The Mosales 200 is my own personal fantasy evaluation metric and the individual ranks aren’t as important as the tiers.  Everyone has their own process and way of sifting through the chaos, but for me after playing fantasy sports for two decades, I’ve realized the most important determining factor for me is always going to be health over talent.  With football, it’s incredibly hard, if not impossible to predict a player’s health, but we can still use past performance, age and positional usage to make the best prediction possible.  For me, it all comes down to ceiling vs. floor and I’ve learned I’m all about a stable floor rather than a sexy ceiling.  I’m no longer trying to build the greatest fantasy team of all time, I simply want to win the last week of the season.

The best real-life way to explain my own thinking is the way I prefer to examine the data.  I don’t care nearly as much about how many fantasy points-per-game a player scored rather than the total points he accrued over the season.  Of course this is an oversimplification, but peaking late is 10 times more important than peaking early.  The perfect embodiment of this philosophy is Amon-Ra St. Brown.  He finished as the WR3 last season and that is probably his ceiling.  The four WRs ahead of him this season can all finish as the WR1, but if you had to bet your life on one of them finishing in the top-five, it might just be Amon-Ra.  He’s only missed one game in his career and his career-high for yards in a game is only 156.  This is perfect.  His ceiling and his floor are close together, the variance is low and the predictability is high.  Ja’Marr Chase might be the best pure receiver in football.  His career-high yards in a game is 266, but he’s missed eight games over the last two seasons, missed the first round of the fantasy playoffs last season and scored a combined 60 yards in the other two playoff games.

So in my world ARSB is more reliable than Chase, but that’s only over the course of one hypothetical season.  I like to play out the upcoming season 100 times and in that world, Chase outperforms ASRB more than 51% of the time.  Let’s say ARSB has a top-five WR season 75% of the time and a top-10 95% of the time.  Chase might be a top-five 70% of the time, but he’s also WR1 in 15% of those models and top-three 45%.  Over a 100 projected seasons, ASRB has a slightly higher floor, which is ideal, but in this case it’s not enough of a determining factor to outweigh the gap in ceiling.  Now, that may seem hypocritical after preaching floor over ceiling, but a lot of the times it comes down to judgement calls and the margins are razor thin.  If you want stability, ARSB is the preferred choice, but it’s impossible to ignore what a healthy Chase and Joe Burrow are capable of and when projecting potential fantasy output, you have to blend reality with healthy dose of optimism.  The higher up in the draft you are, the safer you should play it and as you go further down, then the ceiling becomes more important than the floor.  Everyone has their stress-point that they can handle and for me everyone before Tier six is where I’m more comfortable betting on what I know they can/will do as opposed to what I hope they can.  I hope you enjoy this list and it will continue to evolve as we get closer and closer to the season.

So without further ado, I give you the Mosales 200:

UPDATED THROUGH ITEMS POSTED: September 4th, 10:11 am. ET

Want to get access to the Mosales 200? You’ll need to have a SportsEthos NFL FantasyPass membership. Click here to learn more and sign up!