It’s sometime in the late summer of 2019 and we’re preparing for fantasy drafts and one of the most anticipated seasons in some time. We’re thinking about battles for Los Angeles Supremacy, the evolution of a Freak, new mutations of high-profile pairings, and what should be another season of box score bonanzas and viral shenanigans.

Then there’s THUH HEAT.

As of October of 2019, the Miami Heat are your textbook case of NBA mediocrity. Since the Heatles disbanded, they’ve played a barely-above-.500 brand of unwatchable basketball that resulted in two playoff appearances in five years. They remained a slow and stodgy team throughout, only finishing in the top half of the league in Offensive Rating once out of those five years. Outside of saying goodbye to D-Wade twice and the occasions when they wear their Miami Vice alternates, there was very little reason to tune into a Heat game. Those jerseys and their neon pink team logo scream FIRE EMOJI which also happened to be the complete antithesis of their style of play.

Among the breakneck #Wojbombing that was the 2019 offseason, the Heat landed Jimmy Butler in a sign-and-trade that brought in their first star in the post D-Wade era but also cost the team Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside in the deal. Even with those losses of two key Heat rotation players, that’s a tradeoff just about any team would make. That, and Butler was thrilled to finally be on a team that would heartily embrace his batcrap practice routines and competitiveness, all alarm clocks be damned.

Initial season projections had Miami as a 43-win team with the addition of Butler. This would be an improvement from their 39-win non-playoff season from last year but isn’t that much to get overly excited about.

On the fantasy side of things, Butler was being drafted as a late-first round, early second round player, as he should have been. He’s historically been a top-10 per game player albeit with some injury risk but now on a new team where he could be the Alpha. Everyone was salivating over Bam Adebayo’s potential and his ADP only increased as draft season wore on. But how much could he deliver in what would be his first full season as a starter with a degree of uncertainty about how he would handle his new workload?

Beyond that, who else on this team would be able to fill the fantasy void? Names like Justise Winslow, Meyers Leonard and Goran Dragic were uninspiring end-of-bench options with limited upside. Rookies like Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro flashed in the preseason, but they are still rookies after all. In both fantasy and reality, it was shaping up to be another mediocre season, albeit with a new top-dog and a whole lot of other questions surrounding him.

Instead, the Heat ripped off a scorching start that saw themselves at the top of the Southeast Division and 2nd in the Eastern Conference by the end of 2019. Before the season was suspended, Miami had amassed 41 wins and is currently projected to finish the season with 51 wins in a non-pandemic alternate version of NBA reality. On top of that, the Heat currently have five top-100 9-cat players along with others chipping in to form one of the more surprisingly fantasy-friendly teams in the league.

So how did THUH HEAT go from ice cold to the NBA Jam equivalent of HE’S ON FIRE?

Butler

Butler fit the Heat perfectly in the sense that he’s a passionate player with a strong defensive reputation and game to match as well as providing them their first post-Wade alpha in the offense. Butler isn’t known as a fun and gun guard. He’s always been a “half-court and work my way into the interior” type of player. His shot selection resembles that of a power forward and while he’s not completely averse to shooting from deep, only DeMar DeRozan and Ben Simmons are positional contemporaries who take more shots from inside the arc. While Simmons and DeRozan’s two-point FGA rates are well into the 90s, Butler still sits at a robust 82.8% rate of shooting from inside the arc.

That’s not to say Butler won’t let it fly from deep, at least not over the course of his career. But this season he’s taken the fewest 3-pointers per game since his second year in the league when he was playing behind the likes of Rip Hamilton and Kirk Hinrich. That’s probably because his shooting has been abysmal from beyond the arc at only 24.8%. Still his FG% is in line with his career average but that’s a bit of a step back from his past couple of seasons and can be attributed to his struggles from 3-point range.

Beyond that, Jimmy is still Jimmy and that’s all good man. Buckets has been enjoying usage through the sunroof, the most since his final year in Chicago. That comes with all of the expected per-game career-highs including rebounds (6.6) and assists (6.1). Butler remains an elite scorer, free throw shooter, and thief, and half a block a game isn’t the worst thing in the world. Even with the 3-point woes, that all adds up to being a top-15 per game player in 9-cat leagues.

Despite the usual nicks and scratches that result in the missed games here and there, Butler owners got exactly what they were hoping for when they made him an early round selection. It’ll be hard to envision him being anything else with the Heat enjoying the success they’ve had with Jimmy Buckets as their star.

Wham Bam

The Heat’s surprise start doesn’t just happen with Butler alone. After all, most projections only peg a few incremental wins because they weren’t sure which of the beef stew ingredients that is the Heat roster would become the potatoes to Butler’s meat. We all figured Bam Adebayo wouldn’t just be there to be small fries; we just didn’t expect to get an entire meal out of him.

Sometimes just knowing that minutes are there is all it takes to push a potential sleeper into a full-blown shot of draft adrenaline. We fantasy players start to salivate when a player with unique offensive and defensive potential is the one who will be using those minutes. So often times the hype train picks up so much steam that we can get concerned that the draft cost could be too high without having a body of work to base it on. Just as much is there can be potential ceilings, the fall to the floor could be rough after all.

So up and up Bam’s ADP went from the 70s, to the 60s, 50s, and in drafts where I had seen him go into the 30s. There couldn’t possibly be any way someone could exceed that kind of hype, right? We’ve been burned plenty of times before, right? Were we nuts to put Bam on our Hoop-Ball 6 despite the rising cost to draft him?

The formula for a Bam breakout had to go well beyond just him seeing the court in increasing frequency. It also took some deft coaching from one of the best in the league in Erik Spoelstra. It was very simple in retrospect. Spo got Bam out onto the elbow and used him like Denver does Nikola Jokic. From there it was a choose your own adventure for the Heat. They could…

1. Set up a pick and roll using any one of Miami’s capable ball handlers and shooters
2. Get Bam the ball for a handoff or his leverage his ability to use his space and wingspan to create looks for open shooters
3. Let Bam use his athleticism and get to the basket

By allowing Bam to receive the 3^rd most touches in the league around the elbow, the Heat were able to open up their offense in a way that didn’t exist with previous big men. That meant giving Bam the opportunity to make decisions with the ball, which led to him posting the 2^nd highest assists per game among all centers behind, you guessed it, the Joker. For us fantasy folks, that’s like sifting through Miami Beach with a metal detector, and here comes Bam gifting us a Rolex in the sand.

That Spo trusted Bam with such a valuable role is why teams like Denver and Miami don’t need to run the floor like gazelles to keep scoring up. Having big men with the ability to stretch and see the floor is why Denver and Miami’s offensive seasons so far look nigh identical.

I’m sure it won’t shock you that these two slow moving, solid shooting, with savvy big-man centric teams were 41-24 and 43-22, respectively.

Oh, did we mention that Bam can play a little D too? Adebayo averaged 2.5 Stocks per game and was only one of five center-eligible players to average at least one steal and one block per game. Put it all together and Bam’s fantasy season after all the hype and coaching up was basically a Vince McMahon meme.

Full time starter minutes:

Gobs of traditional big man stats:

DEFENSIVE STATS GALORE:

2^ND BEST PASSING CENTER IN THE LEAGUE AND 12^TH IN TOTAL 9-CAT VALUE:

So yeah, he was so worth it. There were triple-doubles, fully stuffed stat sheets and his lone Achilles heel, his free throw shooting, improved as the season progressed. If you were fortunate enough to grab Bam you undoubtedly got one of the best stories and steals of the fantasy season. The way the Heat have deployed Bam and the fact that he’s still only 22 years old means that he’s likely going to remain an upper echelon fantasy option for years to come.

The Best Things Come in 3s

So, we have a couple stars and an offensive setup for sustained NBA success but the Heat didn’t get off to the races playing 2-on-5. Bam can’t rack up assists without other players putting the ball in the basket after all.

It just so happened that with Butler becoming even more of a slasher and Bam setting up the offense from the elbow, the Heat became one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league. The Heat took the 10^th most 3PA per game with the best 3P% in the league. It’s remarkable what a few percentage points and made shots can do to the fortunes of a team. Take for example the Nets, who were 7^th in the league in 3PA per game and 26^th in 3P%. Both teams were in the top half of the league in Defensive Rating and neither were great at mitigating turnovers so the gulf of a whopping 4.3% in made 3-pointers is why the Heat were in cruise control and the Nets couldn’t get out of neutral.

The Nets’ emergence as a once-dominant 3-point shooting team came because they were able to unleash a 3-point King in a previously unknown Joe Harris. Miami happened to uncover some of their own royal blood in Duncan Robinson.

Robinson could thank Justise Winslow’s back for ruining his own breakout season but once D-Rob showed that he could more than fill Winslow’s shoes, the Heat sent Winslow and his unceasing back pain packing to Memphis. Robinson, an undrafted and unlikely NBA player, crafted his one biggest skill set which is lighting it up from deep. We’ve noted plenty of times that if all you do is shoot 3-pointers with enough volume and at strong percentages, you can crack the top-100 on that alone. Robinson took that to its logical extremes.

No NBA player had a higher percentage of his shots come from 3-point territory. Again, it’s one thing to take them and another to make them, but Robinson shot 44.8% from deep which placed him 4^th in the league. Robinson turned himself into a player who is elite with the catch-and-shoot and off the handoff. I’ll let you take a wild guess who the majority of his passes and assists came from.

With enough minutes and D-Rob’s breakout season from deep, he provided 13.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, and 0.5 SPG, and 0.2 BPG. None of those things are particularly interesting until you couple them with having a 3-point value behind only James Harden and Buddy Hield and an elite FT%. Then you have an easy top-100 per game player. Again, we’ve seen enough of Harris, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver in our lives to know that if you have that elite 3-point trait then there will always be room for you on our teams.

Still, Robinson wasn’t the only Heat player to enjoy the freedom to let it fly.

Kelly Olynyk has always been a favorite of ours because of his abilities to be a great shooting big guy. Bam’s breakout put a cap on his minutes but because he could shoot to the tune of a career high 43.2% from deep, he was still able to hover around the top-150 and be a streaming option from time to time. Olynyk’s all-around game, great shooting, and ability to provide some boards and steals in limited minutes made him a per-36 darling on the season and reminded us why we’ve always been teased by his skill set.

Meyers Leonard split time with Olynyk but has proven to be a negative on the defensive side and was an awful free throw shooter this season. Nothing else in his game would merit a waiver consideration with the exception that he could somehow shoot 42.9% on 2.4 3PA per game. It’s not nearly enough volume to merit a regular roster spot on fantasy teams, but there’s always something we can make note of if we ever need a desperation heave.

Jae Crowder came over from the Memphis Grizzlies and some of the magic fairy dust that was gifted to the Miami shooters rubbed off on him as well. Crowder shot 39.3% from 3-point range during his 13 games in South Beach as opposed to his ghastly 29.3% while in a Grizzlies uni. Crowder does plenty in the form of 3-ing and D-ing (6.1 RPG and 1.2 SPG); enough to have been a top-100 player so far this season. But Crowder is the kind of player far more suited for roto leagues than head-to-head. Crowder’s totals are worth the wait but if your week depends on him in H2H, you’re playing Russian Roulette with your entry fees.

At age 34, Goran Dragic is about to enter the High Mileage phase of his career. He’s been fool’s gold for a couple of years now given that he’ll still play minutes in the upper 20s, can still score and dish out some assists. His defense is non-existent and his percentages are both negative values even among guards. But, Dragic was able to stroke it from deep. His 37.7% on the season remained above a very respectable career rate of 36.4%. His days of being a middle-round fantasy selection are long gone, but he can be useful as a bench option for teams in need of scoring and, of course, 3-pointers.

One exception to this rule is Derrick Jones Jr. and we’d be remiss not to talk about his contributions despite not being much of a 3-point shooter. At a putrid 27.6% for his career, only slightly better than his brutal 27.0% this season, he’s better off letting his hops and rim rattling do the talking, as he did during All-Star Weekend. What made DJJ appealing for fantasy was his block and steal rates. The hope was that in his 4^th season that he could emerge from a logjam and add to his repertoire on both ends.

Sure enough, he averaged 1.8 Stocks in under 25 MPG and started becoming more involved on the offensive end when Tyler Herro went down with an ankle injury later in the season. Jones’ popcorn stats weren’t much to look at but when his per game Stocks went to 2.0 and he started shooting the ball at a near 60% clip, he put together a top-75 stretch over his last 11 games. That was good enough to vault him into the top-150 on the season and remind us of what could be when someone already has the chops on D but just needs some more opportunities to get the ball in the basket.

Rooks

A healthy barrage of threes boosted this team into playoff contention but a couple of new faces are what may make this team a long-term threat in the Eastern Conference along with an established Alpha, a swiss army knife in the middle, and a deep cast of 3-point shooting talent.

Kendrick Nunn had legal issues while in college, was forced to transfer and went undrafted in 2018. He played for the Santa Cruz Warriors in the G-League and was signed by the Heat in April of 2019. Nunn wasn’t on anyone’s radars going into the season, but after a monster Summer League and preseason that featured a 40-point outburst, people began to notice. When Jimmy Butler missed the start of the season due to the birth of his daughter, Nunn was thrust into an immediate and prominent role on the team.

Nunn wasn’t at all gun shy in the moment. Through the first 16 games of his NBA career he joined the 3-point onslaught to the tune of 16.9 PPG on 48.9 FG% and 2.3 3PG. The scoring and great percentages, along with 1.3 SPG during that time frame, launched him into the top-75, making Nunn a very early candidate for Pickup of the Year.

Nunn hit a cold streak in the middle of the season and that wasn’t at all unsurprising for a first-year player with an unusually high usage and shooting volume. But for anyone who gave up on Kendrick thinking that his early season binge was just his one-hit Good Kid, M.A,A.D City moment, he went and made all his detractors by dropping DAMN over his last 10 games. Nunn built on his early season success by turning in 17.1 PPG on 48.5 FG% and 3.0 3PG for a top-75 close to this point. Nunn is currently a top-100 player on the season and given his 3-point chops is likely to be a continued scoring threat for the Heat for some time. He could grow even further with Dragic at the end of his Heat contract.

As if we haven’t described enough shooters on this Heat team, they used their first-round selection on Tyler Herro, a sweet shooting one-and-done guard out of Kentucky. Like Nunn, Herro was a Summer League star and his fearless stroke got immediate attention. Herro didn’t didn’t get off to quite as hot of a start as Nunn, but he quickly established that he could fill the bucket at will with a 29-point, 29-minute monster in only his fourth career game.

Herro was largely inconsistent as a rookie and could light it up one night and then disappear the next. Again, this was a 19-year old rookie we’ve been talking about, so that isn’t uncommon. Herro proved that his shot is legitimate, making 39.1% of his 3-pointers in his first season, and is an excellent 83.5% at the line. However, he struggles around the basket and couldn’t bring his FGP above 41.4% despite the very good outside shooting.

The inconsistency and an ankle injury that sidelined him for most of February is why he fell outside the top-200 on the season in 9-cat leagues. But as we discussed with elite 3-point shooters with great percentages, if you can find that consistency then there will be more than enough opportunity to warrant consideration on our teams. While Herro is living his best quarantine life right now, he’ll be just as much of an asset to the Heat on the court, where he should play a prominent role as another deep threat that Bam and Buckets can facilitate for.

Moving Forward

The Heat were one of the more pleasant surprises of the season in both real and fantasy hoops and it’s a question of whether or not they can sustain their hot shooting if they want to make a deep run into the playoffs for themselves and their fantasy owners. Stats suggest that their shooting only got better as the season progress, but they’ll need to shore up their defense if they want to be considered real threats.

The shooting is what we are most interested in and as long as the Heat continue to work through Bam the way they have, then they should be able to keep seeing open looks. The question is, will they keep knocking them down? Because of how efficiently they have been, they’ve delivered plenty of fantasy goodies to go around. If that stops then they’re going to be a pain to manage outside of Jimmy and Bam.

But that might not be the worst thing in the world. The league has been rebuilt with every team revolving around a Big Two and now the Heat have theirs. When you have a couple of top-20 players that are the focus of defenses on a nightly basis, that’s bound to open up opportunity for others. It’s a good thing that the Heat have a number of players who can fill it up from deep and have already proven that they can co-exist with Butler.

Robinson might not always be this fire from 3. Nunn might not be able to maintain his percentages either. Herro could remain an inconsistent contributor. Olynyk may still get lost in the shuffle, if he gets back into the rotation first. But there’s enough here to pick up the slack for one another in the statistical department and you know crazy Jimmy won’t let this team get down on themselves as a unit.

Miami has followed the Denver formula for success and given that Denver has been in the thick of the Western race for the past couple of seasons, it’s certainly possible the Heat will do the same out in the East. In a season full of changes, we’ll see if THUH HEAT can maintain their transition from lukewarm to keeping that 🔥 🔥 🔥 going strong.