• With the end of the season on the horizon, we are starting a new dynasty series! We will be reviewing all 30 NBA teams, discussing dynasty risers, neutrals, and fallers for every player on the roster. We will also be detailing a general outlook on the team’s future situation from an offseason perspective. This series will provide a nice overview of players’ dynasty standing as we head into the offseason and the draft. An important question you may ask yourself is how exactly do you evaluate players as risers, neutrals, or fallers? Well, we got the answers for you.

    There are a number of criteria that go into placing each player as a riser, neutral, or a faller. Obviously player performance is highly important. Is a player showing improved skills and new capabilities that either allow them to play more minutes or garner greater usage? Or vice versa – is a player stagnating and demonstrating more of a peak value or even past-prime production? There are many ways to identify skill gains or plateaus, whether it be simple true shooting percentages, usage rates, rebound rates, defensive rates, and numerous others.

    The important thing to remember with all of these stats is to know what the stat is measuring and what that means on the court. Stats have their value, but they are not just something you should trust without an understanding. One example of this is effective field goal percentage, or eFG%. eFG% essentially treats threes as 1.5x as valuable as a two-pointer in the calculation. For example, a player who hits 5-of-10 from deep will have an eFG% of 75%, while a player who hit 5-of-10 from two will have an eFG% of 50%. While having a higher eFG% is generally better, it is somewhat connected to a player’s shot diet. A midrange-heavy player like Brandon Ingram has an eFG% of 53% on the season. Would anyone argue that Dereck Lively II is a better shotmaker even though he has an eFG% of 75%? This is just one way stats can be misleading if taken at face value.

    Another factor is injury and injury history. If a player keeps having similar recurring injuries (think Bradley Beal and his back), then their dynasty value takes a hit. You have to be on the court to put up stats! Paired with this concept is the anticipated role and playing time. Even if a player puts up nice stats on a per-minute basis, if they won’t see the court enough that doesn’t matter. Think Aleksej Pokusevki here from a few years ago or Jonathan Isaac this season. While Isaac looks great in his limited minutes, the fact still remains that they are limited minutes. His body just can’t handle playing more than 20 minutes per game, so there’s only so much fantasy value he can provide.

    The last ranking category is what we call the “prospect caveat”. Prospects are rarely positive players on-court and thus could see their minutes limited early in their career. They take time to develop and may not see a role right away. This applies to someone like Taylor Hendricks this season, Aaron Nesmith from previous years, or Jalen Johnson who broke out fully this season. We have to take into account a player’s potential when factoring in their current value. At the same time, we don’t want to overrate this potential, as present production is more valuable than future production. I previously conducted a study of how well prospects perform in fantasy; you can check that out here.

    Click Here for Prospects' Fantasy Finishes

    These are most of the major identifiers we use here for dynasty evaluation. In our upcoming dynasty reviews, for each player (or group of players), we will reference some of this reasoning in order to translate why they are a riser, neutral, or a faller. In addition, we will put the dynasty ranking of players next to their name to give you an idea of where they fall. This will be a range, so Derrick White (65-80) for instance is roughly between 65th and 80th. Be on the lookout for those in the upcoming weeks!

    You’ll be able to access every team’s article from this page as well, and we’ll add in the links as each team gets published. Think of this as your hub for our 2024 Dynasty Review. Enjoy!

    Boston Celtics

    Denver Nuggets

    LA Clippers

    Milwaukee Bucks

    Memphis Grizzlies

    Sacramento Kings

    Los Angeles Lakers

    Oklahoma City Thunder

    Cleveland Cavaliers

    New York Knicks

    Phoenix Suns

    Philadelphia 76ers

    Dallas Mavericks

    Miami Heat

    Chicago Bulls

    Washington Wizards

    Toronto Raptors

    Golden State Warriors

    Charlotte Hornets

    New Orleans Pelicans

    Utah Jazz

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