What’s good everybody! I’ll be doing my best to fill in for the great Anthony Quaranta, as he steps away for paternity reasons. Congratulations on the coming arrival of your daughter, Anthony!

Don’t forget to read Larry Vannozzi’s weekly weather report to make sure you’re prepared for last minute alerts about mother nature’s plans in NFL cities across the country. Also, check out Brian Shade’s projection model to help you predict and prepare for this week’s slate of fantasy football!

Picks: Odds are from DraftKings. Picks are for entertainment purposes only and are strictly based on vibes. Check out the Wager Pass for legit gambling talk.

Start Sit Decisions: Start your studs. Otherwise, these are yours and yours alone to make. Hopefully my previews help provide context to assist you in making an informed, matchup winning decision.

Week 6 Positional Rankings: QB’s courtesy of Jacob Dunne, RB’s courtesy of Jon Mosales, WR’s courtesy of Robert Szolosi, TE’s courtesy of Max Silveira, and DST’s courtesy of Brandon Furtado

BYE WEEKS: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England

Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 9:30am EST

Nate’s Lock: D’Andre Swift OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Quarterbacks: (CHI) Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears’ offense are looking sharper and sharper by the week, and Week 5 saw the up-and-coming offense beat up on one of the worst defenses in the league. Namely, the Bears’ shaky offensive line benefitted from taking on the Panthers’ pass rush, that logged the second-lowest pressure rate in the league entering the matchup. With all his weapons at his disposal, Williams has QB1 upside on a weekly basis, and gets the chance to beat up on another bad pass defense in Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow the second-most passing yards, second-most passing touchdowns, and have not drawn an interception through the first five weeks of the season. (JAX) Trevor Lawrence has had a similar start to the season as the rookie, but we know his woes extended to last season before he snapped a nine-game losing streak dating back to 2023. The fourth-year QB would like to build on his 374-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 5, but he’ll likely have a much tougher go against the Bears, who allow the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs on the season. Lawrence is likely a mid-level QB2 in this matchup. No Jaquan Brisker this week could leave a weak spot in the Bears’ vaunted secondary.

The Running Backs: (CHI) D’Andre Swift made a stark 180 after submitting a couple of pitiful performances behind the struggling Bears offense line to start the season. After finishing outside the top-36 each of the first three weeks, he’s finished as a top-three RB in both of his last two performances, even despite ceding some goal line work to Roschon Johnson. The Jaguars have been decent on the ground defensively, but allow the most receptions and receiving yards to RBs this season. One of Swift’s strong suits this season has been his work in the passing game and his elusiveness in open space, so this might be a recipe for a third-straight top RB performance. Johnson is not someone you can truly trust to start as long as Swift is operating as the lead back, but he’s got touchdown upside that makes him a viable dart throw in deep leagues. (JAX) Travis Etienne Jr. is reportedly still the team’s starting RB per coach Doug Pederson, but Tank Bigsby might just be the fantasy RB1 of the offense no matter the pecking order. Etienne has been working through a shoulder injury that has limited him, and he’s just not getting the volume he’s needed to turn in top-notch fantasy performances. Etienne has surpassed 70 rushing yards just once in his last 14 games dating back to last season, whereas Bigsby has eclipsed that mark in all three games he’s played at full strength. At least, the Bears are very susceptible to opposing RBs, allowing the 10th most points to the position, and north of 100 yards and a touchdown per game. Etienne saw a great deal of pass-catching work last week, and that role could help keep him afloat as a fantasy starter.

The Wide Receivers: (CHI) There are a trio of fantasy-relevant WRs in Chicago, who have struggled, but all have their outlooks trending up as Caleb Williams and the offense improves with each passing NFL game under his belt. DJ Moore is the clear WR1 of the offense, seeing at least eight targets in all but one game this season, and getting most of the structured looks of the receivers. Still, Moore finished outside the top-30 WRs as the offense trudged through the first four weeks of the season, but a huge game with over 100 yards and two touchdowns in a revenge game last week helped boost him to a WR4 overall finish in Week 5. Keenan Allen has been uninspiring in his few appearances this season, and it’s a wonder how limiting his age and nagging heel injury have bogged him down. He’s only getting low-value looks like 5-to-10-yard out routes and short crossing stuff that never amounts to much. Rookie ninth overall pick Rome Odunze looked great when Allen missed time this season, but has been virtually unplayable otherwise. It’s a good a matchup as possible for the Bears WRs, as the Jags allow the most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the year. Moore can be started with WR1 upside, while I would avoid playing Keenan Allen until he shows us more. Odunze can be treated as a high-upside flex start in the plus matchup. (JAX) Brian Thomas Jr. has been right up there with the best rookie WRs to take the field this season, currently sitting as the WR7 on the season and finishing inside the top-10 in each of the last two weeks. Christian Kirk had a couple of bad starts early this year, but has found his way above double-digit half-PPR points in three-straight weeks. Trevor Lawrence had his best game in a long time, but it’s unclear if he was taking advantage of a great matchup, or if he’ll actually be able to build on that performance. Gabe Davis is off of fantasy radars after three-straight duds as Kirk re-emerged. While Thomas Jr. feels nearly matchup-proof already, in a tough matchup against a Bears secondary, Kirk could be a coin flip this week and can be swiftly benched if better options are available.

The Tight Ends: (CHI) You can do a lot worse than Cole Kmet at the tight end position, who is the TE6 on the season thanks to a big Week 3 performance. He leads the Bears in average yards of separation, and could be open often against a bad Jaguars pass defense. (JAX) Evan Engram (hamstring) is yet to return to the lineup since injuring his hammy in pre-game warmups in Week 2, and Brenton Strange has been solid in his absence, though not all that head-turning. Believe it or not, Stange has three top-10 performances at the position in four starts without Engram in the lineup. If Engram can make it back to the lineup this week, I would be hesitant to put him in my starting lineup right away, with the risk of limitations and re-injury a real threat when dealing with tweaked hamstrings. If he misses, Strange is about as good as any other starting tight end widely available in leagues.

Matchup: Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens

Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland

Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 1:00pm EST

Nate’s Lock: Justice Hill OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

The Quarterbacks: (BAL) Doesn’t get easier than this to discuss quarterbacks squaring off this week! This year’s QB1 through five weeks of the season, Lamar Jackson has tossed nine touchdowns and thrown just one pick, and also added over 70 rushing yards per game and three more scores on the ground. He gets a great matchup in Washington, who allow the 10th-most fantasy points to the position and invite high-scoring affairs with their electrifying offense. (WAS) Jayden Daniels is having one of the best starts to a rookie campaign ever, and is the QB2 on the season as he’s helped transform the Washington Commanders into a serious franchise. Baltimore allows the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs on the season, and Daniels and Jackson could easily finish as the top two quarterbacks on the week if this game goes nuclear.

The Running Backs: (BAL) We are so lucky we hadn’t seen the last of prime Derrick Henry, who looks as dominant as ever in his age-30 season. He is a freak of nature with the football in his hands, barreling over puny defenders, while still somehow traveling at over 20 MPH. He’s got four-straight top-10 RB performances, including an RB3 and RB1 finish in Weeks 3 and 4 respectively. As long as the Ravens are within striking distance of their opponent, Henry will be a perennial RB1 overall contender, week in and week out. If he’s not, though, it’s likely because the Ravens somehow found themselves in a hole and prefer using Justice Hill, who’s having a career year of his own, as the change of pace and primary pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Hill has played two-thirds of the RB snaps when the team is trailing, and there’s a decent chance that Washington holds their own and then some against Baltimore. Still, Henry’s floor is an RB2 and you’re starting him no question. Washington allows the sixth-most rushing yards to RBs this season, and he should have no trouble making the most of his touches, even if he does wind up ceding snaps to Hill based on game script. The Ravens are 6.5 point favorites, so the odds are indicating that we’re in store for another big Derrick Henry week.(WAS) Brian Robinson Jr. graciously fell into the end zone twice before not playing the second half last week as he continues to nurse a shoulder injury, which has caused him to miss practice twice to start the week. He followed the same pattern last week before getting limited work in Friday and playing capped snaps in Week 5. If he can’t go, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols have both shown the ability to tout the rock to success this season. Austin Ekeler would be a mid-to-late RB2 in a tough matchup if B-Rob doesn’t go, while I would probably veer off from McNichols against the Ravens’ defense that allows the fewest rushing yards per game to RBs this season, at under 50 per game.

The Wide Receivers: (BAL) The primary fantasy-relevant wideout on Baltimore is Zay Flowers, who has been something of a boom-or-bust WR to start the season. He has two top-15 finishes and two weeks outside the top-70 wideouts across the last month of the season, but he has a chance to add the former number in a great matchup in Week 6 against Washington, who gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs on the young season. Rashod Bateman has two touchdowns in three weeks, and finished as the WR17 last week in his best game of the year. He can be a fine dart throw in this matchup and potential shootout. (WAS) Terry McLaurin is a much better fantasy WR now that Jayden Daniels has thrown the ball further and further downfield since the start of the season. McLaurin had 50% of the WR targets in Week 5, and he’s the only fantasy wideout I would consider turning to on the offense, despite the play of Daniels being so excellent. The Ravens are quietly becoming a pass funnel, as they give up the fourth-most points to opposing WRs, a stark contrast to how well they defend the run. 

The Tight Ends: (BAL) Don’t look now, but Mark Andrews just had his best game of the season. Unfortunately, that was only enough to finish as the TE17 last week. Instead, Isaiah Likely and even Charlie Kolar combined for three touchdowns and finished as the TE4 and TE5 on the week, respectively. Likely’s role and upside remains the most appealing option in this clogged and confusing positional group. (WAS) Despite having his worst game of the season, Zach Ertz saw a season-high eight targets last week against the Browns. He remains the starting tight end of the offense, and to be catching balls from Daniels is a leg up on most streaming tight ends. The Ravens have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2024.

Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers

Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin

Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 1:00pm EST

Nate’s Lock: Jayden Reed Anytime TD (+100)

The Quarterbacks: (GB) Jordan Love has access to a volume-based passing ceiling that is now a rarity in the current state of the NFL, with QB play and scoring down across the league to start the year. He’s fourth in FPPG this season, and he gets a great smash spot with the Cardinals in Week 6, who allow the seventh-most points to the position and have logged the sixth-lowest pressure rate through the first five weeks of the season. (ARI) On the other side of the field, Kyler Murray is coming off his best game on the ground this season, and has established himself as one of the best rushing QBs in the league, giving him a great floor for the position. The Packers are a middling defense when it comes to fantasy QBs, as they’ve surrendered roughly 16 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Both QBs should finish inside the top-10 on the week if the game goes accordingly.

The Running Backs: (GB) Josh Jacobs finally cashed in an RB1 finish for the first time this season in Week 5, and it came with his first touchdown in a Packers uniform. The Cardinals were the worst defense against RBs last year, and while they’re a bit improved in that regard, they’re still allowing the eighth-most points to the position on the year. Green Bay is currently 4.5 point favorites, and the game script should allow Jacobs to see a sizeable workload once again. He’s in the back end of the top-12 RBs on the week. Emmanuel Wilson is nothing more than a handcuff at this time, as Jacobs’s snaps increased in each of the last three weeks, minimizing Wilson’s touches.. (ARI) James Conner is another workhorse RB, just on the other side of this game, and he’s turned in some very solid performances as he sits as the RB10 on the year. Outside of getting completely shut down against arguably the best defense vs. fantasy RBs in the Lions in Week 3, Conner has finished as high as the RB6, and also no lower than the RB17. The Packers allow the 15th-most fantasy points to RBs this season, but they’ve allowed three RBs to break the 100-yard mark, and only one opponent failed to have a runner clear 90 rushing yards. Conner will be a high-end RB2 or fringe-RB1 in this matchup.

The Wide Receivers: (GB) Second-year WR Jayden Reed has been lights out this season while working out of the slot with Jordan Love under center. With three games catching passes from Love this season, Reed has averaged 118 yards and a touchdown. He is far and away the best play from this kind of loaded receiving corps, and is a weekly WR1 as long as Jordan Love is full strength. Dontayvion Wicks is the next-most recent Packers WR to find success, finishing as the WR3 overall in Week 4 when Love returned to the lineup off of injury, as he caught two touchdowns. He has had some trouble connecting with Love down the field at times this season, but it’s clear he profiles to be a fantastic NFL WR if he and his QB can get on the same page sooner than later. Romeo Doubs was suspended for last week’s game after being reportedly unhappy with his role in the offense and enabling conduct detrimental to the team. It’s unclear if Doubs will get the squeaky wheel treatment or if he could be left in the background and potentially be shopped ahead of the trade deadline, with a few contending teams in need of WR help. Christian Watson is working his way back from a high ankle sprain, and while he could benefit from Love’s improvement back to full strength, we probably shouldn’t count on him for fantasy points until we see him on the field near-100% himself. The Packers have the fourth-highest implied team total, and the Cardinals surrender the 16th-most fantasy points to wideouts on the year. Reed is a permanent fixture in lineups as it stands, while Wicks would be my choice for an upside pick this week among the remaining trio. (ARI) Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has been leading the way for Cardinals receivers, and he’s the WR19 on the year through the first five weeks. Michael Wilson has been the second read in the passing game with Trey McBride off the field, averaging five caches and 60 yards a game over the last three weeks. Marv and Wilson are the only wideouts I’m considering starting in any capacity out of Arizona, as this game is tied for the fourth-highest implied point total this week, and the Packers have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs thus far.

The Tight Ends: (GB) Tucker Kraft is a top-five tight end rest of season, at worst, with Jordan Love back under center and with Luke Musgrave reportedly heading to injured reserve this week after a massively disappointing start to his own season. He leads all tight ends in YACOE (yards after catch over expected), and is third in the league among pass-catchers with at least 20 catches this season, only trailing Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. The Cardinals are a middling defense against fantasy tight ends, but generally invite good offenses to move the ball with ease. (ARI) Trey McBride was welcomed back with open arms last week after missing Week 4 with a concussion. Falling on a fumbled ball for a touchdown in Week 2 catapulted him to his only top-10 finish at the position this season, but he’ll have a chance to get right in Week 6 against Green Bay. The Packers surrender the ninth-most points to tight ends on the season, and most recently allowed Colby Parkinson to catch 7-of-13 targets 52 yards, while Green Bay has otherwise faced lackluster tight end talent in the last month of the season.

Matchup: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts

Date: Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 1:00pm EST

Nate’s Lock: Ja’Lynn Polk OVER 2.5 Receptions (+120)

The Quarterbacks: (NE) While Drake Maye is not someone I’m looking to start right away by any means, he could provide a spark to the Patriots’ passing game, and could become a relevant fantasy QB sooner than later. He’s best utilized as an add and stash, specifically in superflex leagues. Teams in 1QB leagues desperate for upside should take a flyer on him before it’s too late. (HOU) Losing his alpha target in Nico Collins definitely knocks him down a few pegs, but C.J. Stroud is still among the most talented QBs that are also fantasy-friendly. He’s still got plenty of talent to throw the ball to, and could easily find a way to fantasy success without Collins. It’s a tougher matchup with the Patriots, who allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs , but Stroud is likely not leaving starting lineups for Week 6, despite the factors working against him.

The Running Backs: (HOU) Joe Mixon is reportedly returning to the lineup for the first time since suffering a high-ankle sprain from a hip drop tackle back in Week 3. In his absence Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale emerged as solid options for Houston to turn to out of the backfield. However, it’s clear that this team wants to use Mixon as a workhorse, at least before his ankle injury. If we get reports that Mixon is going to be under any sort of pitch count today, I would avoid starting any RB if you can afford not to, but that likely won’t the case in any league with more than 12 teams. The Patriots are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to the position, and the Texans are 6.5-point favorites against New England, who are debuting rookie QB Drake Maye in Week 6. The Texans may also lean on their running backs a bit more with Nico Collins hitting injured reserve this week. Perhaps, this is enough to put your faith in a returning Joe Mixon right away. (NE) Rhamondre Stevenson was ruled out with a foot injury, just a week after bouncing back as the demoted “backup” RB in Week 5, which saw Stevenson out-touch Antonio Gibson 16-to-7, while the latter back was still super efficient on his minimal touches. Gibson is averaging nearly six yards per carry, and should be in line for a healthy share of opportunities in his first game to truly shine as a Patriot beyond the explosive flashes he’s shown through five weeks. The Texans are a stout run defense, however, as they allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing ball-carries so far this season.

The Wide Receivers: (HOU) Nico Collins was lost to injured reserve due to a significant hamstring injury he endured during a 70-yard touchdown catch to open up Week 5. In his absence, Stefon Diggs is likely to become the top target in the offense, based on what we’ve seen from him and fellow starter, second-year field stretcher Tank Dell. Dell is the only Texans wideout other than Collins with at least 10 air yards per target, and could best fill the void that Collins will leave in the passing game. Elsewhere, Xavier Hutchinson appears to be the next man up for the Texans, playing virtually every snap after Collins went down, though he didn’t do much on the field in his absence. The Patriots’ historically preventative defense makes me thing Diggs will likely wind up the top pass-catching option for Stroud this week, and return a great fantasy outing. (NE) It’s hard to trust any New England pass-catchers right away with Maye taking over the offense, but it can’t be much worse than what Jacoby Brissett had to offer. Demario Douglas feels like the wideout to have in the immediate future, but rookie Ja’Lynn Polk just played a monstrous 100% of snaps in Week 5, while Pop Douglas was the next closest at just 67%. He hasn’t produced much to write home about on the stat sheet quite yet, but the opportunities will surely be there, and if Maye can come out firing, there could finally be some fantasy fireworks in New England’s passing game for the first time in a long time. Houston allows just the 13th-fewest points to opposing WRs in 2024.

The Tight Ends: (NE) Hunter Henry has been extremely disappointing after a monster Week 2 performance, but the potential of the passing game in New England gets a lot more interesting with rookie Drake Maye announced as the starter. I wouldn’t necessarily look his way this week against the Texans, but he’s a name to watch on the waiver wire if Maye hits the ground running. (HOU) Dalton Schultz also has his fantasy potential on the rise with Nico Collins out at least four weeks on injured reserve with a bad hammy. Obviously, Schultz won’t replace the role in the offense that Nico had, but it is roughly 11 targets per game being vacated by Collins on IR. Schultz has only finished inside the top-20 TEs once this season, but if he can get up to seven targets per game going forward after recording at least five in three-straight games, he could be on track for significant streaming appeal.

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