Chargers (+4) @ Chiefs (-4)

O/U 43

Important notes for Chargers:

The Chargers are 8-4 on the season, and come into this SNF matchup having won 5-of-6 games, only falling to the Ravens by a touchdown in that span. These teams faced off earlier this season, where the Chiefs walked away victorious in a 17-10 win over the now-visiting LA Chargers. The Chargers were missing many key players in that game, including both of their starting tackles, rookie Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, not to mention Justin Herbert significantly hindered by an ankle injury. While it’s a whole different story coming into Arrowhead Stadium to beat Kansas City, the Chargers have what it takes to bring the Chiefs to give them their second loss of the season, but will they come through?

Important notes for Chiefs:

The Kansas City Chiefs are 12-1 but are a couple plays away from having a couple of losses added to that column. In their last four matchups, they got their only loss of the season against the Bills, and beat the Broncos, Raiders and Panthers by a combined margin of seven points. They’ve started to backslide on defense as the year wears on, and despite allowing the eighth-fewest yards of offense on the season, they’ve allowed the 10th-most over their last three games, including 277 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-most in the NFL during that span. The Chiefs are kind of on fraud watch, and this will be their strongest test since losing to the Bills in Week 11.

The QBs: Justin Herbert is the QB20 in FPPG this season, and is coming off of his worst weekly finish of the season as the QB30 in Week 13’s win over Atlanta. He and the offense were kept under wraps by an underperforming Falcons defense, but their own defense kept the pressure to a minimum by forcing four interceptions en route to the win. Prior to that performance, though, Herbert finished as a top-12 QB in five-straight weeks, averaging 21.1 FPPG during that stretch, which was the ninth-best mark among QBs. As mentioned previously, the Chiefs’ passing defense has been lackluster recently, allowing 277 passing yards per game over their last three outings, which is the seventh-most in the NFL. Most notably, those quarterbacks they faced in that stretch were Josh Allen, Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell. Justin Herbert should be able to easily make his way back into the top of fantasy QB rankings after this week. 7-of-8 opposing quarterbacks have logged at least 200 passing yards and two total touchdowns vs. the Chiefs, and all eight have had at least 17 fantasy points, giving Herbert a great floor this week. As for Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes is now up to QB13 in FPPG in 2024, at 17.8 per contest. While he’s been disappointing, for sure, Mahomes has at least given managers a comfortable floor with no fewer than 14 points in any game this season. Unfortunately, he only has three QB1 finishes on the season through the first 13 weeks, but at least they’ve all come within his last five outings. Before completely throttling a whimpering Kirk Cousins last week, The Chargers had allowed 5-of-7 opposing quarterbacks to score at least 22 fantasy points, with the only exceptions being Jameis Winston in his second start of the year and a combo of Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for New Orleans. Mahomes should have another chance to add to his total number of QB1 finishes with a big performance against the AFC West rival in Week 13.

The RBs: With J.K. Dobbins ruled out for the foreseeable future, it was Gus Edwards who was the next man up for the Chargers, though he didn’t get much work as a result. He logged a team-high 52% of RB snaps and saw six carries for 32 yards and caught his lone target for one yard. Hassan Haskins actually led the team in RB snap share one week prior, after Dobbins went down, though he fumbled on his first carry in Week 13 and saw rookie Kimani Vidal play over him with 26% of snaps. Vidal Handled four carries for 20 yards. Edwards is the lead back, but averaging just 3.4 YPC on the season in a low-volume role doesn’t make this an enticing spot for Chargers RBs. Especially considering the Chiefs allow just under 57 RB rushing yards per game, the best mark in the league. As for Kansas City, we saw the return of sensational third-year RB Isiah Pacheco last week against the Raiders, where he took seven carries for 44 yards and caught his lone target for five more yards through the air. He split snaps with Kareem Hunt, who took seven carries of his own for just 15 yards, and also caught 2-of-4 targets for zero yards cumulative yards. Clearly, Pacheco would breathe some life into the efficiency of the running game, and should bring about more scoring drives for the team as a whole. Assuming the training wheels are back off for Pacheco, he should have high-RB2 appeal against the Chargers. While Los Angeles allows 119 rushing yards per game on the season, over their last three games they’ve allowed 146 per game, which is the seventh-worst in the NFL during that span. Hunt should likely be phased out to a lesser role, and hopefully doesn’t pose a threat to goal line touches as Pacheco gets going. Meanwhile, Samaje Perine should maintain his role on passing downs, outside of fantasy relevance.

The WRs: As we saw last week, Ladd McConkey is more often than not the favorite target for Justin Herbert, but his durability concerns have been realized on multiple occasions this season. The rookie WR is currently listed as questionable with shoulder and knee injuries, the latter being the more recent ailment, picked up during last week’s game against the Falcons. McConkey finished as the WR14 overall last week, setting career-highs in targets and receptions in the process. He’s finished as a fantasy WR2 in three-straight weeks, logging at least six catches and 82 yards in each contest. Since his Week 8 breakout, he’s the WR10 in FPPG, and should be able to find similar success against a slipping Chiefs defense, as long as he can stay healthy and not limited. Quentin Johnston didn’t quite bounce back from his Week 13 drop-fest, and is nothing more than a touchdown-hopeful dart throw. Consider Joshua Palmer in a similar boat as Johnston this week, though I wouldn’t start either with too much confidence unless McConkey is ruled out ahead of kickoff. The Chiefs allow the eighth-most WR touchdowns on the season, and the 17th-most FPPG to the position. In Kansas City, Deandre Hopkins still isn’t quite seeing as much volume as we’d hope to see from a potentially elite fantasy wideout, running a route on just 65% of Patrick Mahomes’s drop backs in Week 13. Hopkins is the WR22 in FPPG since getting up to speed with the Chiefs in Week 9. Meanwhile, rookie Xavier Worthy is coming off of career-highs in targets and receptions against the Raiders. While it has been trending up in recent weeks, Worthy’s involvement is too inconsistent to trust him any more than as a WR4 with scoring upside. The Chargers allow the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the year.

The TEs: Will Dissly turned in a goose egg on one target last week after building momentum as an intriguing streaming tight end option. Despite the disappointment in a weird win against the Falcons led by a strong defensive effort, Dissly is in a great spot to bounce back against the Chiefs, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2024, and the most receiving yards to them in the NFL. While Travis Kelce has been a fine fantasy tight end for the most part this season, backup Noah Gray has seen an increased role in recent weeks, supplying him with enough opportunities to wind up the TE5 in FPPG over the last three weeks. With a pair of top-five, two-touchdown performances in that span, Gray has proven himself as a valuable and reliable target. Meanwhile, Kelce has at least six catches and 60 yards in 4-of-5 outings, averaging a little over 12 targets per game in that stretch. Kelce still has elite upside in him, while Gray is more of a desperation streamer. The Chargers allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, and Kelce finished as the TE5 overall in their first meeting, catching 7-of-9 targets for 89 yards.

Best Bet: Justin Herbert OVER 230.5 Passing Yards AND 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+386) 

With J.K. Dobbins out, I’m expecting the Chargers to lean even more heavily on their passing game than they have since amping it up after their Week 5 bye. Justin Herbert is among the league’s best quarterbacks when he’s hot, and should have every opportunity to pick apart a crumbling KC defense. Prior to only tossing 179 yards against the Chiefs while limited with an ankle injury early this season, Herbert has recorded at least 236 passing yards in all seven other career starts against the Chiefs, while averaging 273 per game. Also excluding the effort from earlier this season, Herbert’s scored at least two passing touchdowns in 5-of-6 against KC, and will be playing arguably one of the worst versions of that defense he’s seen in his career.

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