May 10, 2023, 1:47 am
Believing too much in small sample sizes can either make or break your fantasy baseball season. A good phrase to remember is “regression to the mean”, which basically means if a number is extreme compared to the rest of the data, it usually balances out closer to the mean over time. So if proven players are having a bad start to the season, be patient as they will most likely pick it up, and if career below-average players are tearing it up they will most likely regress. Of course, breakouts happen; that’s why it’s always good to be patient. With that, I’m going to get into 3 guys that you should target as buy-low candidates and 3 guys you should look to trade based on their inflated value. A few names I might’ve mentioned on my Twitter (@Andrew_FBB) so you can check them out over there as well!
Undervalued Players to Buy
Christian Yelich OF Brewers
Yelich is having a pretty decent start to the season with a slash line of .244 BA/ 4 HR/ 16 RBI/ 7 SB in 152 plate appearances. He has been much more aggressive this season at the plate which explains the dip in his walks. Yelich is posting a career-high with a 54.7 HardHit% which is in the top 5% in the league. Hitting the ball this hard is a great sign but an even better sign is that this is accompanied by a .282 xBA which is in the 82nd percentile. He is contributing in every stat right now and the batting average hasn’t even caught up to how well he is hitting the ball. I would attempt to acquire Yelich before the stats start to even out.
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