Buffalo Bills 26-27 NFL Season Preview

​

  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on May 22, 2026 3:36 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: May 22, 2026

     

    Hope springs eternal, but that rings even more true for the Buffalo Bills who seem to get the rug pulled out from them every season.  There remains a lot to like about this team as they remain the most consistent and trustworthy regular season team we have seen in a long time.  They have scored at least 450 points in six straight seasons and perennial fantasy superstar Josh Allen has been the QB 1/2 in all six.  That sort of consistency in this day and age is unprecedented and his ability to stay healthy and rack up rushing TDs is second to none.  For the last few seasons, it’s been get one of the big three QBs (Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson) or just shotgun the position and get someone late in your draft.  In ode to Highlander, “There can only be one”.  Allen stands alone on the top of QB mountain and while it’s not a lock he will repeat as QB 1/2, it’s as close as it gets.  As great as Allen is, the Bills aren’t exactly a one-man band and it’s really the duo of Allen and James Cook that propels the offense forward, along with a top-five o-line.  The Bills ranked first with 32.2 run-per-game, second with a 51/49 run/pass split, first in FPPG at QB and 4th at RB despite running an old-school bell cow.  Cook had 309 of the 419 RB rushes and while the Bills have two solid backups, they aren’t interested in a timeshare.  Cook finished as the RB6, and has b2b top-10 seasons along with 28 total rushing TDs.  There is no discount this season after proving the season before wasn’t a fluke and while it can be frustrating having Allen steal TDs, this is an offense that lives on the ground, will routinely be ahead in the second half and is the gold standard for fantasy football.

    The biggest question for the BUF offense is when will they pivot back to a pass-heavy, air-it-out attack.  The answer is likely not anytime soon as Allen saw his passing yards and passing TDs regress for the second season in a row as the Bills have smartly pivoted to a ball-control, clock-killing recipe that doesn’t turn it over and is built to win in the playoffs.  So what does that mean for newly acquired DJ Moore, who seemed like the odd man out in CHI.  Moore finally gives the Bills a “true” WR1 and was the WR6 only three seasons ago with Justin Fields.  That is the only top-15 finish of Moore’s career, so was it a fluke or just universe aligning for one perfect season.  Moore is 29, still in his prime, but if you drafted him last season, it would fair to be gun-shy.  It took Moore until Week 9 to finish inside the top-25 and even after that he was inside the top-10 or outside the top-60.  That kind of volatility is great for Best Ball, but not for redraft leagues.

    It’s always a valuable tool to see where a team throws the ball because it’s usually due to a scheme/offensive identity and is something that can be trusted year-over-year.  The Bills like to spread it around and are top-15 targeting RBs and TEs.  That means WRs take a backseat as they were only targeted 56% of the time (23rd in the NFL).  Some of that can be chalked up to talent as the Bills biggest weakness last season was the WR position, but why would we want to invest a mid-round pick on a WR on a run-first offense that doesn’t target WRs.   Moore and his counterpart Khalil Shakir are both going around WR34/35 and they are a classic representation of floor/ceiling.  Shakir is the definition of dependable and will give you about six grabs for 50 yards like clockwork.  Moore as I’ve shown is much more volatile.  Which to draft simply comes down to preference, but ideally you look elsewhere for WR production.

     

    Player most likely to beat ADP: Dalton Kincaid (ADP 98, TE9)

    The Bills are tough to find a diamond in the rough because we know what they want to do and that is baked into the draft board.  The Bills do love targeting their TEs in the red zone and the BUF TE position scored the third-most fantasy points last season, so it makes sense if Kincaid can finally stay healthy and not share snaps with Dawson Knox.  Between Kincaid/Knox, there were nine passing TDs available and Kincaid scored three times in the first five games and only twice after.  Injuries tell the tale of his career so far, but he will put it all together at least once very soon.

    Player most likely to fade based on ADP: DJ Moore (ADP 66, WR30)

    The upside remains there and the idea that it’s an upgrade from Caleb Williams to Josh Allen looms large.  The CHI offense was built to succeed around Moore and it didn’t so I’d rather trust his career than bank on him re-creating the magic of his WR6 season.  I just don’t see enough targets or red zone opportunities to see him crushing this ADP.

    Late-round Flier that could blow up: Ray Davis (ADp 195, RB64)

    We know Ray Davis is a future stud and in the BUF offense, almost anyone could be.  The problem is James Cook is the paragon of health, but we also know RBs never stay healthy in perpetuity.  Drafting Davis costs you nothing and potentially wins you the league.  There might not be a player with more upside in the entire world of fantasy.


    Want to get access to Nathan’s article? You’ll need to have a SportsEthos NFL FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!
    Premium Access Required

    Come join us at SportsEthos by filling out an application here: https://sportsethos.com/nba-fantasy-news-and-advice/become-a-contributor/

    Follow us on Twitter for our latest pieces, content that will help winning your leagues and much more @EthosFantasyNFL! 

    Follow Jon on Twitter @jonmosales

    May 22, 2026, 3:29 pm