Nobody is perfect when it comes to fantasy football and anyone that claims they are is not to be trusted.  Perfection isn’t the goal, but greatness is within our reach and the only way to be the last team standing is to learn from our mistakes.  We adapt, we evolve and we grow.  Hopefully, we can eventually stop being our own worst enemy and instead be the kind of fantasy GM everyone else in the league fears and respects.

Personally, I’m a massive fan of self-reflection and it’s only by examining the process that we can better anticipate the result.  I am going to do a drive-thru of every team and examine the players and themes I was right on and the ones I swung and missed on.  I will start with the AFC and then hit the NFC.  Every NFL season has it’s own ebbs and flows, but I am confident there are universal truths that can be uncovered and used to create as bulletproof a concept as possible.  Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Arizona Cardinals –  I’m not going to hide in the shadows, I was all-in on Marvin Harrison Jr.  I thought he had everything going for him to have a monster fantasy season.  He had the opportunity, the QB, the pedigree and a potentially bad defense that would lead to plenty of shoot-outs.  Overall, the season stats aren’t terrible and a WR26 finish only looks bad in comparison to his lofty ADP.  To be fair, by the time I was actually drafting my real drafts, MHJ’s ADP had gotten out of control and luckily I didn’t reach for him on any of my teams.

What did we learn?  Rookie WRs are one of the one biggest edges a GM can carve out, but it’s still far from an exact science.  It’s far better to take multiple shots later in the draft than to put all your eggs in the one potential superstar basket.  Neither of the first two WRs taken in the NFL draft finished as top-three fantasy WRs.  Aim small, miss small.

Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons were so desperate not to have another failure to launch season that they overpaid Kirk Cousins and over drafted Michael Penix Jr.  I managed to thread the needle and swore off Kyle Pitts, while being confident that the WR production would bounce-back from being 32nd in FPPG two seasons ago.  The Falcons WRs finished 7th in FPPG and while Drake London outperformed his already soaring ADP, it was Darnell Mooney who swung so many leagues by finishing as the WR38.  I took fliers on Mooney late and it paid off massively as he finally to a competent offense.

What did we learn?  Never underestimate the power of competency to an offense.  Cousins wasn’t great and really fell off a cliff, but after Week 1 he had at least 225 passing yards in 11 of 12 games.  Cousins/Penix targeted WRs at 27% higher rate than the previous season and that made all the difference.  Cousins is washed, but if say Aaron Rodgers goes to a previously fledgling offense, ignore Rodgers and invest in the pass-catchers.

Carolina Panthers – There was a lot of love for Diontae Johnson in the summer and I smartly avoided that, but I also scoffed at Chuba Hubbard and was enamored with the late-season potential of Jonathan Brooks.  Hubbard ended up being the RB13 in FPPG and Brooks was a firecracker that never went off.  The rest of CAR was a dumpster fire beside a late-season Adam Thielen resurgence, but Hubbard was a real diamond in the rough and a coup for anyone who took the flier.

What did we learn? The Hubbard was boom was impossible to predict, but Brooks not being effective coming off a major surgery should have been a no-brainer.  Every season we bank on RBs pulling a Adrian Petersen, but it never happens.  Brooks shouldn’t have played a part in the Hubbard draft process and had we done that, maybe we wouldn’t have let Hubbard slide so far in our drafts.

Chicago Bears – I’m not sure anyone wrote three-headed dragon more times than me this past summer.  Now, while Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze had a combined 69% TS, Odunze was a bust and neither Allen nor Moore were anywhere close to their previous dominant fantasy season.  The Bears smartly funneled the ball to their WRs at top-three rate, but the results were a mixed bag as everything else around the offense faltered.  When Caleb Williams was on, he was great, but he also a four-game stretch with no passing TDs and didn’t have his first TD until Week 3.

What did we learn? As great as Jayden Daniels was, he was the exception, not the rule.  Potential generational talents come in overhyped and underdeveloped and it almost always takes them a season to find their footing.  The Bears next season are worth investing in, but for now we should know better than to get distracted by the new, shiny toy.  Teams with rookie QBs should be avoided as they are too inconsistent week-to-week  and there’s almost never any value on draft day.  Williams was under siege all season and his league-leading 66 sacks felt like a 100 when you watched the Bears.

Dallas Cowboys – It’s hard to be too definitive on the Cowboys since they lost Dak Prescott in Week 9, but injuries happen and the Cowboys are generally an incompetent franchise, so a failed season wasn’t totally out of the cards.  Rico Dowdle was the breakout star with seven top-20 finishes after Week 9 and made the DAL decision to punt on signing FA RB a little more defensible.  We knew Ezekiel Elliot was washed and Dowdle was the best back, but it took half the season for that to play out.

What did we learn? – Patience, young grasshopper.  Just because we “know” something, it doesn’t mean it will play out that the way in reality.  Dowdle’s lack of rushing TDs (2) hurt his fantasy value, but he ended up being a yards beast with over 100 yards in a four out of five game stretch late in the season.  Backfields can take a while to shake out and we have to keep the faith during the down weeks.  The cream almost rises to the top, even in Dallas.

Detroit Lions – The Lions were the fantasy darling of the NFL and if you just got a piece of the offense, you were happy as a pig.  I went full DET in one league and not surprisingly ended up winning, but even then I still didn’t invest enough in the Lions.  Amon- Ra St. Brown is as blue-chip as it gets and I was early on Jameson Williams a season ago and late this time around, but it’s the running game that should have been obvious.  Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery dominated the league, finishing first in in RB FPPG with 34.6 which followed a common theme with DET as they were third a season ago.

What have we learned? Trust the process if it’s backed by an elite o-line.  We know the Lions like to run the ball with a 48/52 run/pass % split and we know they are great at it as they ranked 2nd with 29 TDs and 9th with a 4.7 YPC.  While RBs are flaky, great o-lines are not and one of the few sure things in fantasy was that the Lions were going to be great at running the ball.  Most of the time a team with two elite RBs scares off fantasy GMs as it can be a guessing game, but with DET why not just draft both and reap all the rewards.  It’s not as much a handcuff as it is a bear-hug.  The value on the DET RBs is non-existent now, but there is a duo out there that is ready to make its mark.  I will find them.

Green Bay Packers – This is the one I’ve been dreading as I told anyone who would listen that Josh Jacobs was pre-washed and that MarShawn Lloyd was the sexy rookie RB who would make his mark.  Instead Lloyd was hurt all season and Jacobs “only” scored in every game after the Week 10 bye week.  Jacobs wasn’t the biggest FA RB that switched teams, but that didn’t diminish his impact as he was the heart and soul of the GB offense all season.

What did we learn? Institutional continuity is priceless.  Jacobs went from the Raiders to the Packers, aka a franchise that is almost always terrible to one that always makes the playoffs.  The Packers never sign FAs, so that also could have been a sign as well.  I still contend that Jacobs isn’t a great RB, but he was second in broken tackles (35) and was the only reliable offensive weapon all season.  As important as talent is when drafting RBs, the surrounding talent is even more important and that is something we should remember in the summer.

Los Angeles Rams –  The Rams had an uneven fantasy season due to losing Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp early in the season, but they still made the playoffs and ranked 2nd in WR FPPG.  Whereas some teams like the Lions can attack you from multiple angles, the Rams stick to what they know.  Kyren Williams had an 81% snapshare despite the presence of rookie Blake Corum and Puka Nacua had 24% of the team’s passing yards despite only playing 11 games.

What did we learn? Don’t get cute with LA.  Williams is an old-school bell cow RB despite not being involved in the passing game and Nacua gets targeted at a rate that makes everyone else obsolete.  The Rams were 29th in FPPG by QBs, 30th by TEs and despite Williams being the RB6, RBs were 21st.  Draft Nacua and ignore everyone else.

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings were the fantasy surprise as the season as they ranked 9th in PPG with 25.4 and 10th in QB FPPG.  The least surprising stat was MIN ranking 4th in WR FPPG.  Justin Jefferson proved he’s matchup-proof, QB-proof and anything else proof, but the lesson is that a rising JJ raises all boats.  In a similar fashion to Tyreek Hill, the threat of JJ opened up the entire field and every other weapon was able to thrive.  I was high on Sam Darnold, but didn’t put the rest of the puzzle pieces together.

What did we learn? Jordan Addison proved that just being next to JJ is enough to bump a WR up a level.  Addison finished as the WR18 despite doing essentially nothing for the first three games.  JJ should be taken among the first few picks, but Addison scored one less TD in two less games because anytime the Vikings get in the red zone, JJ gets triple teamed.  Never underestimate JJ and his ability to drag an entire offense with him regardless of who is throwing the ball.

New Orleans Saints – The Saints had a nightmare season and nobody made it to the finish line.  I have been incredibly high on Chris Olave for two seasons and no one could have seen his concussion issues derailing his season.  Alvin Kamara was the only viable fantasy option and he was great until he got shut down in the middle of the fantasy playoffs.  When a team is having a season from hell, it’s probably best to abandon ship and cut your losses.

What did we learn? Running backs on bad teams can see increased volume like Kamara did (finishing 2nd in rec yards), but they are too volatile to trust down the stretch.  If you are going to take the plunge on a veteran RB on a sketchy team and see the signs of a team stumbling into a spiral, it’s imperative to trade them to a more desperate fantasy team willing to take the risk.

New York Giants – Many experts like me stayed away from Malik Nabers because we had no faith in Daniel Jones and we ended up being half-right.  The Giants continue to be a tragic franchise, but they did target WRs at the second highest frequency (71%) despite having a revolving door at QB.  They are one of the few teams who could do a 180 if they find not even the right QB, but a competent one.  Nabers saw 170 targets, but only 69.4 were catchable (ARSB was at 84.4%) and if the quantity holds, but the quality improves, everything is on the table.

What did we learn?  There isn’t going to be much of a discount on Nabers next season, but in a similar fashion to Drake London, the upgrade from terrible to decent makes a world of difference for a superstar WR.  If the Giants draft a rookie QB, we’ve seen that’s not ideal, but if they sign a veteran gunslinger, Nabers is going to be a must-draft player no matter what the cost or ADP.

Philadelphia Eagles –  We knew PHI had a great o-line and we knew Saquon Barkley was a great RB, but somehow we didn’t know what it would mean if they combined forces because if we did, Barkley would have gone first overall.  While Barkley and the run game thrived, the passing game took a hit and with a 56/44 run/pass split resulting in the Eagles finishing last in the league with only 29 passes per-game.

What did we learn – We already learned the value of an elite RB going to an elite system, but what about the cascading effects which are reinforced with an elite defense.  The PHI WRs who consist of one of the best duos in the league, finished 23rd in FPPG and since we don’t expect PHI to break something that isn’t broken, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are both players to fade next season.

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers season was among the most disastrous in recent memory due to the lackluster production combined with the overwhelming talent on offense.  The signs were there with Christian McCaffrey being hurt in the preseason and Brandon Aiyuk holding out, but I chose to ignore them.  They scored six points less per-game and the only reliable constants were Brock Purdy and George Kittle.  Purdy didn’t have the same explosive season that he had two seasons ago when he finished as the QB6, but he more than doubled his rush yards and led the team in rushing TDs.

What did we learn? Brock Purdy is the real deal and like Baker Mayfield, he is criminally underrated for fantasy.  Mayfield finished as the QB4 and that is where Purdy could be headed next season.  If you don’t get any of the top-three QBs, then it’s imperative to wait and Purdy might be a league-swinger next season.  His ADP will still be outside the top-10 and possible even 15, but don’t be fooled, with Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall at his disposal along with the stalwarts, the 49er offense will be as diverse and dangerous as anytime in recent history.  Purdy will be my QB in every league next season.

Seattle Seahawks – I was big on Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a rookie and learned from that failure to avoid Rome Odunze this season, but I never sold any of my JSN stock.  We are getting better at recognizing the combination of talent and opportunity and JSN was at the perfect crossroads of that.  The real lingering question is what do we do about DK Metcalf.

What did we learn?  For JSN truthers, we knew he was inevitable, so the best lesson might be talent eventually wins out and that might mean Rome Odunze is the WR to target next season.  The Metcalf falloff was precipitous, but did JSN truly takeover or was Metcalf just banged up in the second half of the season.  SEA passed at a top-five rate this past season, so the offense can support two elite WRs.  There will be a boatload of value banking that DK is closer to the WR15 of two seasons ago than WR34 this past season and we have learned with JJ that there is plenty of value in buying the dip.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccs refuse to go away and were top-five in FPPG from the QB, RB and WR position.  I didn’t end up with any Buccs this season, but Chris Godwin and Rachaad White were the only players I actively avoided.  The offense despite losing Mike Evans for a stretch and Chris Godwin for the season kept on humming and Bucky Irving deserves most of the credit.  Baker Mayfield has b2b top-10 QB seasons and his ADP will finally reflect his fantasy value.  There won’t be much room for Mayfield and Irving to exceed their ADP.

What did we learn?  The obvious answer is that when a plodding RB who only succeeds due to volume is being threatened by a young RB that everyone raves about, read the room.  There was also hype about Blake Corum and if we’re being honest, there is no way to predict which backup RBs will end up breaking through by the fantasy playoffs.  Chris Godwin will back next season, but when and what will he look like?  Jalen McMillan finished in the top-20 in each of the last five games and it makes sense to fade Godwin and embrace McMillan considering at best it could be half of a season before Godwin gets going.

Washington Commanders – Everyone knew Jayden Daniels was going to be a dual-threat fantasy monster, but his rookie season was something else.  From Week 12 to Week 17 his worst finish was QB7 and if you drafted him, you had a great chance of winning your league.  The one league I drafted him I won and his distressed ADP was one of the few gifts of the fantasy season.

What did we learn? The QB position continues to be unpredictable after Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.  There is too much value at the end of your draft to spend high draft capital on a QB.  We say it every year and then talk ourselves into Anthony Richardson or Jordan Love.  In my best league I went Jared Goff and Daniels in b2b rounds and sailed through the finals.  Let it be put in stone that the QB position should be shot gunned and wait as long as you can and spend two picks on QB in the 9/10th round.

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