Chiefs (-1.5) @ Eagles (+1.5)

O/U 48.5

Important notes for Chiefs:

Sights set on their third-straight Super Bowl win, the Chiefs are faced with what is likely their toughest post-season opponent since the start of the Patrick Mahomes dynasty. Kansas City, led by future-Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid, have become a well-oiled machine that steamrolled the NFL for four months with their aim held much higher than just obtaining the league-best record of the regular season. Their offense is in its prime, and the Chiefs’ defense helmed by revered DC Steve Spagnuolo can be one of the most unforgiving matchups in the NFL. This really feels like the NFL’s best on best, and if the Chiefs manage to pull off the historic three-peat in New Orleans, it would be a one-of-a-kind testament to the greatness on grass in Kansas City.

Important notes for Eagles:

If nothing else, this Eagles team is one of the most talented starting-22s in recent NFL history. One of the biggest reasons for their success on the offensive side of the ball is their stacked offensive line. One that has also been a bit banged-up this post-season. Thankfully, though Cam Jurgens is expected to be available for a full workload in the Super Bowl. This team is peaking at the right time and has a real shot at taking down the Chiefs and securing a Championship win. They are oozing with talent and seemingly match up well with a lot of what Kansas City can throw at them. If Jalen Hurts can play decisive football for the Eagles’ offense, and potentially play a turnover-free game, I like their odds at upsetting the reigning champs.

The QBs: We have seen both of these quarterbacks perform at a high level this postseason, but we all know that Patrick Mahomes manning the offense could be the biggest advantage either of these teams have. Expect the Chiefs to put the ball in their star’s hands as often as possible, but he hasn’t faced a test like the Eagles defense yet this post-season. In two playoff games. Mahomes has been nothing short of methodical, and hasn’t been asked to air it out a ton. Over these last two performances, Mahomes had just 25 and 26 pass attempts, after averaging 36 attempts per game throughout the regular season. Last week against Buffalo, in a much closer matchup than the Divisional Round against the Texans, we saw Mahomes make great use of his mobility, scampering for 43 yards and two touchdowns and 11 attempts. As for Jalen Hurts, we saw his numbers inflate a bit in the NFC Championship that saw the Eagles roll over the turnover-heavy Commanders. However, we know that this Eagles team is stacked on the offensive side of the ball, but can Hurts overcome his poorer tendencies to not single-handedly lose the game for Philly? Per Warren Sharp, among 37 qualifying QBs, Jalen Hurts is dead last in success rate and EPA/attempt when pressured this season Hurts also takes the highest sack-rate in the NFL against zone blitzes. Hurts has shown a problem with holding onto the football too long oftentimes this season, allowing 37 sacks when dropping back with the football for more than three seconds. This is despite the Eagles ranking sixth in the NFL in pass-block win rate, possessing one of the best pass-pro trench units in the NFL. The Chiefs get the second-most pressures from DBs and LBs in the NFL, meaning Hurts will surely have his hands full, but it’s a matter of preparation at this point. If Hurts can be a decisive QB, the Eagles have a great chance at holding their own and potentially dethroning the reigning champs. In another angle in support of Hurts, per Underdog’s Hayden Winks, the Eagles QB has played in just 16 indoor games in his career, and he performs significantly better when indoors like he will be on Sunday. He averages 7.5 more passing attempts, 75 more passing yards, and 20 more rushing yards per game when indoors vs. outdoors.

The RBs: Philly, of course, has a major advantage when it comes to running the ball on the ground, and a large part of that is because of the dominance of Saquon Barkley. Barkley is fresh off of winning the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award, following a monstrous debut season with the Eagles that resulted in 2,005 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. That lethality did not wane once the playoffs hit, and in three post-season performances, Barkley has totaled 66 carries for 442 yards and five touchdowns, while also adding 7-of-8 targets for 35 more yards through the air. He was the best RB in the NFL this season, and the ground game in KC, while mostly serviceable, can’t hold a flame to the beaming abilities that Barkley brings to the table. In two playoff games this season, Kareem Hunt has been the biggest contributor for the Chiefs out of the backfield. Hunt has 25 carries for 108 yards and two touchdowns this postseason. Isaiah Pacheco got some early run in both games, but fumbled in the AFC Championship, paving the way for another big workload for Hunt. Hunt has been more reliable for the Chiefs, even months after Pacheco’s return from injury. I expect the veteran to continue to be heavily involved as KC pursues their third consecutive Super Bowl win.

The WRs: The Eagles and their duo of WRs are both better than any wideout on the Chiefs, even though we’ve seen some great strides from rookie Xavier Worthy in the back half of his rookie campaign. While All-Pro Chiefs CB will likely be tasked with matching up against stud WR A.J. Brown out wide, Devonta Smith should see a majority of the slot looks, in what’s shaping up to be a nice spot for him against hard-nosed CB Chamarri Conner. Smith has killed the Chiefs in his young career, netting at least 99 yards in all three of his contests against Kansas City, including Super Bowl LVII. One of these wideouts should definitely be open more often than not, but their performances will likely hinge in large part on the play of QB Jalen Hurts. As for the three-peat seekers, the aforementioned Worthy has been the standout contributor for them over the last few months of the season, including in their recent playoff performances. Hollywood Brown has quickly emerged as the WR2 in the offense, while veteran Deandre Hopkins ran nearly half as many routes as JuJu Smith-Schuster in the AFC Championship game. Still, no Chiefs WR has come close to the consistency that Worthy has developed into, but Brown remains the next-most likely to contribute as he is getting significantly more opportunities. Despite only being available for a handful of games, Brown is seeing a target on 24% of his routes against zone coverage, compared to just 14% for Worthy this post-season. In their last four games, though, the Chiefs have thrown 19 screen passes, 11 of which have gone to Worthy, whereas no other Chief has more than two of those opportunities.

The TEs: One of the drawbacks that the Chiefs have suffered from defensively this season is their inability to cover the tight end position. They allowed significantly more receiving yards per game to the position throughout the season, and part of that could be because of the dialed up LB/DB blitz looks that can free up receivers and force short throws, if not sacks, into thinned out coverage groups near the line of scrimmage. Dallas Goedert has been on a tear since returning from an injury late in the regular season, averaging roughly five catches and 62 yards per game in the post-season. Travis Kelce is a different beast in the post-season, and that’s been no different this season, despite the box score dud last week. Over his last three outings, including the post-season and the clinching game against Pittsburgh, Kelce is averaging 3.2 yards per route run on a 38% target share against zone coverage. With the Chiefs’ pitiful ground game and an unfavorable matchup for their best WR, Kelce could be in line for another trademark post-season takeover.

Best Bet: Devonta Smith OVER 52.5 receiving yards, Xavier Worthy OVER 1.5 Rushing Attempts

Smith has been great against the Chiefs and he should be getting a great matchup in the slot for the Eagles. Goedert may be a safer choice, but Smith has been working in the same area of the field, within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, where the Chiefs are vulnerable, while also adding speed and verticality. With the KC ground game stuck in the mud for the most part, it will likely be inefficient for the the Chiefs to hand it off against this Philly interior run D. I’m expecting Worthy to get involved in the run game via sweeps and screen plays behind the line of scrimmage. Worthy has a tougher matchup with the speedier DBs in Philly, and has had a low target share against zone, which they run primarily. I still expect the Chiefs to get the ball into Worthy’s hands as much as possible as their most dynamic playmaker on offense. I am also comfortable with taking Travis Kelce over 5.5 or 6.5 receptions here as an alternate play for a similar reason.

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