• Welcome back to The Snell Game! This week I’ve got more predictions; more snark; more statistical excellence; way, way more statistical irrelevance; and one of the weirdest things I’ve seen recently, and I can’t wait to share it all with you. Let’s get right into it then!

    The Crystal Ball Report

    As per the new norm, I’ll start off with a recap of predictions from last week’s column.  Was I a scion of great prophecy? Or just some knucklehead cloaked in data and an overabundance of free time? Let’s travel down the dark path to enlightenment once more, shall we? Muhahahaha!

    *a reminder that all rankings are 9-cat per game over the last two weeks unless otherwise specified

    Terry Rozier tipped the scales last edition at No. 3 and I didn’t think his shooting would last but it has, as he’s currently up to  No. 2 this time around.  I’m tempted to call this a push because I know those numbers are coming down at some point and I did say he would continue to improve on his season-long rank but I’ll take my lumps to prove I’m jot juicing the stats. LOSS.

    Kyle Kuzma managed to jump up to No. 7 last time out and I called fading him the easiest thing I could do. I was right as he’s fallen all the way back to No. 124 after a dreadful KP-filled week. WIN.

    Cam Thomas and Jae Crowder were No. 8 and 23 respectively. I said it wouldn’t last but I did think that they’d both eventually wind up inside the top-70. Thomas has been injured and Crowder’s play had him slip down to No. 82, although both are inside the top-70 over the last couple of months. This one is too close to call as of yet, making it a PUSH.

    Tyrese Maxey had it rocking at No. 11 but his shooting was poor and he fell way down to No. 91. That’s worse than I thought, although he’s still on track for the season. That sounds like another PUSH to me.

    De’Aaron Fox was No. 43 and I thought he’d be a lock to come within the top-50 ROS. Well, last time I checked No. 25 is inside the top-50. WIN.

    Spencer Dinwiddie got it up to No. 53 thanks to some blistering field goal numbers (by his standards) but we saw that shooting regress back to something closer to his career mark which dragged his ranking down to No. 122. I thought he’d wind up in the top-100-125 window, so this is another WIN.

    Tobias Harris was way down at No. 129 thanks to some hideous shooting which I thought would come back with a vengeance. Well, it took all the way until Sunday to see it but he finished the week at 50% shooting and is definitely tracking back towards the inside of the top-100, though he was on the outside of it (No. 102) over the last two weeks. This one is a tough LOSS but I’m still confident it will become a winner in time.

    Anfernee Simons at No.129 and injured seemed like easy money, to me, in terms of expecting it to continue, and that has proven to be true as he’s No. 176 this time out. A sad win is still a WIN.

    Jaren Jackson Jr.’s No. 143 rank last time caused me to scoff to such a degree that I didn’t even bother to predict how much higher he would rise this time out (No. 18 last week and No. 97 over two weeks) making this an incredibly easy WIN.

    Derrick White was way down at No. 181, well off of his then season-long rank of No. 66 and although he has been better, it was only good enough for a No. 129 valuation last week (and No. 164 over the last two). His season-long mark is now No. 126 which is right in the pocket where I said he’d wind up, making this an ugly WIN.

    *That puts me at a respectable 6-2-2 with my crystal ball for this week and gets me to 14-3-3 overall. It also means that now that we’ve cleared old business it’s time once again for:

    Is This Real Life? Is This Just Fantasy?

    Scottie Barnes and his unassailably cute dimples and bourgeoning jack-of-all-trades fantasy game had it singing to the tune of No. 18 thanks in part to injuries to key players in the Raptors rotation.

    Verdict: Fact (sort of). Now, while his FG% and steals rate are due to regress, I’m saying he beats his season-long rank of No. 64 from here on out and has it inside the top-50 ROS. The only real question is how high should he be drafted next year? I think he’s probably a fourth-rounder at worst which might not completely kill his value.

    Steph Curry has long been one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy basketball, so to see him down at No. 24 is a little shocking.

    Verdict: Fantasy, but barely. Steph’s only been the No.13 player over the last two months and that’s right around where I think he’ll finish out. He’ll certainly see some easier shots when Draymond comes back but he’s unlikely to get back up inside the top-10 ROS.

    Mo Bamba bombed his way into a No. 31 valuation by improving his FG%, 3PM and rebound numbers.

    Verdict: Fantasy. Bamba did all that without seeing his minutes increase, so, while I do think he will be right around the top-60 ROS, I don’t believe he can stay at quite the same level he’s been at lately.

    Jordan Poole has been shooting lights out and has seen it result in a No. 34 ranking.

    Verdict: Fantasy. Poole is shooting 45.3% on the season, well below the astounding 58% during the period in question and I fully expect a regression for the No. 77 ranked player on the year.

    Bruce Brown has been playing as the No. 52 player of late and he’s been giving his teams a little bit of everything without too much of anything bad.

    Verdict: Real life. I don’t think he’s going to stay in the top-50 but he should easily maintain top-80 status, at least until Ben Simmons gets back, whenever that might be.

    Malik Beasley at No. 55? Nah.

    Verdict: Fantasy. The increased minutes and FG% of this recent run simply will not hold for the currently 184th ranked player on the year.

    Trendon Watford has seen his role increase and his stats have come up right along with his minutes. His position at No. 56 is no accident.

    Verdict: Real life.  I’ve been touting Watford as one to watch in my Sunday editions of Pickups of the Night for a minute as his per-36 numbers have long foretold this kind of potential. Will he keep it up as a top-60 player, maybe not, but I’m convinced he’s within the top-85 or so, provided the Blazers don’t find a way to keep him on the bench.

    Isaiah Roby has been getting minutes and doing stuff—he had been the 39th ranked player before Sunday’s dud pushed him all the way down to No. 70.

    Verdict: Fantasy. Most of this has to do with my suspicion that the Thunder are at the absolute apex in terms of finding ways to curtail the hot runs of their players in their never-ending quest for Ping-Pong balls but it’s also to do with him just not being that great. Can he get inside the top-100, probably, but can he remain top-70? Nah.

    Jalen Green has found his shot and it’s carried his otherwise meager fantasy game all the way up to No. 84.

    Verdict. Fantasy.  He’s been shooting better than ever before—much, much better—but he doesn’t do anything else so as soon as his FG% sinks, so will his ranking.

    Gary Trent Jr. has been struggling to chuck it into the ocean lately and his ranking has sunk to No. 93 as a result.

    Verdict: Fantasy. He’s been an icy 32.8% FG shooter lately but the rest of his game has remained stable. He’ll see both his shooting and his ranking get back to season-long levels in short order.

    The Anomalisticle

    This week’s edition needs a bit of an introduction for any who have not been indoctrinated in the statistical ways of the Trillionaire. The trillion is perhaps the most irrelevant of all statistical achievements. Here is a little history on the term from the blog Basketbawful:

    The term was invented by Scott Hastings, who managed to hang around for 12 seasons as a career backup/role player/scrub. Near as I’ve been able to determine, he created the trillion in 1990, as evidenced by this reference in the Sports Illustrated Vault: “Scott Hastings, little-used Piston forward, who claims to lead the NBA in a category that he calls the ‘trillion’: ‘That’s when the box score reads one minute played followed by 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 .'” (Props to Hastings, not only for the uncommon self-awareness, but also for inventing a statistic to quantify his suckitude.)

    Obviously, this is exactly the kind of statistical weirdness that we love here at The Snell Game, but I must warn you, once you start hunting for trillions you’ll find them everywhere—a bizarre feature of our collective unconscious perhaps, and a part of the so-called lattice of coincidence that some have famously analogized as a plate of shrimp.

    I hope you freaks are hungry:

    1. On March 7th, Max Strus had a three trillionaire game!!!
    2. Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot had a standard trillion for the Hawks in the same game.
    3. On March the 9th, Luke Hornet and Sam Hauser each got one for the Celtics while Kelan Martin was just one rebound away from joining Club Trillion.
    4. In the same game, God of Thunder, JT Thor, shot invisible lightning through the box score for his own trillion, while teammate Nick Richards managed to come one missed shot away from doing it himself.
    5. On the same night, Jalen Johnson got one for the Hawks.
    6. Not to be outdone, DeAndre’ Bembry had a two-trillion night for the Bucks playing in the same game.
    7. Gabe Vincent joined the club on the 11th.
    8. Armoni Brooks would have become one of the “richest” men alive on March 10th when he became a statistically marvelous four-trillionaire were it not for:
    9. Cam Thomas becoming an EIGHT-TRILLIONAIRE on Sunday vs. the Knicks.
    10. Though not a trillion, our namesake—outstanding defender, dead-eye 3-point shooter and absolute statistical whisper—Tony Snell—racked up zero points (0-4), one rebound and two steals in 31 minutes of what can only be described as Snellacious action.
    11. There’s no stat here. I just wanted to let this spot serve as a tribute to all the zeros poured out by our aforementioned heroes of the trillion.
    12. There’s no stat here either, but Darius Garland getting familiar with Alex Caruso is one of the weirdest things you’re going to see today and, as such, it belongs on the list.

     

    *See something you like? Something you hate? Have some stats you think I missed? Head on over to Twitter and find me @sumocartwheel and let’s keep the conversation going!

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