple: lure James Harden back to Houston. With Kawhi Leonard in town, a reunion with Houston would seem a lot more appealing to The Beard and if healthy, the Rockets could become immediate contenders. The Rockets would have ample cap space to bring Harden in, and suddenly a core of Kawhi-Harden-Jalen Green-Jabari Smith-Kevin Porter Jr., in addition to this year’s lottery pick, becomes one of the more intriguing cores in the league.

For the Heat, they basically turn Duncan Robinson and their 2023 first into Eric Gordon and Boban. Gordon is on an expiring deal essentially (non guaranteed deal in 2023-24), and with Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler’s extensions kicking in, the Heat will be in cap hell going forward after this year. Getting rid of Robinson’s contract would’ve taken a first round pick on its own, so the fact that Miami was able to get a high-level rotation player and get off Robinson’s deal all with one first is great management. 

For Dallas, they took on Robinson’s money but got off the remaining years for Bertans, Tim Hardaway Jr., and McGee. They also finally acquired the third ball-handler their system needs since losing Jalen Brunson with Reggie Jackson, and Norman Powell would be a far superior sixth-man than Hardaway was. The Mavericks got significantly better in this deal, and all they gave up was Hardaway, Bertans, and McGee. Excellent business by Miami and Dallas to jump in on a very large deal and both accomplish things they wanted to accomplish with minimal assets. 

 

Crowder finally on the move

Nets receive: Boban Marjanovic, 2026 2nd (least favorable of DAL, OKC, and PHI) via Miami, and cash considerations from Phoenix

Heat receive: Kessler Edwards and Jae Crowder

Suns receive: Bojan Bogdanovic, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith, Detroit 2023 2nd, Miami 2029 2nd, and Day’Ron Sharpe

Pistons receive: Landry Shamet, Dario Saric, Josh Okogie, Suns 2023 1st (top-4 protected each year through 2028, then becomes PHX 28 and 29 2nds), Phoenix 2023 2nd, and MIA 2028 2nd

 

This is a big one to process. After the Heat had already got off Duncan Robinson’s contract by giving up a 2023 first and acquiring Eric Gordon in the process, the Heat further solidified a position of need by adding Jae Crowder to the fold. Crowder is also on an expiring contract but given his previous ties to Miami, there’s a strong likelihood that he would re-sign for around mid-level exception money this summer. Miami essentially flipped Caleb Martin, Dedmon, Highsmith, three seconds, and their 2023 1st-round pick in order to acquire Gordon, Crowder, and get off Duncan Robinson’s money. All of this occurred while they were just $150,000 under the tax and found a way to remain under the tax. Impressive cap gymnastics by the Heat.

For the Nets, Boban is a veteran presence and a great culture guy that’ll add leadership to a locker room who needs it. Brooklyn took on a second-round pick for losing Sharpe and Kessler Edwards but on this veteran-laden team, neither guy was going to provide much. For the Suns, they finally got off Crowder for a contributor but it came at the expense of their 2023 1st. But with Devin Booker expected back this week, Phoenix adds Bojan Bogdanovic to the mix and can bring Cam Johnson off the bench again. Caleb Martin also provides the Suns with some wing depth and Day’Ron Sharpe may automatically be the best backup big man behind Deandre Ayton on this team. 

For Detroit, they were hesitant to move Bogdanovic. With him signing an extension earlier in the season, they weren’t in a rush to move him as they viewed him as a real member of their core. But Phoenix has struggled this year, and quite frankly can fall out of the playoff picture if they don’t right the ship soon, so that first-round pick along with a couple seconds was valuable to them. It was reported Bogdanovic won’t be moved unless an unprotected pick was involved but here, a top-four protected Phoenix first is what got it done. Also, with Dario Saric’s contract expiring, Detroit opens up additional cap space this summer.

 

Heat dodge the luxury tax

Heat trade Gabe Vincent and cash considerations to the Utah Jazz for 2026 UTA 2nd and 2029 UTA 2nd

 

After I praised Miami for the job they did in this exercise, they weren’t quite savvy enough. They were roughly $440,000 under the luxury tax with 12 guys on the roster. If they converted two-way player Orlando Robinson to a standard minimum rookie contract and prorated it from March 1st, he would cost roughly $233,000 plus his tax variance. As a result, the Heat would not be able to get to the NBA’s mandated 14-man minimum roster spots without going into the tax. For this reason, Vincent had to become expendable. Vincent has been a very reliable backup point guard for the shaky Kyle Lowry this past season, but he isn’t worth going into the tax, and eventually the repeater tax for. Additionally, Miami gave up a first and three second-round picks in the deals to acquire Eric Gordon and Jae Crowder, so by recouping two seconds in this deal, they stash assets back in the cupboard. Now, they can sign three guys to minimums whether it be G League guys or a player from the buyout market, but Miami can depend on a committee of Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and even Victor Oladipo to handle their ball-handling duties. 

For Utah, they desperately were searching for the market for a backup point guard to Mike Conley. Jordan Clarkson isn’t a true playmaker, and Utah wanted a legitimate point guard to come off the bench. Utah struck out in negotiations for guys like Payton Pritchard and Andrew Nembhard, so they settled for Vincent.