Steelers(+6) @ Ravens (-6)

O/U 46.5

Important notes for Steelers:

The last time these two teams played it was a low-scoring battle that PIT stole 18-16.  It won’t be the same again as both teams are headed in different directions.  The PIT offense is lost without George Pickens and Russell Wilson is well under 200 passing yards in b2b games.  No one has really stepped up and the RBs tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren figures to struggle vs. an elite rush defense.  It’s hard to imagine how PIT is going to score in this one and BAL at home is a juggernaut.  The problem is that this is the exact spot HC Mike Tomlin loves to be in and has a knack for coming out on the right side as an underdog.

Important notes for the Ravens:

Lamar Jackson cooked the Giants last week for five TDs and looks unstoppable recently.  He’s got b2b games with at least 70 rushing yards and is throwing it as well as ever.  He’s locked in right now.  Derrick Henry is stumbling a bit after a torrid start, but with so many games packed together, the Ravens might be picking their spots.  Expect a heavy volume from Henry, but the question is always will he break a monster.  The pass defense, in particular, has made strides and is now at an average level, jumping to 15th in EPA per drop back since Week 8.  The Ravens are peaking while PIT is crumbling.  It’s a good spot to back any BAL fantasy players.

The QBs: This is a polar opposite matchup as Jackson is the playing QB as well as anyone not named Josh Allen and almost anyone is playing better than Wilson.  Wilson cooked in his first two outings in the black and gold, averaging 271 passing yards per game with four total touchdowns. In his last six starts, he’s only gone Over 206.5 passing yards twice – he threw for 205 against Baltimore in Week 11.  Jackson you are starting and getting pumped about, Wilson is a tough start even in Superflex leagues this week.

The RBs :  Henry hopefully is saving himself for key games because he usually heats up in the winter when everyone else is breaking down.  It’s been the opposite so far because after starting the season by rushing for 84-plus yards in seven of nine games while averaging 116.8 rushing yards per outing, he’s only gone for more than 82 once in his last five games.  It might not be a smash spot, but he should get to 80 yards and a score and if he breaks one, everything is on the table.  Harris has been outside the RB20 in three of his last four and is fresh off the worst game of his season.  He only has one grab in his last two games, so if he’s not running it well, his fantasy value is cooked.  This might be the worst spot of the season for him as BAL is elite vs. the run and likely going to be up early.  I would fade Harris hard in this spot.  I actually like Warren here as he’s the better back and has at least four grabs in four of the last five games.  He’s the pass-catching back and should see increased workload in a negative game-script.  He’s not an RB2, but he’s a decent flex play in PPR leagues with limited upside.

The WRs : I have been wrong about Zay Flowers every week this season.  When I back him he no-shows and I when I avoid him, he goes off. So buyer beware.  Pittsburgh leads the NFL in single-high usage this season (67.4%), so expect more underneath routes and even if Rashod Bateman plays, he won’t be getting downfield.  This could be a TE game, but  maybe Flowers can pick them apart over the middle.  Flowers only had two grabs in the first meeting, so I do like a bounce back game for him.  He’s more of a WR3 this week with upside.  I’m not starting any PIT WRs this week, despite Calvin Austin going five-for-five for 65 yards last week.  He could be settling into his new role as the WR1, but he’s not really good enough.  The Ravens pass defense is significantly worse than the Eagles, so there is some upside if Wilson can connect.  He’s a low floor play with a high ceiling.

The TEs : This could be a TE battle as Pat Freiermuth has been great and has scored in three straight games.  He only has three grabs in each of the last two, but has made them count.  I like him to have a nice game as PIT doesn’t have many options and it’s clear Wilson trusts him.   Baltimore has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.  Mark Andrews is always hit-or-miss and has at least five grabs in three of the last five games.  He’s got three top-10 TEs games in a row and PIT is middle-of-the-pack vs. TEs.  Isaiah Likely has been phased out although he did have eight carries two games ago.  I wouldn’t start him.

Best Bet : Lamar Jackson over 49.5 rushing yards and Jaylen Warren over 20.5 rec yards for +234

I love this bet and Jackson rushing yards is the most fun bet in football.  I haven’t been great predicting his rushing yards this season, but he usually runs vs. PIT and saves his legs for the big games.  As long as Henry doesn’t run wild in this one, I like him to easily cruise over this number.  Since we expect BAL to be up, I expect plenty of check downs to Warren and love this number as well as just his catches.

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