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September 3, 2024, 3:35 pm
As we inch closer and closer to the start of the season with each passing day, our stances on players and teams for the upcoming year of football become more and more confident. Today, I’m going to be running through 25 of my boldest predictions for the 2024 NFL Fantasy Football season. Here, you can find some of my takes that go against the grain of consensus and tackle some of the most polarizing players available in this year’s drafts.
#1 – Pass on Elite Tight Ends
While Sam LaPorta set a new mark for rookie tight end expectations in 2023 and Travis Kelce always feels like a safe bet to finish a cut above the rest, there are a handful of prospects that could finish near the top of the rankings at the end of the season. In my opinion, the top-10 or so starting tight ends will be flatter than ever, with guys going in the mid-to-late rounds just as capable. Guys like George Kittle, Evan Engram and David Njoku are all getting drafted outside the top-five at their position based on consensus ADP with less than two weeks till the start of the season. Grab an elite quarterback or add to your RB/WR moneymakers instead of paying up for an elite TE.
#2 – Christian McCaffrey’s Days Alone at the top are over
This isn’t a take against CMC in the slightest, and he should still be the comfortable number one overall pick given the track record of the fantasy football legend. However, young guns Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are champing at the bit. While they like won’t be in as efficient of offenses, the amount of volume and explosiveness they possess in 2024 could catapult them into a realm few backs have challenged since CMC rose to the top in Carolina. All three running backs have a chance to average over 20 FPPG in PPR with ease, while also bringing week-winning explosions to lucky fantasy managers on the regular.
#3 – Draft the Old-Heads at WR with Confidence
At this stage of the off-season, there are currently 17 WRs taken within the first three rounds of half-point PPR fantasy football drafts. Among the oldest in that range are WR15 Mike Evans and WR17 Cooper Kupp, who are both proven to be among the most consistent producers in recent years of fantasy football. Evans finished as the WR4 on the season last year, and Cooper Kupp battled injuries and the emergence of rookie sensation Puka Nacua enroute to a respectable 12 FPPG in 11 full games last season. I have both wideouts finishing among the WR1 crowd once again in 2024, surpassing some of the bust candidates going in the rounds prior, like Drake London or Chris Olave.
#4 – Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard will be Playoff Ticket-Punchers
Want to load up everywhere else on your roster and still finding a starting-caliber running back outside the top-100 picks? Look no further than Jerome Ford and Chuba Hubbard, going in the ninth and eleventh rounds respectively. Both running backs are starting the year as the top backs on their rosters, and should see heavy workloads that are unrivaled at the point of the drafts that fantasy managers can find them available at. Both are RB2s with the potential to maintain their role even beyond the return of the projected season-end backfield leaders, Nick Chubb and rookie Jonathon Brooks. The value provided by Ford and Hubbard will allow teams to get out to a hot start while they are most valuable, giving them a head start in the playoff hunt.
#5 – Trevor Lawrence is a Dark-Horse Elite Fantasy QB Candidate
My favorite dark horse candidate to break into the elite quarterback tier with the big dogs in Trevor Lawrence with his new supporting cast in 2024. With the additions of rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. and the explosive former-Bill Gabe Davis, Lawrence has a well-rounded core of pass-catches that will allow him to surgically pick apart defenses at every level of the field. The team has also suggested that they want to lighten the load of Travis Etienne by way of backup RB Tank Bigsby, but I think this could also suggest that they intend to lean more heavily on their retooled aerial attack.
#6 – Justice Hill will Finish as a Top-40 RB on the season
Not the highest bar in the world for a bold prediction, but for a guy being drafted as the RB68 in drafts at the moment, Justice Hill is going to be on the field a lot for one of the best offenses in the league. While new-Ravens RB Derrick Henry will surely dominate the snap share and scoring opportunities out of the backfield, Hill is expected to be the featured passing-down RB. Coach Harbaugh even declared Hill was a starter and a high-value running back that will play a lot. The pass-catching upside makes Hill one of my favorite picks at the end of drafts in leagues with more than 12 teams.
#7 – A Dozen Tight Ends have Top-Three Potential
Piggybacking off of my first take on the list, part of the reason I’m so comfortable passing on elite tight end is because there is a boatload of talented pass-catching tight ends that are breathing life back to a position that has been dominated by an elite group, namely Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews in recent years. Now, guys as deep as TE11 rookie Brock Bowers and even TE17 Taysom Hill have the potential to finish at the top of the positional leaderboards on a weekly basis. Hill is basically the RB2 and goal-line, gadget back for the Saints, seeing arguably the most valuable touches out of any fantasy TE prospect: goal-line carries. You can comfortably replace the steep draft price of an elite tight end with a league-winning QB or WRs and RBs with massive upside.
#8 – Jaleel McLaughlin is the RB to Draft from Denver
While there are a ton of members of the Broncos’ backfield that have made themselves an intriguing look this off-season, Jaleel McLaughlin has been my player of choice to target in drafts. What intrigues me the most about a Sean Payton RB is the potential role in the passing game out of the backfield, akin to many different pass-catching RBs that Payton deployed in his tenure as longtime Saints HC. McLaughlin reportedly would stay after practice to work on his routes with Bo Nix throughout training camp. With Nix named the week one starter and Samaje Perine in Kansas City after being cut short of the Broncos’ 53-man roster, it could be all systems go for McLaughlin to be the next breakout dual-threat RB in the young Broncos offense.
#9 – Bo Nix is Drafted as a Top-12 QB Next Season
Back-to-back Broncos praise? I felt like I needed to sneak in another QB take into the list, and Bo Nix is someone who could turn in fringe-QB1 fantasy numbers after he settles into the NFL, becoming a household name atop the rankings by the end of the season. While he may not necessarily be a league-winner this season, I think he will show enough that a strong off-season of development and management bolstering the offensive line and/or weapons around him could catapult him into the top-15 QBs easily. And if he isn’t drafted that high under those circumstances, he will be a great value in his sophomore season.
#10 – Braelon Allen is the best Handcuff in the League
Is there any backup running back for any of the top-12 RBs that could better replicate the starter’s production than rookie Braelon Allen in New York? He’s a hard-nosed runner with decent pass-catching and pass-protection chops, and whatever he lacks in speed he makes up for with a 6’1″, 235 lb build that allows him to barrel through wannabe-tacklers. We saw Breece Hall possess one of the most immense workloads among RBs to end the season last year, finishing with 31 touches per game across his last three appearances in 2023. The Jets also saw massive improvements to their offensive line in the NFL over the off-season, which PFF now considers a top-five position group in the league. In Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for nearly 2500 scrimmage yards and 14 touchdowns, finishing as the RB9 and RB25 respectively. Even if Hall remains healthy, is it unrealistic to see Allen see meaningful touches to spell Breece Hall throughout the season? That tole could lead him to a similar finish as Dillon, despite being drafted as the RB56 overall, and is commonly left on waivers in redraft leagues.
#11 – The Hunt for the Next Puka Nacua
The gospel around rookie WRs has officially reached wildfire status and the draft capital to snag Marvin Harrison Jr. is almost insane. Drafting players at their ceiling is never ideal and that goes for Malik Nabers as well. There are still plenty of diamonds in the rough and it just makes too much sense not to take a flier on some of the later rookie WRs. Brian Thomas Jr. seems to be the most natural fit to make the leap, but Keon Coleman is in a great position as is Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy. No one knows who is going to pan out, so getting one or two of these lottery tickets is definitely a good investment in the later rounds.
#12 – Stashing is the New Hoarding
If you have a deep bench, it’s imperative to get one of the injured studs starting the season on the IR. Nick Chubb, TJ Hockenson and Jonathan Brooks are all potential league swingers if they can bounce back. We all know that it takes a while to get back to 100% even if they are cleared for action. Treat these guys as second half players even if they are on the field in Week 5, but if a player is going to waste away on your bench, they may as well be getting healthy.
#13 – Prepare for the Elite Fantasy QB out of Nowhere
No one could have reasonably predicted Brock Purdy, Joe Flacco and CJ Stroud blowing up last season and this season there are plenty of dark horses who haven’t yet emerged or are sitting behind the current starter. Sam Howell, Justin Fields, Michael Penix Jr., Joshua Dobbs and even Jameis Winston could see their time in the sun this season. They aren’t worth stashing yet, maybe in Superflex leagues with a deep bench, but if you can get elite QB production out of thin air, it’s a massive boost to the ceiling of your fantasy team.
#14 – The Best Advantage is a Hot Start
It might not be galaxy brain thinking to want to start off 3-0, but trust me it allows you take much bigger risks with your team. If one fantasy team starts 0-3 and was stashing Chubb or Hockenson, you can trade them someone who will help them right away. Desperation is makes fantasy GMs do crazy things and you always want to operate from a position of strength when trading.
#15 – Buy the Dip
Everyone has short memories, but bad memories always seem to linger. If a player had a down year last season and is still young, he is probably being undervalued. Jaxon-Smith Njigba is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Christian Watson is going to be the WR1 on one of the best offenses in the NFL. Hollywood Brown will be the deep threat for a deep-ball resurgent Patrick Mahomes. These are my three must-have WRs and is one of the main reasons I’m not targeting WRs early. I also love Zay Flowers and don’t understand why people aren’t projecting his second-year blow up.