Weekly Pitching Guide – May 18 – May 24

  • By Anthony Kates

    Last Updated on May 17, 2026 1:24 am by Anthony Kates | Published: May 17, 2026

    Every Sunday this season, I will share my pitching guide for that week. It will include a table of the projected 2-start starting pitchers and their opponents, with my recommendations on starts and sits, plus my pitching streams for the week.

    WordPress Data Table Plugin

    For my recommended pitching streams, I will only suggest pitchers who are rostered in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues. All starts are projected, but are subject to change due to injury, a team deciding to have a bullpen day, expand to a six-man rotation, etc. Stats are through Sunday morning.

    Monday, May 11

    J.T. Ginn – ATH – @ LAA – 10%

    Ginn has made seven starts this season and has performed fairly well overall. He’s tossed 36.1 innings, with a 30:14 K:BB, allowed four home runs and 11 earned runs, with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. His last two starts were his best of the season: 8IP, 1ER, 1BB, 8K at the Phillies and 6IP, 0ER, 1BB, 3K versus the Cardinals. The Cardinals performance is a bit more impressive when you realize they have a top-10 offense this season and average over 4.5 runs per game. Ginn has limited home runs, by inducing ground balls half the time, limiting quality contact (6.9% barrel rate) and hard hits (35.3% rate). He allows slightly more than league average contact, but has induced plenty of chase, with a 31.9% rate, and a just below league average 9.8% swinging strike rate.

    Over the past month, the Angels have had the worst offense in the league when facing right-handed pitching at home. Their 68 wRC+ is the lowest in the league, they have the second lowest OPS, .594, and the worst strikeout rate, 28.5%, with the 11th worst walk rate, 8.8%, tied with the Twins and Braves. They’ve hit too many ground balls, have the fifth lowest hard hit rate and have the 16th most plate appearances at home against righties over the past month, but they are tied for the second fewest home runs, six, with the Guardians and the Marlins. They’ve scored the fifth fewest runs, 32, and have the second most strikeouts, 100.

    Tuesday, May 12

    Ryne Nelson – ARI – vs SFG – 51%

    Nelson’s season has been a bit up-and-down, but after allowing 14 earned runs over 5.1 innings against the Padres and Blue Jays, he has allowed just five earned runs over his last three starts. In those three starts, at the Cubs and Rangers and at home against the Mets, he tossed 19.1 innings, struck out 19, walked three, allowed three home runs and has a 2.33 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP. His statcast isn’t pretty, with too much quality contact (11.9% barrel), too many hard hits (45.5% rate) and a higher-than-you’d-like average exit velocity: 91 MPH. But he has generated an insane 37.9% chase rate and has limited walks, so outside of three poor starts, he has been able to limit damage. He won’t strike out a ton of batters and his upside is that of like a #3 starter at best, but for our purposes, he makes a fine stream.

    The Giants have had below average offensive production against right-handed pitching on the road over the past month, with a 93 wRC+ (tied with the Cubs), a .689 OPS and a 24.1% strikeout rate (sixth worst). They have hit slightly more ground balls than fly balls, have middle of the pack soft hit and hard hit rates and have the second highest infield fly ball rate in the league. They’ve hit 10 home runs and scored 36 runs over 349 plate appearances, with two stolen bases.

    Wednesday, May 13

    Michael McGreevy – STL – vs PIT – 47%

    McGreevy has made nine starts this season and has allowed one or no runs in six of them. Since he allowed four runs in a start at the Marlins on April 20, he has made four starts, all quality starts: 24 innings, 21 strikeouts, six walks, two home runs, two earned runs, 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP. He’s minimized quality contact, though he is allowed more hard hits than you’d like to see, but because he is inducing more ground balls than fly balls, he’s been able to keep the ball in the park. Over these four starts he has a chase rate of 33.6% and a swinging strike rate of 11.3% and a contact rate of 75.9%, all of which are better than his season long numbers (30.6%, 8% and 82.1%, respectively). Three of the four teams he dominated have a top-10 offense (Dodgers, Mariners, Athletics) and the other is a very underachieving Padres squad, so it’s not like he was facing the absolute dregs of the league. Cardinals magic is working this season (see: Walker, Jordan; Church, Nathan; May, Dustin) and McGreevy is the latest result.

    The Pirates have performed slightly below average against righties on the road over the past month, with a 96 wRC+, .680 OPS and a 23% strikeout rate. They have the ninth lowest hard hit rate, a middle of the pack soft hit rate, more ground balls than fly balls and a below average HR/FB. They have the seventh fewest plate appearances against right-handers on the road over the past month, with the tied for third fewest home runs (seven, tied with three other teams) and the 17th most runs (38, tied with the Guardians). They have ground into six double plays, 12th most and tied with the Rangers, Twins and Cardinals.


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    May 17, 2026, 1:18 am