2026 Fantasy Baseball Busts – Outfield

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  • By SportsEthos Staff

    We’ve discussed the pitfalls of getting C, MI and CI wrong.

    But getting your outfield wrong is probably a major no-no if you want to win. In most drafts, outfielder will be littered across the top 150 of picks. If you get those picks wrong and choose too many busts, you will be far behind the 8-ball.

    This means you have to know who to avoid.

    We breakdown multiple players that are likely to not return their preseason investment at the outfield position.

    NOTE: ADP comes from NFBC Draft Champion leagues.

    Larry Vannozzi

    Fernando Tatis Jr. ADP – 14.63 – OF6

    First impressions are hard to shake and I think that’s the problem with Tatis and his 14 ADP as of January 16. With yet another year of him being selected as a late first rounder or beginning second rounder, we’re viewing him as his 2021 self and not the way he has played the past three seasons.

    Fine, I’ll just say it: we still view him through a pre-PED suspension lens.

    That outstanding 2021 season (42 HRs, 25 SBs, .282) is the only year in which he matched or exceeded this year’s 14 ADP. In fact, Tatis finished 29th in the FanGraphs Player Rater last year despite staying healthy all year (a career first) as well as career-bests in strikeout, walk and contact percentages. If any of those factors don’t go as well for him this year, it will be harder for him to match last year’s rank let alone be worth his 14 ADP.

    Oneil Cruz – ADP – 92.34/OF20

    Cruz showed signs of growth back in 2024 but seemed to lose some of those improvements last year. His strikeout rate edged upward to 32K% which is among the highest of all MLB starters.

    His batting average (never a plus for him) fell to a career low of .200 and wasn’t much worse than his expected average. These are scary numbers for any player let alone someone with a January 16 ADP of 89.

    He’ll have to add 50 point to his average to approach this year’s ADP. Possible, but not likely. He was 174 on the FanGraphs Player Rater last year. Even if he is better at the plate this year, 125 looks more likely than being worthy of the 89 ADP.

    Jeff Clowers

    Kyle Stowers – ADP – 128.40/OF26

    Admittedly, my worst fantasy trade last season involved sending away Stowers just before he launched eight of his 25 home runs in just a two-week span so perhaps I’m wishcasting that Stowers doesn’t continue to spite me but even if I grit my teeth and admit that he’s likely to be a solid fantasy contributor in 2026, I don’t think his current ADP reflects the possible downside in his profile.

    Sure, Stowers did post a career-best strikeout rate in his breakout season but that figure still sat at 27.4% after he struck out in 33.8% of plate appearances in his first three years. Throw in a .356 BABIP and I think it’s safe to say that Stowers will struggle to repeat his .288 average, with a .235 average my likely projection.

    There’s no doubting his power gains are real but this type of profile often deals with a fair bit of variability from year-to-year. With where he’s being drafted, I’d avoid the cost.

    Noelvi Marte – ADP – 134.43/OF31

    After slashing .210/.248/.301 en route to being one of the league’s worst hitters in 2024 as he returned from a PED suspension, Marte managed to recover some of his prospect sheen by rebounding to a line around league average with a nice blend of power and speed – including 14 home runs and 10 steals in just over half a season of games.

    Managers were quick to extrapolate that pace out to somewhere in the range of 25-25 if given a full season of at-bats but I think that kind of funny math can easily lead prognosticators awry. And that’s before even looking under the hood at his expected rates and hard-hit metrics because he finished below league average in every single one.

    Though he plays his home games in a very favorable venue for home run power, hitting the 14 he did while running only 36.3% hard-hit rate (21st-percentile) is a glaring red flag. Does he at least make up for it with decent contact metrics? Nope, he actually fares worse in that regard with a 31st-percentile whiff rate, 18th-percentile chase-rate and a 3rd-percentile walk-rate.

    This is a player I could see gracing the waiver wires within a month’s time of Opening Day if he has a sluggish start that causes managers to cut bait. With that kind of downside, would you really feel comfortable spending a top-150 pick on him? I know I wouldn’t – and may not until more than 100 picks later.

    Nathan Baker

    Brenton Doyle –  ADP – 162.70/OF38

    I’m a fan of Doyle‘s potential, and not a fan of the Rockies player development unit, but his home/road splits are too stark to take a player of his caliber inside the top 200 (he’s reportedly on the trade block). While playing half of his games at Coors Field, he’s had plenty of offensive inconsistencies, peaking with a monster 11 HR July in 2024, and bottoming out with multiple sub .450 OPS months in 2025.

    The one consistency about Doyle‘s game have been his home/road splits. In 2024, he OPS’d .899 at home, and .635 on the road; in 2025, that worsened to an .843/.452 split. Any trade to another ballpark could bear catastrophic fantasy consequences for the gold glover, making Steven Kwan a far safer bet; if you want to gamble, go for Dylan Crews.

    Jackson Chourio – ADP – 20.24/OF8


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    January 23, 2026, 8:00 am