Despite the surging importance of the wide receiver position to fantasy football in the modern era NFL, the running back position is as intriguing as ever ahead of the 2024 season, with values available all over draft boards. However, there are simultaneously names that you want to be sure to avoid when crafting the perfect team to take down the 2024 season. Judging them at their current off-season ADP via Yahoo!, I’ll be detailing some RBs that have the potential to bust or are unlikely to return value where they are currently being taken.

Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs had an underwhelming final season with the Raiders before they opted to let the 2022-23 rushing champion walk in free agency this past off-season. He signed a prove-it deal disguised as a four-year contract with the Green Bay Packers, as the team implemented team options in each year following the 2024 season, meaning they can shed his contract for little-to-nothing after the season if the pairing doesn’t work out for whatever reason. Jacobs joins a Packers’ offense that embraced Jordan Love’s development in the passing game last season. With Aaron Jones out of the fold and in Minnesota, Jacobs is slated to be the Packers’ primary running back for the foreseeable future, but I don’t see that quite equating to the value of most other picks in the early-fourth round, where Jacobs is currently going in off-season fantasy football drafts.

Unfortunately for Jacobs, he will have a few measures going against him while touting the rock for the cheese heads in 2024. According to fantasy points allowed last season, the Packers drew the worst schedule for fantasy RBs in their upcoming season, with only three favorable matchups during the fantasy football regular season. He also joins a Packers offense that despite running the ball a roughly even amount (48%) in the red zone, only scored nine red zone rushing scores as opposed to an astounding 24 passing touchdowns, which was the third-highest mark in the league last season. The team also drafted Marshawn Lloyd in the middle of the third round of this year’s NFL Draft, who has already received high praise and offensive fantasizations from coach Matt LaFleur. Lloyd might not fully usurp Jacobs as the lead back this season, but his presence will be another thorn in the side of Jacobs’s fantasy potential in 2024.

James Cook – Buffalo Bills

While James Cook had a pretty good first season as the Bills’ featured running back, finishing as the RB11 after racking up over 1,500 scrimmage yards and six total touchdowns. However, there are some minor red flags heading into 2024 that could easily equate to Cook being unable to repeat his 2023 success and return value on his ADP as the RB14 going at the end of the fourth round in half-point PPR drafts as of this stage of the off-season. While Cook did have a bit surge in performance after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator mid-season, but he finished the season with a whimper in the fantasy playoffs. In his last three games of 2023, Cook had an average finish of the RB41 in half-point PPR, failing to score at least seven fantasy points in each of those contests. Even in his two NFL playoff performances last season he averaged 83 scrimmage yards and failed to find the end zone in either game.

There are some questions about Cook’s ability truly to reach an elite-level ceiling, as the presence of Josh Allen and how he operates in the red zone can cap his upside. Those last five touchdown-less performances to close last season are a possible reality for Cook to relive in 2024. In 2023, despite having nearly 60 percent of RB rushing attempts for Buffalo, Cook only carried 28 percent of the team’s rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Yes, the receiving upside he benefitted from last year should once again keep his floor somewhat steady, but Cook’s upside is surely capped in this offensive ecosystem.

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