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December 20, 2024, 8:30 amWhat was expected?
After failing, again, to win a single playoff game in the 2023 playoffs, the Blue Jays came into the 2024 season optimistic that they would compete for a playoff spot. The front office expected bounce back seasons from George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Alejandro Kirk, plus some help from Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to support a very good starting rotation.
Led by Kevin Gausman, with support from Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt and the newly signed Yariel Rodriguez, with added depth from Alek Manoah and Bowden Francis, the Blue Jays expected to have one of the best rotations, not just in the American League East, but the entirety of the big leagues. They would hand the ball off to Chad Green, Yimi Garcia and the gang, before closing things out with dominant reliever Jordan Romano.
They lost Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Hyun Jin Ryu to free agency, but believe the small additions they made with resurgences from their elite hitters, to go along with their great rotation and even better bullpen will lead them to the playoffs, where they hope to stop their current seven game, post season losing streak.
How did it go?
Absolutely terribly. For a team with World Series aspirations, they were pretty much out of the running by the end of May. They finished 74-88. fifth in the American League East, with a middle of the pack offense, middle of the pack rotation and one of, if not the worst, bullpen. They traded away Yusei Kikuchi, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nate Pearson, Cavan Biggio and Kevin Kiermaier, gaining Joey Loperfido, Ryan Yarborough, Jake Bloss, Yohendrick Pinango, Josh Rivera, Charles McAdoo and Braydon Fisher. More value went out, then came back, though they saved plenty of money moving on from a handful of these guys. Kevin Gausman had his worst season in years, Bo Bichette had a dreadful first half before missing most of the second half with injuries, Jordan Romano was terrible before elbow surgery, Alek Manoah needed internal brace surgery and George Springer started to look his age.
There was some good in 20244. Vlaimir Guerrero Jr. bounced back in a big way (as we’ll talk about shortly), posting a 165 wRC+ and finishing second among all qualified hitters with a 0.323 batting average. The rotation was decent (we’ll talk Kevin Gausman later), as Jose Berrios threw 192.1 innings with a 3.60 ERA and strikeouts. Chris Bassitt was solid as the #3 starter in the rotation, covering 171 innings (three straight seasons oof 171 or more innings, by the way), with a 4.16 ERA, 168 strikeouts and just 18 home runs allowed. And then there was second half standout Bowden Francis, who was mainly a long reliever until Kikuchi was traded, who made ten starts from Juy 29th until the end of the year, allowing 2 ER or less in eight starts, including a four start, 29 inning stretch where he allowed only two total earned runs, struck out 32 and walked only three.
Fantasy Stud?
There is no choice but Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., who produced the second best season of his young career, in 2024. He hit 30 home runs, 44 doubles (career high), scored 98 runs, drove in 103 base runners, had a 0.323 batting average (career high), a 0.940 OPS and a 165 wRC+. Add it all up and it was good enough for 5.5 fWAR, the second highest total of his career (6.3 fWAR in 2021, when the Blue Jays played their home games in a small minor league stadium in Buffalo and he hit 48 home runs, with more than 100 runs and RBI).
His 0.323 batting average was good for second in the majors, his 165 wRc+ was sixth, his 13.8% strikeout rate was good for eighth (he was one of only four 30 home run hitters with a strikeout rate of 15% or lower). Among first baseman, he ranked first in runs, first in average, third in RBI, tied for third in home runs, first in OPS, first in wRC+ and first in fWAR.
He was in the top 5% in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, maximum exit velocity and bat speed; top 7% in strikeout rate; top 9% in barrel rate and in the top 32% in swing and miss rate.
He is a top three first baseman and should produce another top flight fantasy season in 2025. He will be drafted inside the top 15 picks and is the first first baseman off the board in nearly every draft.
Fantasy Dud?
Choosing the dud was difficult, since the Jays had such incredible let downs from two great players. Do I choose Bo Bichette, who was dreadful over the first half of the season and then missed 95% of the second half to injury or do we talk about Kevin Gausman and his drop off from top five starter to you can grab him in the 10th round if you’d like?
I decided to go with Bichette because a) he was terrible when he played and b) he missed literally half the season. Injuries happen, so I won’t hold the second half against him. He had calf, forearm and finger injuries throughout the second half, ultimately ending the year on the injured list when he broke his finger on September 17th.
Before all the injury problems though? Bleak. If you look at his savant page, had he qualified for the leaderboards, the only “good” ranks would have been xBA, hard-hit rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate, though none were even in the 70th percentile. He had the lowest barrel rate of his carer (4.4%), the second lowest hard-hit rate (43%), had a 1.59 ground ball to fly ball rate (not great for hitting home runs and driving the ball for extra base hits), raised his walk rate (though it was just to 6%) and had the worst BABIP and batting average of his career. His ISO has dropped every season since his rookie year and he hardly steals bases (only 14 attempts over his last 937 plate appearances, after 21 across 697 PA in 2022 alone).
If he was still hitting 20 home runs with a high level batting average, the lack of stolen bases could be excused, but it’s tough to draft a middle infielder and not get double-digit steals out of them. Bichette is sure to fall down rankings and draft boards for the 2025 season, as he should. He is someone I will be staying away from, unless he drops past pick 170 or so (he’s currently being drafted around pick 147 in high stakes leagues, with a min pick of 109 and max pixck of 171 in December).
Fantasy Surprise?
Was there any choice other than post-All Star break ace Bowden Francis for the fantasy surprise for the Blue Jays? He finished the year as the 37th best starter and was one of only two top 40 starters that pitched less than 120 innings on the season (Blake Snell had 104 innings).
From July 29th throug the end of the season, over 10 starts, Francis was tied for the 23rd most fWAR produced amongst starting pitchers. He threw 64.2 innings, had an 8.07 K/9, 1.11 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 15.3% line-drive rate, 7.9% barrel rate, 36% hard-hit rate, with an 89.5 MPH averageexit velocity, 31.3% chase rate and 11% swinging strike rate.
Do I think he will be a top 25 pitcher for 2025? No. Do I think he will have a very nice return on the draft investment you have to make in him? Absolutely. He is currently the 64th or so starter being draft, right around pick 221/222, though is slowly dropping to later in the draft, as his min pick the past week was 202, compared to 169 the first 10 days of December. There is a solid pathway to a top 50 season for Francis and you’re able to take that gamble after pick 200 and after 65 or more starters are being drafted. Wonderful.
Player Breakdowns:
Hitters
George Springer – OF
Has father time finally caught up with my favorite former Astros player? Maybe, if you look at the stat cast data. Springer posted the lowest average exit velocity, maximum exity velocity and hard-hit rates of his career, though his barrel rate was higher than the previous two seasons, but not back up into the double digit rates he had from 2019 to 2021. He haslo had the highest ground ball rate and third lowest fly ball rates of his career, with just a 16.4% line drive rate.
He still makes really good swing decisions, chasing only 21.5% of pitches, while making contacting on pitches in the zone 84.9% of the time and 77% of the time overall, with just a 49.3% swing rate and 11.3% swinging strike rate. He also failed to hit 20 home runs in a season for the first time since 2015 (non-covid full season), but did manage to hit 19 and stole 16 bases, tied for the second most in a season in his career.
His batting average fell off a cliff, though there was some bad batted ball luck there that should have some positive regression this year. He probably won’t be a 0.260 to 0.270 hitter anymore, but if he has another 18/15 with 150+ runs+RBI and a 0.245 season, that will play in most leagues. You can currently draft Springer around pick 236, as the 57th outfielder off the board, which is probably a little lower than I’d have him ranked (I think h’ll be around the 50th or so OF on my rankings), so it’s probably a good enough spot to grab him.
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Daulton Varsho – OF
You know, for someone with a solid contact rate (76.1%), solid in-zone contact rate (83.2%), a nice chase rate (26.7%) that has dropped two years in a row and a low swing rate (47.5%; 61st lowest out of all qualified hitters), Varsho really does struggle to have a decent batting average. Guys with his hit tool and eye at the plate normally hit for a higher average, even if it is just in the 0.250 to 0.260 range. Varsho has decided, though, that his batting average should drop from 0.246 his rookie year to 0.214 last year. And maybe it’s the low BABIP’s, but he has well above average speed, so even that should be a little bit higher.
Speaking of that speed, the twelve stolen base attempts he had in 2024 were easily the least amount he’s had since his rookie season, lower plate appearances be damned. There’s no way he was going to attempt to steal 11 more bags if he had 68 more plate appearances.
The good news is that the power ticked back up, even though his avgEV, barrel rate and hard-hit rate all dropped, because he posted the highest fly ball rate of his career, which allowed a few extra balls to drop into the gaps and sneak over some fences.
If you can tolerate his terrible batting average and know you probably won’t get more than 600 plate appearances out of him, a 20/10 season with 130+ combined runs and RBI is worth more than being drafted as the 82nd outfielder off the board. He finished the year just inside the top 60 outfielder last year and missed some time. Give him his usual 590 plate appearances and he finishes closer to the top 50 than the top 80 for sure.
Ernie Clement – SS/3B
If you play in deeper leagues, Clement was a name you became dutifully comfortable with very quickly last year, as he filled injury holes at SS or 3B as needed for most of the year. Clement ended the year as the 23rd ranked SS and 21st ranked 3B, so those deep 20+ team leagues knew of Clement well before those of us who play in 12, 14 or 15 team leagues.
And he had a pretty decent season for what was his first full year in the big leagues. He spent parts of 2021, ’22 and ’23 in the bigs before getting to play in 139 games and see 452 PA in 2024. He hit 12 home runs, scored 41 runs, drove in 44 base runners and stole 12 bases, while hitting 0.263.
Clement rarely walks (3.7% career walk rate), rarely strikes out (9.1% strikeout rate in 2024; 11% carer), has limited power (85.5 MPH average exit velocity), but lifts the ball (41.7% fly ball rate, 0.91 ground ball to fly ball ratio), makes a ton of contact, both in-zone (92.7%) and overall (87.5%), while chasing a ton of pitches (43.8%), but swinging and missing only 7% of the time.
He will again be a deep league target only, with no guarantees he gets to maintain his role as the current starting third baseman for the team. Also, the 12 home runs he hit in the big leagues last year were more than he hit in his first five years in professional baseball combined.
The best of the rest
Alejandro Kirk, if he could just stay healthy, would be a top five to eight fantasy catcher season over season. Unfortunately, over the last three seasons, he has had 500 or more plate appearances only once, back in 2022. With Danny Jansen out of the picture now, the full time backstop duties fall to Kirk alone now. If he can maintain his health and continue to elevate the ball while continuing to make the elite swing decisions that he always has, the 21st catcher drafted, on average, will return a tremendous value to those willing to take the risk on him…Will Wagner is currently pencilled in to be the opening day designated hitter, but I don’t think he will have much of a fantasy impact. Though his statcast numbers looked great last year in his small sample size (90.6 MPH avgEV, 9.1% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate), he hit 53% of the balls he made contact with into the ground, had 2.33x more ground balls than fly balls and chased more pitches than you’d like. Though he does make a ton of contact (81.3% overall, 93.3% in-zone), he doesn’t do enough with that contact to justify investing any kind of fantasy value into him. His lack of power and lack of speed make him a better real-life asset than fantasy asset.
Pitchers
Kevin Gausman – SP
From top 5 to top 50, in one fell swoop, Gausman disappointed everyone who drafted him in 2024. Gausman’s season was littered with “the worst since 20XX”. Like the worst strikeout rate (8.06 K/9; almost a full three-and-a-half strikeouts lower than 2023) since 2018, the worst walk rate (2.78 BB/9) since 2017, slowest average fastball speed (93.9MPH) since 2018, second highest barrel-rate of his career (9.7%), second highest hard-hit rate of his career (41.4%) and the highest average exit velocity of any seaso of his career (90.2 MPH).
Two things pretty much carried his 2023 season: the fact that even though he was worse than his prior seasons, he still ended the year with his tied-for most in a season wins, and the fact that he pitched 181 innings, 19th most. Unfortunately, he ended his run of 200 strikeout seasons at three and walked more than 65 batters for the first time since 2019. He came out of the 2023 seasons as one of the best pitchers in the entire league, had struckout at least 10 batters per nine innings pitched for five consecutive seasons, allowed more ground balls than fly balls and had a chase rate north of 30%.
His fastball was good not great and his splitter was a solid pitch but not nearly as strong as it had been in previous seasons. His slider was bad and he added a terrible sinker to the group as well. With all four of his pitches regressing or merely maintaining, he struggled to get strikeouts, put away hitters and force hitters to chase bad pitches. His 29.8% chase rate was his lowast since 2018, his 10.5% swinging strike rate was his lowest since 2014 and his contact rate was the highest it had been since 2014 as well.
Though he had much better run suppression and home run suppression in the second half, his strikeout rate and walk rate were much worse. I do not feel optimistic that he will return to the Gausman of old, a top 10 SP and Cy Young candidate leading the Blue Jays rotation. He’s currently the 57th starter off the board in December high stakes drafts, drafted right around pick 161. He’s probably properly valued there, though if he puts up the same numbers but with less wins, he’ll be worth much less. I’ll probably avoid him unless I can get him nearer his max pick (194) than where he is going now.
Jose Berrios – SP
Berrios has six straight non-covid seasons throwing 172 or more innings (192.1 in 2024), saw his strikeout rate drop (7.16 K/9), his walk rate (2.53 BB/9) and home run rate (1.45 HR/9) rise, had an ERA under 4.00 for the sixth time (and three times in the last four year), had the highest ground ball rate of his career (43.2%) and third lowest fly-ball rate (36.8%) and had some ugly statcast numbers (89.6 MPH avgEV, 114.5 MPH maxEV was a career high, 7.8% barrel rate – lowest since 20202, 41.5% hard-hit rate – 2nd highest of career).
He finished the 2024 season as the 28th best fantasy SP (I’m sure the 16 wins helped), but is being drafted outside the top 60 starters and well after pick 200 (235 ADP, 205 min pick, 290 max pick). His value lies somewhere in the middle, where he is probably a top 40-45 starter with top 30 upside due to volume and wins. With his track record and the Blue Jays hoping to be a better team in 2025, I will gladly draft him as my 4th, 5th or 6th starter and reap the rewards and profit.
Chris Bassitt – SP
Bassitt is the perfect back-end of the rotation arm. Strikes out nearly a btter per innings, limits home runs, normally limits walks, allows more ground balls than fly balls and puts his team in a position to win more often than not.
2024 ended up being his worst season since 2019, as he posted the worst full season ERA of his career (4.16, previous career high was 3.81 back in 2019), worst full season walk rate of his career (3.68 BB/9 up one full walk per nine from 2023 and 0.78 higher than his career BB/9) and had the worst batted ball luck of his career (0.333 BABIP, higher than every year of his career save his debut season). He had solid, if unspectacular, statcast data, with an avgEV in the 76th percentile, a hard-hit rate in the 65th percentile and a barrel rate in the 54th percentile, which were all above average but nothing to brag about.
Most of his decision data lines up with his career averages (his chase rate was 0.5% lower than his career average, swinging strike rate 0.4% lower than his career average, for example), so it looks like the culprit to blame for his poor season was how terrible his sinker was, which went from ELITE in 2023 (when I say elite, I mean it was 7 runs better than ANY other sinker in baseball and he threw it more than all but three other pitchers) to absolutely dreadful (he went from a +27 run value in 2023 to +3 run value in 2024, an absolutely astounding one year drop). And I don’t really know how to explain the massive difference in effectiveness other than really bad luck. His sinker maintained essentially the same shape, the same movement and the same drop, yet it was 24 runs worse? 18 more hits in 48 less plate appearances from 2023 to 2024.
Chalk it up to bad BABIP luck and grab him super late in your drafts (min pick 210, max pick 439 in December drafts right now) and laugh all the way to the bank.
Chad Green – RP
When Jordan Romano started the season out poorly and missed most of the season due to an elbow injury, someone had to step up to stabilize the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen. The job ulitmately was spread between a few different Jays relievers until it ultimately ended up in Green’s lap.
Green grabbed a few saves in April, then settled in behind Romano while he pitched poorly, before moving into a sort of co-closer role with Yimi Garcia (before he was traded to Seattle), but ultimately ended up spending the most time in the coveted closer’s position, leading the Blue Jays in saves (17), while also grabbing four wins and seven holds in the process.
2024 stands out for Green for a few reasons. One, it was the first time since 2021 that he had pitched more than 15 innings in a season, as he missed parts of both 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and recovery, but it also resulted in the worst strikeout rate (7.76 K/9) of his career and one of the worst home run rates of his career (1.35 HR/9). Green allows far too much hard contact (45.9% hard-hit rate) and too many barrels (8.8% rate) for such a small sample size, while allowing far too many fly balls (50% fly ball rate). Now, he did limit line drives to just a 12.8% rate, but that does not feel replicable for someone who had posted a line drive rate of 20% or higher in all but two previous seasons.
He is not an elite reliever anymore and is one of the least desired closers for fantasy purposes (he’s being drafted after pick 300 and is the 115th pitcher, SP or RP, off the board) and may not have the job for the entire year. The Jays re-signed Yimi Garcia and, if they truly are looking to compete, will have to consider trading for or signing another very good bullpen arm. Until then, though, Green is worth the late round investment (though his min pick is 163, you can probably wait much longer in most drafts to grab him), since you can cut him if he is not closing and it will not affect your team much at all.
The best of the rest
Yariel Rodriguez is probably a season long streamer type starter instead of a draft him to start him type, but in deep league, high stakes leagues that have weekly lineup changes, he’s the kind of guy you draft and place on your bench, strategically starting him when he faces terrible offenses or average offenses in bad offensive environments. He has major command and control problems, as displayed by his 4.15 BB/9, but has strikeout per inning upside, limits home runs and had decently above average statcast numbers. He’s basically free in drafts, you can grab him so late. If he can get his walks down to around 3 BB/9, watch out…I just wanted to mention Yimi Garcia because they brought him back as a free agent after trading him to the Mariners at the trade deadline last year. At the time he as traded, he was the best performing arm in the Jays bullpen, having split closer duties with Chad Green for a time. Now, he was worse in Seattle than Toronto, but he also ended the year on the injured list, so I don’t want to overreact to 9 not-so-great innings over 30 really good ones. He is a career strikeout per inning guy with a low walk rate and has had low home run rates over the last few years. He is expected to be ready for spring training and, I think, might make it tough for the Jays to keep Green in the closer’s spot. If they don’t add any other arms to the bullpen, especially any experience closers, I’d keep a close eye on both Garcia and Green throughout Spring Training, before investing even a late round pick in either. I think Garcia has the upside to be a top 12 closer, Green a top 20 or worse.
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