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AFC North

What went right?

The AFC North is the perfect example of why we should never overreact to Week 1.  Many people were ready to write the fantasy obituaries for Derrick Henry and Joe Burrow after subpar starts and then all they did was finish as top-three players at their respective positions.  To be honest, it looked ugly after Week 1.  The Ravens o-line couldn’t block and Burrow couldn’t get the ball downfield.  Every year we preach patience and since it feels like forever until we actually get to Week 1, everyone wants to make definitive statements after what is essentially a preseason game for most of veteran star players.  I personally was scared of the AFC North because I thought it was going to be a bloodbath in the division games, but with CIN allowing the 7th most fantasy points to every skill position, there ended up being plenty of shootouts.  If you went all-out and targeted the best stack in the game, Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, there is a great chance you were highly competitive late in the season.  Between Weeks 9-17, Burrow never had less than 250 passing yards and three passing TDs which is an unbelievable floor for a QB who isn’t a threat to run.  Chase meanwhile between Week s10-17 never had less six grabs and 75 yards, but only one top-10 finish in the fantasy playoffs.  The CIN passing attack was one of the most dominant fantasy threats in the game and that is no more evident by the fact that Chase and Tee Higgins were ranked first and third in FPPG.  It was a bounce back season for Burrow and Chase as they had finished as the QB25 and WR13 the last season.  They have a clear symbiotic relationship as one thrives, so does the other.  More and more, I keep coming back to targeting teams over players and the recipe seems to start with an explosive offense combined with a terrible defense.   We saw the same thing with DET as they were winning games by scoring 40 points, but also allowing their opposition to go up and down the field.  The Ravens were following that trend as well until the defense flipped and became one of the best units in the league.  BAL finished 1st in FPPG from the QB and TE and 2nd from RBs.  A lot of that is because they allowed at least 23 points in 10 of their first 13 games.  A great offense is a must for fantasy success, but it’s only part of the equation and the goal for next season should be to find the next CIN and ride them all the way to the finish line.

What went wrong?

You could have made an argument for any of the four teams winning the AFC North last summer and a lot of people took the Cleveland Browns, assuming they could take the next step and improve on their 11 wins from two seasons ago.  It became very apparent early on that this was a fools hope and that the Browns were systemically broken due to their QB situation.  They didn’t score more than 20 points until Week 8 and finished 23rd or worse in FPPG from the QB, RB and WR positions.  Under Deshaun Watson, they became unwatchable as the run game failed to launch and the passing game was even worse, being comically inept on third downs especially.  The Browns were trapped between the most expensive rock in the world and a hard place, but thankfully Watson and his two Achilles tears have given them an out.  Even a well-run franchise would be hampered by the cost to acquire Watson and for the Browns, it’s proven to be crippling.  There is little hope in the future and instead another long rebuild is likely looming.  It’s just another lesson proving how valuable a QB is to a franchise and one the Browns thought they had finally learned, but instead are reeling from.

The Steelers are another team that was a QB away from contending and have tried anything and everything to till the void left by Ben Roethlisberger.  This past season they opted to go with quantity over quality.  Justin Fields and Russell Wilson together patched a decent season together, finishing a combined 14th in FPPG, but they never really got any sustained excellence out of the offense and instead relied on an elite defense and kicking game to stay in games.  In theory, they had a solid gameplan; running the ball (4th highest rate) with two solid RBs, limiting TOs, checking the ball down (2nd with 24% RB target rate) and letting Chris Boswell get three points.  In reality, they were predictable and couldn’t play from behind and lost the last four games of the season while never scoring more than 17 points.  They tried to hold this team together with super glue rather than build a solid foundation from the ground-up.

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