Buccaneers (+2) vs. Falcons (-2)

O/U 43.5

Important notes for Falcons:

It’s a new-look Falcon team, but it’s the same old problems.  While Kirk Cousins had led the team two game-winning drives and is getting more acclimated each week, the offense continues to sputter and Kyle Pitts looks lost again.  The real problem is the lack of production from potential superstar Bijan Robinson, who only has 59 yards rushing over the last two games.  The Buccs defense hasn’t been as stout vs. the rush this season, ranking 22nd, but you know the game plan will be to get after Robinson and Cousins.  The Atlanta offense hasn’t really gotten going yet, but Drake London has been great around the end zone, but it’s Darnell Mooney who leads the team with 225 yards.  They should be able to move the ball on Tampa, but can they do so without risking TOs as Cousins has as many TDs as he does INTs.

Important notes for the Buccs:

The Buccs are no one-year wonder and Baker Mayfield looks better than he did last year which would seem impossible.  It’s the resurgence of Chris Godwin that has this team humming and it’s the potential of Bucky Irving that has them confident there won’t be a letdown.  The defense is banged up and isn’t as threatening as it once was, but the defense still limited the Eagles to 227 yards and sacked Jalen Hurts six times last week.  The offense has shown they can move the ball at will definitely be in attack mode all game.  Expect plenty of Godwin and Mike Evans and look for Irving to continue to get more carries than Rachaad White as he proves he’s got the goods to be an RB1.

The QBs: Both of these QBs have been around the block and at least one has found the perfect situation.  Mayfield is fourth in the NFL in passer rating (106.9), second in TD passes (eight) and fourth in passing yards (984) and has lit up the Falcons recently.  He’s a must-start QB1 right now with the way he’s moving the ball downfield and sneakily rushing the ball.  The Falcons pass defense has been decent, but it can definitely be exposed over the middle and that’s where Mayfield lives.  Thursday games have a history of being sloppy, but he should be good for over 240 yards and a couple of TDs.  Cousins is still getting his feet wet on his new team and the entire offense was unable to score last week.  That won’t happen again and Cousins should be able to pick apart a Tampa secondary that will be without Antoine Winfield Jr.  Cousins is only worth starting in Superflex leagues, but he will bust out with a big game sooner or later.  The short week makes me think it will be later.

The RBs :  Both these teams have a dual-back attack and while Robinson is far and away the biggest and most explosive name in either backfield, he was out-carried eight-to-seven last week by Tyler Allgeier, who just won’t go away.  Robinson is too good to play this poorly, but a short week is never ideal for RBs.  You obviously still start Robinson, but his ceiling is definitely lower than it was in the summer.  Allgeier is a decent flex option if you have injuries or RBs on bye weeks.  The real drama is in Tampa where White was a PPR monster last season and is being overtaken by Irving.  Irving is a must-stash and near must-start player the rest of the way.  He was dealing with hamstring issues last week and the nature of the game led White to getting more carries.  Irving is a buy-low and White is a sell-off, but everything can flip with an injury.

The WRs : The Atlanta WR core is looking deep and London is a must-start player while Mooney is moving up the board quickly, but he’s more of a flex play in deeper leagues until he is able to find the end zone.  Even Ray-Ray McCloud is on the radar as he was second in team targets last week with seven.  It’s all about TDs though and it’s London who Cousins looks for in the red zone.  The Tampa WR room is banged up as Jalen McMillian and Trey Palmer are out, so that means even more work for Evans and Godwin with Sterling Shepard making a small blip on the radar as a deep, deep league WR3.

The TEs : Kyle Pitts, where have you gone, if you were ever even here.  You have to think the Falcons will look to get him involved after his goose egg last week, but he’s nearly impossible to trust or even start.  Cade Otton though might get some more work with Tampa banged up and he’s almost more trustworthy than Pitts at this point.  Ideally, you aren’t starting either TE this week but with Sam LaPorta on a bye, you might be desperate.

Best Bet : Chris Godwin 68.5 receiving yards over

Lets not break something that isn’t broken.  Godwin has looked great and has been open and targeted heavily every game.  He’s hit this number in all four games and should see plenty of action again.  I will bet this every week until he lets me down.