Week 1 FNF Fantasy Football Preview : KC @ LAC

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  • By Jon Mosales

    Last Updated on September 5, 2025 1:27 pm by Jon Mosales | Published: September 5, 2025

    FNF – Kansas City @ Los Angeles

    Point spread: Chiefs -3 | Chargers +3

    Moneyline: Chiefs -170 | Chargers +145

    Total: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5

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    Overview:

    While this might seem like an explosive matchup on paper, it’s really a battle of defensive-minded teams.  The Chargers ranked No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense in 2024, allowing 17.7 points per game while KC was 4th.  Both defenses are built around taking away explosives plays and making the offense dink-and-dime down the field.  There may be plenty of fantasy weapons in this game, but recent clashes between the Chiefs and Bolts have been snooze fests, with combined scores of 36, 27, and 25 points in the last three encounters.  While Pat Mahomes is averaging 272.5 passing yards, 2.25 touchdown passes and 0.58 interceptions per game in 12 starts against the Chargers, many of those came against the old Chargers, who couldn’t stop a cold.  This defense will make Mahomes earn everything and there is no reason think KC will change thier offensive philoshy of playing defense on offense and keeping Justin Herbert off the field as long as possible.  The Chargers are going to lean on the running game which should be markedly improved over last season.  With Omarion Hampton leading the charge and Najee Harris spelling him, it should be able to keep the KC defense off-balance despite being top-10 vs. the rush last season.  I expect a run-heavy approach from both teams as KC wants to get Isaiah Pacheco going again after a lost season and points will be hard to come by.  I wouldn’t look to get a ton of fantasy players in this game if I could avoid it.

    Quarterbacks:

    Brian Shade’s projection model has Pat Mahomes as the third ranked QB this week.  I find that crazy, but I have long learned to trust the model.  The Chargers were only 17th vs. the rush last season and played zone more than most teams in the league.  Mahomes is great vs. any defense, but don’t expect him to take off and run very often if the secondary isn’t turning their backs.  Without Rashee Rice, he will have to feed Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown with a dash of Travis Kelce, who does excel vs. zone.  KC was a top-five team pass-heavy team in terms of rush/pass splits and while that is their identity, I expect closer to 55-45 this game as they will pound Pacheco into the Chargers front line.  I personally wouldn’t start Mahomes in this one, but there is talk of him being locked in after an embarrassing Super Bowl performance. I’m much more of the wait-and-see with Mahomes would rather start a QB with a better matchup.  I would start Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence over him this week.  Justin Herbert has a similarly tough matchup and while KC was only top-20 vs. the pass, they don’t give up big plays and we know LA is going to try and run the ball 30+ times.  Which version of Herbert are we getting? In Weeks 1-6, Herbert was the QB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 163 passing yards per game with 6.5 yards per attempt and 5.2 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 7-18, all of those numbers improved as he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game.  This game has stayaway written all over it and we’ve seen how rusty these teams can be that didn’t go hard in the preseason.

     

    Running Backs:

    Even with a low-scoring game in mind, this does seem like a nice spot to back the running games.  Omarion Hampton is a stud, but will he show-out in the first game of his career on foreign soil vs. an elite rush defense.  I’m wary of backing of rookie RBs in their first game, but you almost have to start Hampton based on where you drafted him.  Najee Harris appears ready to go and should get 10+ carries and a couple receptions in this one.  We don’t what the snap share will look like, but expect close to 50-50 in the first game and be willing to be surprised.  I wouldn’t flex Harris in most matchups, but if he’s a late-scratch, Hampton gets a massive bump and is must-start. KC should be more of a bell-cow situation as we’ve seen Pacheco handle big workloads in the past.  I like his matchup more than Hampton’s, but is KC going to run the ball inside the 10 or let Mahomes do what he does best.  Kareem Hunt will likely handle most of the passing work which isn’t ideal for Pacheco’s fantasy value, but I’m confident in him getting enough touches to make an impact.  We also don’t what the field will be like which could impact the running game.

     

    Wide Receivers: 

    We’ve got two sophomore WRs looking to build on last season’s success.  Ladd McConkey was the WR12 and really stood out late in the season as Herbert fully trusted him and went his way on every big down.  Ladd is a must-start player every week, regardless of matchup, but he will have his hands full vs. Trent McDuffie in this one.  TDs will be hard to come by, but expect around five catches and 60 yards as a semi-floor.  I don’t see him busting out in this one but he should be able to get to 10 points.  Quentin Johnston is the other receiving threat and while he proved he wasn’t a bust last season, he still drops way too many balls and is a threat to be overtaken by the rookie Tre Harris at any point this season.  Johnston is barely roster-worthy in 14-team leagues, but he was the WR39.  We will also see if Keenan Allen has anything left in the tank.  He was solid last season, but I have zero faith in all older WRs.  Worthy is the opposite end of that spectrum and is young and a burner.  He really turned it on late in the season and even caught two bombs in the Super Bowl.  I don’t see him getting loose in this one, but he should be heavily involved and see some running plays at some point.  Ideally his matchup isn’t ideal since LA will not allow him to get back the secondary, but with no Rice, he should be the go-to weapon for Mahomes and if he takes the leap, all bets are off.  Hollywood Brown is finally healthy and I’ve always been a big fan of his.  He built some chemistry with Mahomes late in the season and while I wouldn’t start him here, I’m excited to see what he brings to the table.  He could be easily be a WR3 as of next week.

     

    Tight Ends:

    Even though Kelce says he’s in great shape, excels vs. the zone and is as healthy as he will be all season, consider me skeptical.  Once it goes, it’s gone and I’m not sure he’s got any more explosiveness in his legs.  Sure, he will get a handful of grabs for under 10 yards and that’s fine at the TE position, but I didn’t draft him anywhere.  He will be TD dependent after only scoring four a season ago.  I’d almost rather start Will Dissly as he was making some noise last season, but with the addition of Tyler Conklin, expect more of a timeshare at TE.


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    September 5, 2025, 1:26 pm