Evaluating prospects and projecting them for fantasy purposes can be a complicated process. There are hundreds of potential NBA newcomers every year and it’s impossible to become deeply familiar with every single one. There’s a temptation to just look at a player’s box scores and extrapolate out, give or take some wiggle room as the competition gets harder. That’s fine to establish a baseline for what a player is capable of contributing, but those numbers can be misleading, especially at larger schools. Roles and playing time aren’t necessarily a meritocracy in the NCAA ranks, as sometimes a player won’t fit a scheme or will need to spend more time on the bench to allow an upperclassman to play more. That’s especially true for power programs, where stacked rosters might prevent a young player’s true talent from shining on the court.

College numbers can be inflated when a player is a star on a team that doesn’t have other top dogs, or when they’re being handed 35 minutes per contest. We’re going to look at some guys whose numbers might not pop right off the page, but who showed enough per-minute promise to be interesting. Scottie Barnes and Isaiah Jackson made the list two years ago and we featured Walker Kessler and Tari Eason last year, so hopefully we can find similar success stories.

We surveyed the entire SportsEthos draft team to give you more profiles than ever before.

Dereck Lively, C, Duke

Stats: 20.6 mpg, 5.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.4 blocks, 0.1 3-pointers on .658 / .154 / .600 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)

Centers will always pop when you look at per-minute stats in small samples, especially given the value that blocks have in fantasy formats. Lively is more than a statistical anomaly, however, as he’s a 7’1″ center with a 7’8″ wingspan who has shown excellent mobility for his size. Although Lively may never become a true switch-everything menace on defense, he moves around well for a man of his frame and has already put up tons of great tape in drop coverage schemes. Lively can be expected to deliver strong rim protection at minimum and there’s more to his offensive toolkit than he showed at Duke, too. There’s flashes of improved shooting and playmaking that a development staff can work to coax out, even if Lively is going to spend most of his time converting lobs and putbacks.

It’s fair to question whether Lively can become enough of an offensive contributor to be a locked-in starter in the NBA regardless of fit, but those blocks are a great backbone for fantasy appeal. He will be tested by opponents to see if he can hold up outside of drop coverage, but Lively’s mobility gives him a good chance at carving out regular work even if he wasn’t dominant in college.

— Mike Passador

Nick Smith Jr., G, Arkansas

Stats: 25.8 mpg, 12.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.4 3-pointers on .376 / .338 / .740 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)

Eric Musselman is a recruitment and transfer portal genius, landing Ricky Council IV, Trevon Brazile, Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr., resulting in a Sweet Sixteen appearance. Despite Brazile’s injury, Smith saw his minutes decline in the Tournament, reaching a low in a second-round win against Kansas where Smith had no points in 16 minutes and went to the bench because of his offensive decisions and lack of defense. His team was playing better without him.

Arkansas had five NBA talents (add Jordan Walsh in the mix), and thus no need to force Smith to play through the issues. He was a consensus top-3 high school recruit and would be a higher pick if he had decided just to skip the year, like Shaedon Sharpe. Arkansas had a ton of offensive options and Nick Smith is best suited as a main offensive weapon; add a knee injury that bothered him throughout the year, and you get a lot of talent disguised in an underwhelming freshman season. If you’re a team that needs a scoring punch and are in the mid-to-late first round (Hey Miami, Toronto and Brooklyn!) Smith is looking straight at you.

— Goncalo Teiga

Dariq Whitehead, F, Duke

Stats: 20.6 mpg, 8.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.5 3-pointers on .421 / .429 / .793 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)

Putting Whitehead on this list might be a little bit of a cop out — he surely would’ve played enough to disqualify here if not for major injuries. Whitehead was a true star in high school but suffered a fractured bone in his foot at Duke that resulted in immediate surgery and then a second procedure after the season. Unfortunately, that seemed to impact his bounce and overall ability to live up to the bar he established in high school. He had more turnovers than assists, struggled with his efficiency and failed to excel outside of his lane — but Whitehead did pick a good lane in which to shine, with a sparkling .429 mark from the 3-point line. There will be teams who chalk up his less-than-impressive season to the foot problems and bank on the rest of his game catching up to that elite distance shooting.

Whitehead is one of the youngest players in the class and there are plenty of tools to work with here, but there is definite risk in drafting a player who disappointed mostly across the board outside of one standout area. He has the size, he has the instincts, he has one bankable skill that everyone wants; can Whitehead get the rest of his act together and prove that he deserved more than he got in his lone season at Duke?

— Mike Passador

Chris Livingston, G, Kentucky

Stats: 22.4 mpg, 6.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 0.5 3-pointers on .429 / .305 / .722 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)

Kentucky guards always get a bump from draft evaluators. As a former 5-star, blue chip prospect, the freshman Livingston fell short of expectations during his lone year under John Calipari. Livingston had spent a fair amount of time with the starters by the end of the season but only after spending more time on the bench than on the floor in 2022. Coach Cal needed shooters to open up the floor and Livingston hasn’t shown enough growth there yet. Unfortunately, that spacing-starved Wildcats squad didn’t allow Akron’s newest basketball star to show off his elite physical tools and slashing ability. Whether there are further NBA-level skills to be unearthed remains to be seen, but Livingston passes the eye test with flying colors and gave most of his best performances when the competition level increased down the stretch. A team that could give him extra reps in the G League could find themselves with a real asset down the line but until then, Livingston is likely to stay in a low-minute role.

— Derek Ball

Charles Bediako, C, Alabama

Stats: 20.7 mpg, 6.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.8 blocks, 0. 3-pointers on .659 / .000 / .355 shooting splits (FG / 3P / FT)

The Canadian pivot out of Alabama has shown all the signs of a traditional post anchor across two college seasons. Bediako averaged less than 20 minutes a night in his relatively short college career but returned solid value in those minutes. As with most 7-footers, he’s proven effective around the rim but is more likely to be used as a rebounder and shot deterrent. You may be able to count his points on one hand but Bediako is liable to meet or exceed his scoring totals with rebounds. Further, Bediako was one of the premier defenders in one of the toughest, most physical conferences in the college game and was rewarded with an SEC All-Defensive First Team nod for his efforts. Every NBA team should have space for a backup big that can hold it down in the paint.

— Derek Ball