• The Sixers’ 2018-19 season came to an end in dramatic fashion thanks to Kawhi Leonard and one of the most clutch shots in NBA history. After a third place finish in the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia easily moved past Brooklyn in the first round and battled their way all the way to the final second of the second round against Toronto. Leonard not only yanked a possible Finals berth right out from under Philadelphia, but also set in motion the reworking of an already capable and star-studded roster that led them to where they are today.

    Last season was supposed to be the year Philadelphia began to reap the benefits of “The Process.” They started the season with a playoff caliber team but eventually upped the ante and went all-in, trading for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris during the season. The roster was full of talent and poised to immediately contend for a championship. Then those four fateful bounces on the rim in Toronto changed it all.

    Butler made it clear he was no longer interested in Philadelphia and was traded to Miami for Josh Richardson. Tobias Harris, who Philly traded too much for, stuck around when they overpaid him in free agency with a 5-year, $180 million max contract. Shortly thereafter, instead of paying the squad’s only shooter, JJ Redick, who was coming off a career year, Philly threw $109 million at Al Horford and allowed Redick to head to New Orleans.

    Heading into the season Philadelphia had title aspirations. A Ben Simmons-Richardson-Harris-Horford-Joel Embiid starting lineup made 60 wins and a conference championship seem plausible. When at home they look the part, posting a 29-2 record on their own court so far. Unfortunately, they must go on the road where they are 26-16, leaving them sixth in the Eastern Conference. The original goals might be a little far-fetched but lack of depth on a clunky roster coupled with minimal improvements from the high-priced starting five have held the team back to this point and have given many the belief more changes are needed within both the coaching staff and roster.

    Let’s take a look at how we got here.

    Joel Embiid

    The Sixers will go as far as Joel Embiid can take them. When playing, Embiid is one of, if not the, most talented big men in the league and has become a star who has the potential to lead a team on both sides of the floor. Nagging injuries and questionable conditioning are just part of the total package Embiid brings to the franchise and this season was more of the same.

    After a breakout All-NBA second team performance in 2018-19 the expectations for this season were at an all time high. Unfortunately, playing in only 44 games so far, we have seen a drop in almost all of his numbers. From last season his only improvements are in 3P% and FT%, as FG% has dropped from 48.4% to 47.4% on almost three fewer attempts per game.

    Playing alongside Horford has hindered his production down low in a variety of ways. With less room to control the paint he has attempted a career low 33% of his field goals at the rim while conversely attempting a career high 47% in the mid-range. Ideally, a player with Embiid’s skill set would be on the floor surrounded by shooters and perimeter playmakers, two things Philadelphia lacks.

    A career year landed Embiid in the top-10 of last year’s rankings, resulting in a late first round ADP heading into this season. After being the second ranked fantasy center behind only Karl-Anthony Towns, he dropped from 27.5 points and 13.6 rebounds to 23.4 points and 11.8 rebounds per game but maintained his status as a top-20 fantasy player in both 8/9-cat, adding a 1.3 blocks and 0.9 steals over 30.2 minutes per game.

    The addition of Horford and the lack of improvement along the perimeter from the rest of the starting five has slightly lowered his production but overall the numbers he posts nightly are still on par with second round value. He is a double-double threat every time he steps on the floor and posts a combination of stats and percentages only a few other big men can replicate. Moving forward the injury concerns and uncertain roster and rotation construction will continue to worry owners but when on the floor the numbers speak for themselves.

    Ben Simmons

    Only 23 and in his third year, Ben Simmons is sporting numbers no other player in the history of the league has ever posted. The combination of 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists and a league-leading 2.1 steals per game on 58.5% shooting from the field has Simmons in a class of his own. These gaudy stats seem to be overshadowed by his resistance to adding an outside shot to his repertoire and it has become easy to critique Simmons based on the one thing he does not do as opposed to everything else he does.

    What Simmons brings to Philadelphia differs from what he brings to a fantasy team. In Philadelphia there are constant questions regarding his play and if his unique style can successfully coexist with Embiid. To have a player of his size and caliber who is dead set on being a point guard but refuses to even attempt a shot outside of 14 feet is unheard of.

    A ridiculous 72% of his shots come from within 4 feet of the basket, by far and away the highest number for any non-center. At first glance you would assume the above shot chart belongs to Rudy Gobert or DeAndre Jordan type. Ideally a roster boasting Simmons and Embiid would be filled out with shooters and players capable of spacing the floor and creating on the perimeter, leaving room for the two stars to operate, similar to what Milwaukee has successfully constructed with Giannis Antentokounmpo.

    Philadelphia used this blueprint to carry them to an Conference Finals appearance last season with Butler and Redick alongside Simmons. Trading those two out for Richardson and Horford has been detrimental to the team’s progress. The difference between Giannis and Simmons lies in the fact Giannis has expanded his game on the offensive end to the point where he needs to be somewhat respected as an outside threat.

    The addition of a primary ball handler who can shoot would allow Simmons to play a LeBron James-like point forward position where he can grab a rebound and get out in transition, where he thrives, or play off the ball in the half court on the block or in pick and roll situations. His size, athleticism and basketball IQ makes him deadly in those transition situations. Whether or not Simmons makes the changes to his game, or the front office makes accommodating roster changes, will be the difference in whether or not Philadelphia can break through and become consistent Finals contenders.

    On the fantasy side, most of the issues Simmons faces with Philadelphia are irrelevant. The lack of 3-point shooting does suppress his overall scoring but the combination and frequency of the remaining stats outweigh any concerns. In today’s NBA, finding a player to mask Simmons’ deficiencies and keep your team’s 3-point numbers respectable is easy to do.

    High turnovers (3.6/g)  and low FT% (62.7%) hold Simmons back from being a top-20 player on a per game basis. The turnover numbers were about the same last season, 3.5 per game, and resulted in a large discrepancy between his final 8/9-cat rankings. In 9-cat he finished the year 71st overall, but cut the turnovers out of the equation and he jumped all the way to 40th in 8-cat. Going into the season there were high hopes for improvement and his average draft position was 26. This season is much of the same as he ranks 20/34 in 8/9 cat while being top-10 in turnover percentage at 13.91.

    There is a very limited group of players throughout the league that post the well-rounded stats Simmons does and, if he can add any semblance of a mid-range to long distance shot over the coming years and boost his scoring numbers he will have a stat line similar to that of LeBron or Luka Doncic and both Philadelphia fans and fantasy owners will be beyond pleased.

    Al Horford

    Heading into the offseason, not many had Horford pegged as a potential Sixer. They ended up overpaying for a position they did not need and are now trying to find ways to make the roster work. Although locking up a 33-year old big man to a $109 million deal is questionable, on paper Horford should be a great fit. He is a veteran who has put up respectable, consistent numbers throughout his career and can provide playoff experience and guidance to a team of budding young players. It just has not worked.

    Horford has primarily been a center throughout his career and sliding to power forward alongside a ball dominant center such as Embiid has proved to be troublesome for the duo. Horford’s numbers have been on par with the stats he’s posted over the past three years, dropping 12.0 points, grabbing 6.9 rebounds and dishing 4.1 assists on 30.8 minutes per game but his role on the team is not a clear fit. According to Cleaning the Glass, when Horford mans the PF position for the Sixers they have a league-worst offensive rating of 101.5. To emphasize Horford’s struggles in his new role, the combination of Horford at power forward, Embiid at center and Simmons at point guard has led to a brutal offensive rating of 99.3 in 908 possessions.

    He has always been a decent, capable shooter but this season he has upped his 3-point attempts per game to a career high 4.4, which accounts for 39% of his shots. Not only is he shooting more from distance, since he started shooting at least three attempts from deep in 2015-16 he is posting his lowest 3P% at 33.7%. He has become a spot-up shooter and pick-and-pop player and defenses are not quick to close out on him, allowing the defense ample time to cover the ball handler and help off the ball.

    Philadelphia’s defensive schemes also do not suit Horford’s player type. When put in the pick and roll, coach Brett Brown has his players play drop coverage in order to protect the rim, something Horford has never been great at. He has been especially worse this season, averaging under 1.0 blocks per game for the first time since his rookie season 13 years ago. Lining up alongside Embiid has proven to be counterproductive for both players and has led to some speculation that Horford might be better suited coming off the bench in relief of Embiid even though having an aging big man making $30 million in a reserve role might be a hard pill to swallow for some in Philadelphia.

    Horford’s fantasy value had been on a steady decline until he jumped back into the top-30 in 9-cat leagues last season with Boston. The change of scenery and new situation has not been kind to Horford so far. It was somewhat expected by prospective owners as his ADP was 62 and he currently ranks 64th in 9-cat leagues. The career low FG% at 44% and increase in 3PA without a substantial increase in 3PM are discouraging and are not numbers you would expect an aging big man to be able to increase substantially at this point in his career. Never the most athletic player to begin with, Horford’s numbers has been on a steady decline since 2013. Projecting his value moving forward is tough considering his role on the team is somewhat in limbo but it should be safe to say his best fantasy days are behind us.

    Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson

    Going into the 2018-19 season Philadelphia knew they had the building blocks of the future in Embiid and Simmons. Embiid was coming off his first All-Star season while Simmons had just been named rookie of the year. The roster was set up for these guys to flourish as they were surrounded by shooters in Dario Saric, Robert Covington and Redick. The glaring hole in the roster was still an individual who could create his own shot and make a play without the help of anyone else. Under the impression that the time is now, the front office wasted no time and acquired Jimmy Butler and Justin Patton for Jerryd Bayless, Robert Covington, Dario Saric and a second-round pick a few weeks into the season.

    Although Saric and Covington were perfect prototypes to play alongside Simmons and Embiid, Butler gave them everything they lacked at the swingman spot. Able to create on his own and initiate the offense, Butler, who was coming off his fourth straight All-Star selection, was a perfect fit to play next to Simmons. Even after going 29-14 after the Butler trade, the front office wanted more and believed another offensive threat on the wing could put them over the top.

    They would send Mike Muscala, Wilson Chandler, Landry Shamet, two firsts, and two seconds for Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, and Mike Scott. At the time Harris was considered an All-Star snub, averaging a career best 20.9 points per game on 43.4% from deep. With these additions to an already formidable roster the team cruised into the playoffs before having their hearts ripped out by Kawhi Leonard on the doorstep of the Conference Finals.

    Harris, who bet on himself by turning down an $80 million extension in LA just a year prior, reaped the benefits of that decision when Philadelphia gave him a max five-year, $180 million deal, essentially locking him in as the third wheel behind Simmons and Embiid. The 26-year-old had just missed out on an All-Star appearance and had posted career high scoring and rebound numbers while playing in all 82 games. With this deal Philly had made it clear they were expecting Harris to excel and eventually turn into a star.

    Unfortunately for them, we have not seen any growth out of Harris and he has yet to top any of the numbers he put up a season ago. Fantasy owners saw the writing on the wall and Harris early in the sixth round on average drafted, even though he finished the season in the top-40 of 9-cat formats. He is primarily an offensive statistics threat and does not fill up the box score on the defensive side, only averaging 0.7 steals and 0.5 blocks this season, both numbers are comparable to his career averages. He provides run-of-the-mill value in points, threes and rebounds but does not have any other redeeming qualities to speak of fantasy wise and currently provides fifth-round value for owners.

    Locked in as a third option with two other ball dominant players is not promising for a potential numbers increase and I would anticipate his production to stay in the 18-20 points and 6-8 rebounds per game territory, which are respectable but not quite what you want from a player making over $35 million a year.

    Butler finished the 2019 season in Philadelphia averaging a well rounded 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.9 steals. Although it was his lowest scoring output since 2014-15 he proved to be a vital cog in Philadelphia’s ascension towards the top of the conference, providing veteran leadership and intensity on both sides of the floor. Once the season was complete both Butler and the Sixers did not share a mutual interest in each other. High-intensity personality Butler still wanted to be a top dog and number one option on a team and Philadelphia was skeptical about offering him a five year max contract and instead overpaid for both Harris and Horford. Although Butler was the better fit to go with the players already on the team, a return to the City of Brotherly Love did not seem possible. Philly was able to finagle a sign-and-trade with Miami and receive Josh Richardson in return for Butler.

    Richardson, a two guard who could slide right into an open slot in the starting lineup, was in a similar position to Harris, also coming off a career year with high expectations in regards to future production. After coming onto the fantasy scene in 2017-18 with top-60 production, there was a slight decrease in his rankings in 2018-19 as he dropped to 67th at the season’s end. His volume had increased from year to year but the percentages were in decline. Scoring 16.6 points per game on 41% shooting from the field held him back from making the leap into the top-50 last year. Swiping 1.1 steals and adding 2.2 threes per game were his only saving grace as he does not provide much in terms of the box score.

    Much like Harris, Richardson’s production slipped in his first full season in Philadelphia, but luckily for them he is not signed to an albatross of a contract. In 48 games this year Richardson is scoring 13.8 points, with 3.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. He is averaging 12 FGA per game and only shooting 43% from the field, while only connecting on 1.5 threes per game. Even worse, he’s down to 0.9 steals per game. Injuries and playing time have been issues, but some of it comes down to fit and role. The dip in production has dropped him out of the top-150 in 9-cat and landed him 129th in 8-cat formats after going into the season with an ADP of 68.

    The numbers are pretty dismal on the fantasy front and it is tough to have faith in a volume scorer who is not getting the shots needed to be productive. He is in a difficult position being in Philadelphia’s starting five and could be better suited coming off the bench as an instant spurt of offense like former Sixer Lou Williams. With a roster that could use some reconstruction and Richardson on an extremely team friendly deal it would not be shocking to see him shipped away from Philly at some point, or at the very least given a role change.

    Supporting Cast

    With injuries, inconsistency and roster turnover, Philadelphia has had to look to their thin supporting cast for production at times. Two players who have stepped up to the plate and accepted the challenge are Furkan Korkmaz and Shake Milton.

    Korkmaz, in his third year with Philadelphia, earned consistent playing time for the first time in his career and was a valuable replacement while Philly dealt with injuries at the wing position. He barely cracked the top-250 for the full season rankings but managed to put together a two-week run in early February where he was a consistent points-and-threes stream candidate and provided top-150 value. The highlight of his season came in back-to-back games where he dropped 34 and 31 points. As mainly a scoring threat off the bench, he has shown the ability to get hot and shot just under 40% from deep this season while averaging 16 points per 36 minutes. With more volume and consistency he has the ability to grow into a valuable reserve and could eventually become a fringe top-150 player in fantasy.

    Shake Milton was the surprise performer of the year for Philadelphia. Thrust into a starting role due to injuries, he averaged 9.5 points in 19.1 minutes per game over 32 contests, including 16 starts. He shot 49.8% from the field and added 1.5 threes a game in that small sample size. Over the final two months of the season, when he had a more defined role, Milton averaged 16.5 points and 2.9 threes per game on 57% from the field. Throw in his 3.8 assists and only 1.5 turnovers a game and he ranked 45th in 9-cat over that span. Given the lack of point guard depth in Philadelphia, Milton proved he is a viable bench option but also has the ability to play alongside Simmons and the starting crew going forward.

    Where Do They Go From Here?

    With sky high expectations heading into the season, this year has to be considered a disappointment for Philly. When, or if, the season ever returns they surely have the talent to make a playoff run but there are too many questions surrounding the team to make anyone feel confident they can get to the Eastern Conference Finals, or even the second round again. Rumors are swirling about whether Brett Brown is the right coach to lead this squad and you have to figure he is on the hot seat from here on out.

    On top of the coaching issues, questions of whether or not Embiid and Simmons can coexist will follow this team until further notice, as rumors of a poor relationship between the two constantly add fuel to the fire. With two starters, Horford and Richardson, possibly better suited in bench roles, a shakeup is inevitable. At this point only time will tell if “The Process” eventually pays off.

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