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March 1, 2022, 1:28 amLast Updated on March 1, 2022 1:28 am by Mike Passador | Published: March 1, 2022
Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Snell Game, a column that takes its name from our eponymous anomalistic super hero, Tony Snell. In this column, I will seek out statistical anomalies of all kinds hoops related, I will examine real-life and fantasy trends and attempt to answer the tough questions: Is this real life? Is this just fantasy? I will be waving my mojo hand over all kinds of data in an earnest attempt to divine which trends can be trusted and which are merely fool’s gold. Lastly, I will attempt to do all this while keeping an eye on the interplay between real-life perception and fantasy value and how that might make or break your hopes of conjuring a winning trade and or draft strategy.
At this point in the season most players’ value is relatively assured and if you are a subscriber on this platform you probably already have a keen understanding of the kinds of real-life superstars that don’t live up to their reputations from a fantasy perspective—players like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook (though he’s being faded in real-life these days too) and Ja Morant spring to mind. On the other side of the coin you will find players who are typically slept on, ignored or under drafted because their value isn’t based so much in the casual fan’s so-called popcorn stats—guys like Mikal Bridges, Derrick White and Bobby Portis. Heck, even Chuma Okeke at this point.
Each week this column will have two main sections: The first, which I’m calling, “Is This Real Life? Is This Just Fantasy?”, will be a look at player trends and will contain some analysis and potential soothsaying about whether or not those trends can continue. I’ve elected to cover two-week segments (and have covered the last month to get us started today) even though this will be a weekly column so that we can have some overlap and larger sample-size. Also, it’s a baked-in way to do some self-reporting.
My goal is less about being right all the time and more about being a reliable source of analysis in the face of such a complex and ever-shifting fantasy landscape—plus it’s just cool to look at how and when players get hot or cold. The second segment is pure unbridled statistical joy—a section entitled “The Anomalisticle,” wherein I will scour the data mines of the interweb to bring you all the juicy, obscure and even ridiculous statistical nuggets that I’ve been able to dig up. So, without further ado:
Is this Real Life? Is this Just Fantasy?
*For this week, I’ve chosen to use stats from over the last month in order to give us a wider base from which to begin. All rankings are 9-cat per game unless otherwise noted.
Donovan Mitchell has been the No. 3 player over the last month based in large part on a hot shooting streak and a smaller sample size (only seven games played). He sits at No. 12 on the year with the only real changes to his game being an increase in steals year-over year from 1.0 to 1.6.
Verdict: Push. Mitchell is awesome right now for a depleted Jazz squad but shouldn’t be trusted to keep up this pace in the short or long-term. He will likely get ridiculously over drafted next year. Don’t fall for it.
DeMar DeRozan sits just one spot behind Spida thanks to an unprecedented run of dominance from mid-range and free throw line and currently sits at No. 18 on the year.
Verdict: Fantasy. This hot streak has been the fantasy of all fantasies—and I mean that in a good way too—but it’s highly unlikely that Deebo will ever be able to replicate it, especially with the Bulls getting many of their injured players back soon. He’s another candidate to be hugely over drafted next season.
Tyrese Haliburton sits at No. 8 (No. 25 for the year) thanks to a robust blend of injuries in his former spot and opportunity and trust in his new one. He’s absolutely mashing it lately with 19.1 points, 10.4 assists and 2.2 steals per game.
Verdict: Real-life. Hali may not be a top-10 player next season but if you want him on your squad you’re likely going to have to use a mid-second rounder and while he may not be a value in that range, he’s more than likely going to be worth it.
Devin Booker comes in at No. 10 (No. 27 on the season) and climbing thanks to the Chris Paul injury. He’s got it up to 27.1 points in the latest stretch, his assists are on the rise, as well, and he is also snagging 1.5 steals and 0.5 blocks.Verdict: Push. Book has been accruing defensive stats at about double his rate from last season over the last month and while I don’t trust that to hold, there is no doubt that his scoring and assist numbers will keep his value above his season-long rank. He won’t be in the top-10 ROS but he should be inside the top-20.
Chuma Okeke has been shot out of a cannon, coming in at No. 20 in our sample thanks to sterling defensive numbers and efficiency—11.7 points (47.2% FG, 84.6% FT, 2.4 3PM), 1.8 steals, 1.0 blocks and a whispery 0.7 turnovers in 25.6 minutes per game.
Verdict: Fantasy—but not by much. The dude needs to be called Chuma O’Sneaky because he’s been the No. 36 player over the last two months. However, I don’t think that will last based largely on his currently unsustainable shooting streak (he’s only 39.1% for his career). Nonetheless, he’s more than capable of being a top-60 asset ROS. I’m going to try not to hype him too much in an effort to keep his status afloat as a late round value pick for next season despite the (maybe?) return of Jonathan Isaac.
Fred VanVleet has been dealing with injuries and has fallen all the way down to No. 30 this past month. Nick Nurse loves to give his guys piles and piles of minutes which may or may not be the best thing to do with an undersized, injury prone point guard tasked with his first season as the No. 1 guy.
Verdict: Real life. I just don’t see Freddy being healthy enough to remain a steady top-10 player ROS. My magic 8-ball says it sucks but that’s just how it’s going to be. We’ll see how it goes but injuries may need to be a bigger part of FVV’s draft valuation moving forward despite his currently being top-10 in totals on the year.
Keldon Johnson has jumped from No. 133 all the way up to No. 44 lately on the back of 20.2 points (47.6% FG, 92.3% FT, 2.7 3PM) against 1.3 turnovers.
Verdict: Fantasy. Big Body gets virtually zero defensive stats and he’s shooting way over his career FT number of late. He’s a young guy who will see improvement but he seems destined to be a top-100 type rather than top-50 type.
Javonte Green is another unheralded player sneaking inside the top-50, coming in at No. 49. He gives you great defensive stats (1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks) along with stellar efficiency (59.1 % FG, 91.3 FT%, 0.5 turnovers) and has been scoring almost 12 points a game lately.
Verdict: Fantasy. It’s hard to see Woo maintaining his scoring clip once the Bulls are healthy despite being likely to retain his starting job and minutes. Top-50 is simply too much to ask although he’s unlikely to fall beyond standard league streamer territory either.
Maxi Kleber has had it working as the only Mavs player able to replicate the recently jettisoned Kristaps Porzingis’s blend of outside shooting and rim protection. Kleber has been the No. 54 player, averaging 9.6 points (45.3% FG, 80% FT, 1.8 3PM), 7.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 1.7 blocks in 27.2 minutes in this recent stretch.
Verdict: Fantasy. Maxi is a must-have guy in 12-team leagues but his shooting and defensive marks are well above career numbers in similar minutes. No doubt he’s got a better role with KP and Rick Carlisle out of town and his prospects look good ROS, just not top-55 good. I figure he’ll settle around the top-100, right where he has been over the last two months.
Ja Morant has barely been inside the top-100 over the last month, clocking in at No. 94. How could that be, you say, when the guy is averaging 31.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.2 assists and belongs in the MVP conversation? Well, my friends, I’m here today to remind you that Temetrius Jamel’s 3 .8 turnovers and 72.2% FT (on 9.8 attempts!) are hurting your team far more than his mind-boggling array of acrobatic 360 layups and thunderous dunks will ever help you.
Verdict: Real life. No, he’s not going to sit this low ROS but his upside is severely limited until he can shore up his efficiency issues and knock down another 3-ball or so. He’s best for punt builds at this point and GMs should keep that in mind come draft season as he’s the No. 17 player on the year if you remove free throws and turnovers.
The Anomalisticle
1 – Steph Curry shot 16-27 from three during the All-Star game. Prior to that, only five players had ever even attempted 27 or more shots in an All-Star game: Rick Barry in 1967, MJ in 2003, KD in 2014, Russ in 2015 and AD in 2017.
2 – The Slam Dunk contest had zero 50-point dunks for the second year in a row, a feat not seen since 2001.
3 – Karl-Anthony Towns’ career 39.6% rate from three ranks as No. 1 all-time amongst centers and he just became the first center ever to win a 3-point shooting contest. Yes, Dirk Nowitzki did start 230 games at center but shot “only” 38.5% in those games and was a pure power forward when he won his 3-point title.
4 – Luka Doncic posted 49 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists on February 17th (he also had 45-15-8 just five days prior and 51-9-6 the day before that), joining Elgin Baylor (3X), Wilt Chamberlain (2X), Russell Westbrook (2X), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and James Harden as the only players to ever hit those marks. El Niño Maravilla was also the only one of the six to go 40-plus, 15-plus and 5-plus while also hitting 5-plus threes AND having a plus/minus of +20.
5 – Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.4 points and 11.3 rebounds while Joel Embiid is averaging 29.3 points and 11.2 rebounds. This is the first season two players have averaged 29 and 11 or more since 1970-71 when Elvin Hayes and Lew Alcindor (his last season under that name) posted 29.1 pts/16.4 rebounds and 31.5 points/15.6 rebounds respectively.
6 – DeMar DeRozan went into the All-Star break with 103 more mid-range jumpers (259) than his closest rival, Devin Booker (156).
7 – Nikola Jokic went into the All-Star break averaging 26 points, 13.8 rebounds and 7.9 assists. No one else had ever even made 25-12-6 before that.
8 – Were it to hold, Joel Embiid’s 31.8 PER heading into the break would be the highest of all-time were it not for…
9 – Giannis Antetokounpo’s current PER of 32.3 which would be the all-time mark if it holds were it not for…
10 – Nikola Jokic’s current PER of 32.6.
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Hey, yall! I forgot to mention in the article that if you like what you’ve read, have any comments or questions, or feel like suggesting a trend or stat for the Anomalisticle you can find me on Twitter @sumocartwheel ✌