Nobody is perfect when it comes to fantasy football and anyone that claims they are is not to be trusted.  Perfection isn’t the goal, but greatness is within our reach and the only way to be the last team standing is to learn from our mistakes.  We adapt, we evolve and hopefully we grow.  Ideally, we eventually stop being our own worst enemy and instead be the kind of fantasy GM everyone else in the league fears and respects.

Personally, I’m a massive fan of self-reflection and it’s only by examining the process that we can better anticipate the result.  I am going to do a drive-thru of every team and examine the players and themes I was right on and the ones I swung and missed on.  I will start with the AFC and then hit the NFC.  Every NFL season has it’s own ebbs and flows, but I am confident there are universal truths that can be uncovered and used to create as bulletproof a concept as possible.  Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Baltimore Ravens –  The Ravens were a fantasy monster anyway you slice it.  The QB and TE position finished number-one in FPPG while RB was second.  They were second with 53/47 run/pass split and Derrick Henry ran roughshod over the entire league.  This didn’t surprise anyone, but Lamar Jackson throwing for 41 TDs was a bit shocking and after Week 6, he only had one game with less than two passing TDs.  Jackson was able to thrive next to Henry in a way in which Jalen Hurts with Saquon Barkley didn’t (despite winning the Super Bowl).  This was impossible to predict in my opinion and going forward how do we treat the best QB/RB fantasy combo in the game.

What did we learn?  In Superflex leagues, Jackson was the most valuable player in fantasy (scoring nearly 50 more fantasy points more than QB2 Josh Allen), maybe second next to Barkley, but was he as dominant?  Jackson finished as the QB3, QB12 and QB6 in the fantasy playoffs.  So despite all the rushing yards and passing TDs, he was still outscored by Baker Mayfield in winning time.  The offense was historic, Henry was historic, Jackson was historic, but next season we would buying at the very top of the ceiling and it is tough to bank on another historic season as Henry continues to age.

Buffalo Bills – The Bills were just as dominant as the Ravens offensively, finishing second in scoring (30.9 PPG), but they were 28th in plays per-game and no one really outshot their ADP from a fantasy perspective other than James Cook.  Allen was the MVP, but he also scored 93 of his 385 points over two games and we saw in real-time the team try and reduce the burden on Allen to be the entire offense.

What did we learn?  The Bills don’t care about your fantasy team.  They used three RBs, two TEs and a whole cadre of WRs.  You can’t trust anyone on this team outside of Allen and while Khalil Shakir was solid, Mack Hollins became the TD threat and only Keon Coleman has breakout potential.  The offense is potent, but they have modeled their offensive strategy after KC and will potentially be even less top-heavy next season.  Allen saw his numbers get severely depressed and the Bills finally followed through on their claims to run the ball more (29th in league in pass attempts per-game).

Cincinnati Bengals – Not shockingly the CIN WRs scored the most FPPG in the league.  Ja’Marr Chase reassumed his throne as the WR1A and Tee Higgins shook off early season injuries to finish as the WR3 in FPPG in only 12 games.  Higgins is great, but he’s not that great and it was a combination of teams keying on Chase, Joe Burrow being the best gunslinger in the league the Bengals having a terrible defense that led to plenty of shootouts.  Most people including me were scared off by preseason images of Burrow struggling with his wrist and clearly that wasn’t an issue once the season got going.

What did we learn? Don’t underestimate Joe Burrow is too simple of a lesson.  The key was recognizing the perfect storm of events that resulted in CIN leaning into the passing attack and finishing second with a 35/65 run/pass split and 41 passes per-game.  Who is the next Burrow? Baker Mayfield rode a similar wave to fantasy success and finding the team with the perfect cocktail of arm talent, downfield threats and a leaky defense is the key to unlocking the matrix next fantasy season.

Cleveland Browns – The Browns were last in the league with 15.2 PPG and anyone who was expecting Deshaun Watson to shake it off hadn’t been watching lately.  It wasn’t just the QB that was the problem, the RBs also were 32nd in FPPG.  Jerry Jeudy finished as the WR15, but didn’t have a top-25 finish until after the bye in Week 11.  The Browns were unwatchable unless Jameis Winston was under center and despite being number-one with a 35-65 run/pass split, the passing game was still messy.  I stayed away on draft day, but grabbed Cedric Tillman once Winston grabbed the reigns.

What did we learn? The obvious one is don’t bet on older RBs coming off a major injury regardless of how much they squat in the summer.  Nick Chubb didn’t look like Nick Chubb at any point in the season.  The o-line was banged up, the running game was generally non-existent and yet hope remains because the offense is a QB away from being competent.  The Browns could be the sneaky offense next season if they can go from inept to competent.  Jerry Jeudy showcased he can fulfill his potential and Cedric Tillman might be a star.  The Browns can’t get out of their way, but if they ever do, look out.

Denver Broncos – The Broncos were who the Browns wanted to be.  Bo Nix had to shed the training wheels, but once he did the offense rolled.  Nix finished as the QB7 and while the team only scored four more points than in 2023, the eye-test spoke volumes.  The running game remains a work in progress, but Courtland Sutton looked like a star and Marvin Mims might actually be one.

What did we learn? – The Broncos success remain a mystery as they are clearly are better than the sum of their parts.  Sutton finished as the WR14, but no one is taking him that high, Mims finished the season as the WR4 and WR6 in b2b weeks, but that’s an awfully small sample size.  Nix is the only true standout as he posted five weeks with 21+ fantasy points while being one of nine quarterbacks to have multiple games of 28+ fantasy points on the year.  He’s got a high-floor and a high ceiling with the rushing potential and should be even better next season.  His ADP is going to fall outside the top-10 and is going to be another reason to shotgun the QB position next season.

Houston Texans – The Texans were so sexy last summer that they could have had an Only Fans page.  CJ Stroud ended up being over drafted which now seems obvious considering he doesn’t run and while Joe Mixon started hot, he melted and only Nico Collins fulfilled his promise as a present and future alpha WR.  It’s hard to blame Stroud too much since Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs all had serious injuries during the season.  They finished 30th in QB FPPG and anyone who continued to start Stroud after Collins got hurt probably didn’t make the playoffs.  I was all-in on Collins and he was my biggest win of the season as he was the WR1 until he get hurt.

What have we learned? Joe Mixon followed the theme of veteran FA RBs crushing their ADP with seven top-10 finishes before Week 13 while also missing three games.  He didn’t finish inside the top-30 again.  The Mixon late-season fade was mildly predictable if you looked at the schedule, but the Stroud demise was more confounding, but also maybe don’t bank on monumental rookie seasons carrying over as a sophomore.  The most obvious candidate for this next season is Jayden Daniels and while he has a built-in floor with his running game, he otherwise fits the bill.

Indianapolis Colts – Everybody loved the IND offense last summer including me.  A healthy Jonathan Taylor with a more seasoned Anthony Richardson combined with multiple receiving threats and a solid o-line had all the ingredients of a top-five offense.  Instead they were a middling offense (17th in PPG), played yo-yo with their QBs and never figured out an offensive identity.  Taylor really flew under the radar, finishing as a top-five RB in FPPG because the headline was always how inconsistent Richardson was throwing the ball.

What did we learn? Richardson followed in the same footsteps as Stroud as everyone predicted exponential growth, but instead there was stagnation.  Josh Downs, Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce all are brimming with talent and we saw that with Joe Flacco as IND WR were targeted at the 4th highest rate, but Richardson and his 48% completion percentage helped them provide the 17th most FPPG.  Part of fantasy is prognosticating and projecting, but that’s also where we get in trouble.  If you are going to predict a big jump, make sure it won’t cripple your team if it doesn’t happen.  Big swings are better served later in your draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars – The poor Jaguars ran fewer plays than any team in the league, had the third-worst RB FPPG production and pretty much sapped all the life out of the franchise.  It would be dire in Jacksonville if it weren’t for Brian Thomas Jr. who finished as the WR4 despite a terrible QB situation.  After Puka Nacua two seasons ago, everyone was on the hunt for the next one, but everyone said there wasn’t a Nacua amongst the sleeper rookie crop of WR.  BTJ had metrics similar to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and once bitten, twice shy so I didn’t buy on draft day, but I should have.

What did we learn? You can never have enough rookie WRs and quantity is always better than quality.  If you had only drafted rookie WRs, your fantasy team would have been better off, but until recently they usually needed a half season to marinate.  BTJ and Ladd McConkey changed the game and if you don’t draft at least two rookie WRs, you are handcuffing your squad’s potential.

Kanas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are the rare fantasy sandbag.  They remain the best team in the league, but they have outgrown fantasy.  They only had one non-Pat Mahomes skill player average 10+ FPPG (Kareem Hunt who didn’t even start the season on the roster) and while Rashee Rice was on that list, he only lasted three games.  They targeted their WRs only 50% of the time which was 29th in the league and there is no reason to suspect anything will change after losing only two* games all season.  I was big on fading Travis Kelce as it was clear they were going to ease him into the season and only got burned on Hollywood Brown.

What did we learn? Stay away from great teams with great defenses.  There is a common theme between the two teams in the Super Bowl and that is a lack of offensive aggression.  The Bills didn’t have a great defense, but they also didn’t do more than they had to.  KC ate clock, threw the ball short of the sticks and did everything they could to avoid TOs and as a result missed out on explosive plays.  Mahomes only had four completions of 40+ yards (compared to 14 with Lamar Jackson) and finished 13th in FPPG.  Mahomes is barely a QB1 for fantasy and while they could have a potent offense next season, the whole team has somehow become a stayaway.

Las Vegas Raiders – The Raiders like the Jags would be hiding their heads in the sand if it wasn’t for their own generational rookie.  Brock Bowers broke the mold, but the rookie TE curse had already been broken and he sailed under the radar on draft day as all the sophomore TEs stole the attention.  The offense was still a disgrace, finishing last targeting WRs and second-last in runs per-game.  The RBs were terrible and once they traded Davante Adams, it was all up to Jakobi Meyers.

What did we learn? Volume isn’t always king as Zamir White was terrible and Alexander Mattison continued to be uninspiring.  If the QB play is poor, all the other warts become even more visible and the Raiders showed how far away they were from the rest of the AFC.  The blueprint is still solid and they are a top-five bounce-back team if they can get competent QB play, a reliable coach and not roster the worst RBs in the league.  If they sign a veteran QB with chops, I will be taking Bowers with my first-round pick.

Los Angeles Chargers – We knew the Chargers were going to follow through with their new run-first philosophy as they had 46/54 run/pass splits, but they still funneled passes to WRs at a top-six rate.  The checkdown was eliminated from the playbook with RBs having a 13% target share, but the Chargers played smart and tried to slow the game down, ranking 29th in plays per-game.  Everyone avoided drafting the pass-catchers as well as Justin Herbert which turned out to be a half-measure as Herbert was fine, but Ladd McConkey exploded and was one of the few rookie WRs with an above average QB.  McConkey showed in the preseason he was going to be good, but we still ignored him because he was small, white and the Chargers were going to run the ball.

What did we learn?  Don’t overreact to preseason bluster.  Herbert was a QB1 on the season, but he didn’t crack 20 fantasy points until Week 8 and didn’t get over 25 until the last game of the season.  He was more reliable than he was excellent, but McConkey should have been more obvious due to the opportunity that opened up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams vacating.  Drafting McConkey would have cost nothing and paid off multiple times over as he finished as the WR11.  Now the value is likely gone and he might be over drafted as he’s more of a high-floor guy than a high-ceiling one.

Miami Dolphins –  The MIA offense was able to support multiple stars two seasons ago and there was no reason to think they wouldn’t run it back.  That didn’t happen and the biggest drop came from WRs ranking 2nd in FPPG to 28th.  Tyreek Hill fell off a cliff and ruined many fantasy seasons and it’s hard to tell if he’s pre-washed or if it the the wrist injury really sideswiped his season.  I stayed away from the offense entirely, but that was schedule related, not talent correlated, so no real victory lap.  Hill is likely going to find another home and if his ADP slides enough, the dip is going to be rich in value, but consider me skeptical.

What did we learn – There is a lot of talk about the RB age-cliff, but this past season was littered with aged 28+ RBs who had banner seasons.  The WR cliff is about 31 and while Davante Adams defied the skeptics, that was mostly due to reuniting with Aaron Rodgers and being hyper-targeted.  DeAndre Hopkins didn’t have a great season despite getting the Pat Mahomes upgrade.  Same goes for Amari Cooper with Josh Allen.  Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett and Brandon Cooks all had down seasons.  Don’t chase WRs as they age-out, sometimes the appearance of value is simply a trap and Hill is about to cross the invisible age marker.

New York Jets – Everyone had the Jets pegged as a fantasy powerhouse built around Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall and instead they tried giving the ball to everyone else.  I might love Hall and Wilson next season, but I didn’t draft either this past season because there was no room between their ADP and the ceiling.  The real problem is MetLife stadium and I will go out of my way to avoid that disaster turf.  Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the problem and the upgrade from inept to competent should have carried the day, but the poor coaching and o-line proved too formidable an obstacle to overcome.

What did we learn? Honestly, I’m still not sure what the takeaway from the Jets season was.  The failure was so widespread, it’s hard to pinpoint the epicenter.  The Jets did such a great job throwing us off the scent, it’s possible Wilson and Hall will both be post-hype sleepers.  I still believe in the talent and would consider each a must-draft if they were to leave the Jets and MetLife stadium.

New England Patriots – Fading the Pats this season was in vogue and no one was on the other side of this one.  They were 26th or worse in FPPG from the QB, RB and WR positions.  The only hope is Drake Maye and he showed more with his legs than his arm in his rookie campaign. The Pats need nearly everything, but if Maye makes the leap he could plug a lot of holes.  I took a few fliers on DeMario Douglas especially in PPR leagues and still like him going forward or until another WR proves himself.

What did we learn?  Never a trust a team with a bad o-line going into to the season as it turns any other leaks into floods.  The Pats were 30th in PPG and don’t have any blue-chip players on offense other than Maye.  The floor is low, but the ceiling is high because of the unknown.  There is a lot of growth potential, but who knows where it will come from.  One player can make the difference, but unless they fix the systemic issues at the o-line and coaching, Maye will be fighting an uphill battle next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers proved that two 50 cent pieces don’t add up to a dollar.  Both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson had moments where they looked like the answer at QB, but those moments faded as did the offense.  I was big on Jaylen Warren in the summer and during the season and feel/felt he was the better RB, but Najee Harris played just well enough to keep his job.  Warren is a top handcuff, but he and Harris aren’t quite explosive enough to start each in the same week.

What did we learn?  George Pickens for all his faults has WR1 in him as long as he has QB who can get the ball downfield.  When a team splits a season with two QBs that are night and day, it’s hard to properly extrapolate the fantasy value.  Pickens was solid, but the offense needs more as the WRs finished 31st in FPPG.  The situation is almost more important than the talent as Pickens averaged 59.8 yards per-game and no zero TDs with Justin Fields and 76.7 yards and 0.4 TDs with Wilson.  The PIT situation mirrors the IND one, but at least in PIT they are going to go with the more passing friendly QB.

Tennessee Titans – The amount of people who were backing a Will Levis to have a breakthrough season were few and far between, but they were out there.  Calvin Ridley was fine, but like so many teams, the TEN offense was a QB away (32nd in QB FPPG) from competency.  Tyjae Spears was a sexy handcuff and the longshot paid if you had the patience as he posted a top-15 RB finishes in each week of the fantasy playoffs.

What did we learn? Tony Pollard was solid, but if you liked Spears like I did, it took an entire season of patience for that bet to hit and from Week 11 to Week 14 he scored a combined 3.4 fantasy points.  Timing is everything, but patience is a virtue that some fantasy GMs can’t afford. As much as we try and control the chaos, a lot of this comes down to luck and if you were able to stash Spears and make the playoffs, you hit big, but if you weren’t it’s hard to blame yourself using a hindsight lens.

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