Dynasty Stock Report: October

  • We’re four weeks into the NFL season, and so much has happened already that I’m starting to lose track.

    If you’re an avid dynasty manager, losing track isn’t something you can afford to do. It’s critically important to know when the best time to acquire or move on from a player, as that’s the key way to get the upper hand on your league mates during the season.

    So what we’re going to do is go through each of the four primary fantasy positions and discuss five different players. We’ll touch on a player whose stock is rising, a player whose stock is falling, a buy low candidate, a sell high candidate and a player whose dynasty stock might just be gone forever (RIP). Even if you aren’t an avid dynasty manager, this will be a helpful guide for any fantasy player looking to get an extra edge moving forward.

    Quarterback

    Stock Up

    Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (QB2 on KTC)

    Since the NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels had largely been considered a risky dynasty QB prospect. The vision for a player like Daniels was Justin Fields, a quarterback whose rushing upside made him an automatically solid fantasy player, but whose entire package as a football player made it closer to a coin flip that he’d get a starting job on his second contract.

    The script on Daniels totally flipped when he arrowed perhaps the best pure throw of the NFL season to Terry McLaurin on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Daniels, who backed that performance up by whipping the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4, now sits as the QB2 in SuperFlex formats on KTC. Only Josh Allen ranks above him, and he’s ascended past Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud in recent weeks.

    If you drafted Daniels, you likely drafted him after Caleb Williams, and you may have stumbled into a fantasy gold mine. Daniels is the QB1 in four-point TD scoring, and his managers should hold and enjoy the ride.

    Stock Down

    Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (QB13 on KTC)

    I’ve got to say, this one surprised me. Richardson’s value largely held through his rookie year, in which he flashed his insane scoring upside, but he got injured multiple times and missed most of the season. The last few weeks marks the first real break in the dam of Richardson’s previously unimpeachable dynasty prospects.

    It just doesn’t seem like it’s going to work for Richardson, at least so far. The early season deep balls to Alec Pierce were, in a word, insane. Very few quarterbacks on earth could make those throws. But most quarterbacks on earth can make the easier throws that Richardson misses repeatedly. It doesn’t seem like he’s very good at the actual playing of the quarterback position yet, despite his incredible raw tools.

    And then there’s the injury problem, which reared its ugly head again in Week 4. Richardson was injured in the middle of a drive, replaced by Joe Flacco, returned later in the same drive and injured himself AGAIN by running recklessly into a big, legal hit on the very first play. It doesn’t seem like he knows or cares to know how to keep himself healthy. As such, Richardson has fallen from his stable spot as the QB6 or QB7 in SuperFlex formats to as low as QB14 this week. It’s a really difficult situation to deal with for dynasty managers, as Richardson’s flaws are currently winning the battle against his immense talent.

    Buy Low

    Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (QB19 on KTC)

    I totally get why Lawrence has fallen. The Jaguars might currently be the most depressing team in the league, all things considered. Lawrence hasn’t won a game since last Thanksgiving. He had a horrifying pick on national television in Week 3 that he threw directly to Damar Hamlin, which caused it to go super viral.

    But this situation cannot get an worse for Lawrence. Doug Pederson is extremely obviously going to be the first NFL coach fired. I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened in October. Until that happens, I think there’s a clear buy window on Lawrence, who would benefit from a different voice guiding him, and will almost certainly get a wunderkind offensive coordinator like Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik as his coach next year. Lawrence also has great weapons around him, including the awesome rookie Brian Thomas, Jr., two dynamic running backs (shoutout Tank Bigsby for coming back to life) and quality veteran auxiliary weapons like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram (who has missed basically the entire season so far).

    Lawrence turns 25 years old on Sunday and is one of the highest-rated Top QB prospects ever. He is going to be fine long-term, and even if his ceiling isn’t what it once was, he’ll stabilize into a reliable SuperFlex starter for years to come. He’s a clear buy for me.

    Sell High

    Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (QB6 on KTC)

    I really like Jalen Hurts as a fantasy QB, and if you’re competing this year with him as your QB1, I think selling is a difficult proposition. I just see so much uncertainty right now for a QB who ranks only behind Allen, Daniels, Stroud, Jackson and Mahomes, and that concerns me. This isn’t as extreme a case as Richardson, but it’s a similar one. Hurts is an extremely valuable fantasy football player and just a good NFL QB. His value is largely tied into his incredible volume of rushing touchdowns and his status as the starting quarterback of the Eagles, who surround him with elite weapons and an incredible offensive line.

    Hurts is currently the weak link in that equation, in my opinion. Well, not the weakest, I suppose. That would be the Nick Sirianni regime, which is hurtling to a rapid conclusion. But with Sirianni destined to be replaced in the next few months, how hot does Hurts’ seat become as the QB1? Probably not too hot, but if a new coach comes in, looks at this offense and tries to pin point how to upgrade it, the biggest weakness other than, say, WR3, would be the QB. Hurts is a premium fantasy QB who isn’t a premium NFL QB, and that makes his dynasty value more tenuous than other premium options.


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