The PGA Tour returns this week after Taylor Moore had a wonderful 67 on Sunday to vault up to the top of the leaderboard and secure his first career PGA Tour victory. Sunday was an action packed day as the lead rotated between Jordan Spieth and Adam Schenk for most of the day, until Moore charged his way to victory on the back nine with birdies on 15 and 16 while making clutch par saves on 17 and 18. Schenk played steady golf all day and was tied for the lead on the 18^th tee box, but a poor drive (and an unlucky bounce) left his ball right up against a tree forcing a left handed chip out for his second shot, ultimately leading to bogey. Jordan Spieth had a rollercoaster finish to his tournament with a birdie at 15 to tie for the lead. He then followed that up with a water bound tee shot and taking a penalty drop and saving the hole with a miraculous bogey. Spieth then made a tremendous tee shot on the difficult Par-3 17^th and left him six feet for birdie to regain his spot tied atop the leaderboard, but he just missed the putt and bogeyed 18 to finish T3.

For the final time (At Austin Country Club anyway) this week brings us the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play played at Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas. For those unfamiliar, the WGC in the title stands for World Golf Championship, which have all been removed from the PGA Tour schedule over the years except for this match play event.

This week embodies the spirit of March Madness as the top 64 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (excluding those on the LIV Tour) will tee it up in a bracket style match play event. The event is played World Cup style as there are 16 groups of 4 golfers that will play each other round robin style over the first three days of the tournament. Golfers receive one point for winning a match and a half point if the match is tied after 18. The top golfer from each group advances to the final 16 for single elimination matches. If there are ties atop the groupings, golfers will play sudden death holes until a golfer wins a hole and advances to the next round. (Note: round robin results do not matter in a result of a points tie atop a grouping. For example, if Golfer A and Golfer B both finish with 2 points, they will go to a playoff to advance from group stage even if Golfer A beat Golfer B in their group play match).

A link to the tournament bracket can be found here.

DraftKings Tips

This week is a different format for not only the golfers, but for DFS players as well. Here are some basic strategy tips to keep in mind this week:

• Wednesday start this week! Group play runs Wednesday through Friday while the Rounds of 16 and 8 are played on Saturday and finally the final four and finals are played on Sunday.
• Pick players from different quadrants! This may seem like common sense but the amount of edge you pick up on the field by paying attention to this detail is incredible. You need to either have the bracket near by when setting your lineups or set a rule in your optimizer to avoid having certain groups of players in your lineup.
• The optimal strategy is to map out your group of six so that none of your players face each other until the round of 8 and ideally have all four of the golfers that make the final four. While that is unlikely to happen in reality, you want to give yourself the best opportunity of that happening because obviously the more matches your golfers pay, the more points you accumulate.
• Bonus points are out there! See below for the scoring matrix for this week’s key bonus points that are out there like extra points for winning a match with holes remaining, no holes lost in a match, and 3 consecutive holes won.
• Playoff holes do NOT count towards scoring until the Round of 16.

The Course

Austin Country Club plays host to the match play event once again. This is a Pete Dye design that plays at just over 7,100 yards as a par-71, although scoring relative to par is irrelevant this week. Lots of hills and elevation changes cause some awkward lies that the players will have to contend with. There are also over 100 bunkers throughout the course that will demand extra thought on drives and approach shots. The rough is trimmed down this week to about 2” and is not overly penal, but playing from the fairway will be key to hit the small green surfaces.

Speaking of the greens, they will be pretty similar to what we saw the last two weeks at TPC Sawgrass and the Copperhead Course with Bermuda greens. 5,500 square feet in total, these greens are some of the smallest the players will see on tour. Green speeds are around average with a typical rating of 12 on the stimpmeter.

A wide variety of players have done well at this course, as bombing it off the tee is certainly not a prerequisite to success here. Multiple short par-4s and easy to score on par-5s produce a very fair and exciting test of golf that fits perfectly with the match play format.

The Field

Justin Thomas and Justin Rose are the only eligible players not teeing it up this week. All the big names are out for this one as there is another appealing $3.6 million dollars awaiting the last man standing on Sunday. Let’s take a quick look at the past champions of this event when played at Austin Country Club:

2022- Scottie Scheffler defeat Kevin Kisner (4&3)

2021- Billy Horschel defeat Scottie Scheffler (2&1)

2020- *Canceled due to Covid-19

2019- Kevin Kisner defeat Matt Kuchar (3&2)

2018- Bubba Watson defeat Kevin Kisner (7&6)

2017- Dustin Johnson defeat Jon Rahm (1up)

2016- Jason Day defeat Louis Oosthuizen (5&4)

Key Stats

Once again approach play is king this week, but aggressive scoring will be the name of the game. Attacking pins and taking advantage of scoring opportunities when on the green will be prioritized. One big blow-up hole doesn’t matter in this set up, if you lose the hole, you lose the hole and move on to the next one.

Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– A staple stat that translates to any course. It is the stat that has been proven to be heavily correlated with long-term success and past winners of this event. With fast, firm and probable windy conditions, golfers’ second shots this week will need to be dialed in to contend.
2. ARG/Scrambling– Small greens and those notorious Texas winds could result in some missed greens. We want to target golfers who can get up and down to save par and half the hole or even win it.
3. SG: Putting– Looking at the list above of past championship matches, good putters was a common thread. Scheffler is probably the only one on there considered a “bad putter” but he has shown flashes of getting hot with the flat stick (and usually wins when he does).
4. Par 5 Scoring- The three easiest holes on the course are the par-5s. Even if they are not reachable in two by the entire field, they are scorable to all. We want golfers who are aggressive and convert these scoring opportunities into holes won.
5. Birdie or Better % (BOB)- This is more a reflection on how aggressive certain golfers are. In regular stroke play, some players play it safe and play for pars and pick their spots. That is not what we want this week. We want golfers who are regularly in attack mode and seek out birdies.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Round 1 Props

Thrive Contest Plays for Wednesday’s Round 1 Action

*Unfortunately, there are no player props this week due to the format of this tournament, but we’ll be back to add to our winnings next week.

Props Record YTD

23-10

DFS Top Tier Play

Patrick Cantlay

Salary: $10,700

Not picking Scottie Scheffler here seems ridiculous and it very may well be. I am not suggesting you fade Scheffler, but am presenting an option I am very comfortable starting with if looking elsewhere to be a little unique. Priced above Rory McIlroy this week, I expect there to be some sticker shock and reduced ownership on Cantlay this week. However, Cantlay checks a lot of the boxes I am looking for this week. First of all, he has an excellent chance of making it out of group play if he plays well going against Brian Harman, KH Lee and Nick Taylor. Cantlay also has a pretty good draw should he advance as the group above him consists of an out-of-form Sam Burns and 3 players he would be a significant favorite over in Seamus Power, Adam Scott, and Adam Hadwin.

Cantlay is also exceptional on Pete Dye courses and generally stays out of trouble while being aggressive. He also ranks second in the field on par-5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Others Considered: Scottie Scheffler ($11,100), Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000)

DFS Mid Tier Play

Tom Hoge

Salary: $7,700

Hoge comes in number one in approach play in the field over the last 24 rounds and is riding some excellent form coming off a 3^rd at THE PLAYERS. While Hoge is obviously not the favorite to get out of his group (that would be Xander Schauffele), the other two members have had up-and-down seasons thus far in Aaron Wise and Cam Davis. Schauffele has never made it out of group play at this event and that is not to say he can’t, but all in all, Hoge has a decent draw with this grouping.

Others Considered: Shane Lowry ($8,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)

DFS Value Play

Adam Svensson

Salary: $6,700

The draw here isn’t great as Svensson needs to get through Jason Day, Collin Morikawa, and Victor Perez to advance. Svensson provides upside though as a guy who has his best performances on shorter courses including his win over the fall at the RSM Classic. Rounding back into form as well with top 25s at the API and THE PLAYERS. Morikawa seems susceptible to an upset right now with how inconsistent his putting has been lately. I expect Kisner to be the most popular play in this range (with good reason), but I don’t think the Canadian Svensson advancing to the knockout stage is out of the realm of possibilities by any means.

Others Considered: Matt Kuchar ($7,100), Denny McCarthy ($6,900)

Outright Betting Picks

Jon Rahm 14-1 (DK)

Patrick Cantlay 21-1 (DK)* Boosted

Tyrrell Hatton 40-1 (DK)

Lineup Builder