August 7, 2023, 12:52 am
As we get deeper into the season and the dust settles from the off-season, players’ Average Draft Position have fluctuated a lot since the start of drafts this Summer. It’s important to watch the trends in drafts because someone may have been able to take a player multiple rounds later last month than you are today, giving their team a significant advantage over yours.
Here, using the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com, I charted the biggest and most significant risers and fallers over the last month by position and mention some things that stood out. You may want to avoid the risers highlighted in red and feel better about taking fallers highlighted in green, assuming there wasn’t a detrimental reason for the ADP change.
The onesie positions are definitely less dynamic in movement than running backs and wide receivers. I think Kyler Murray is still a fine value at his ADP despite the biggest jump among QBs. Tannehill’s rise can obviously be credited to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and I am fine drafting him as my third QB nowadays, whereas I was completely fading him prior.
The Jordan Love hype train dying down as the season gets closer is interesting to see, but I’ll gladly be taking him at his ADP now and a month ago. Mac Jones’s fall is the inverse to Tannehill’s rise, as New England was figured to be the favorites to land Hopkins. I think New England has enough serviceable weapons that Jones can have some big weeks, and I like taking him as my third QB in drafts.
Zamir White’s jumped into the end of Best Ball drafts thanks to the Josh Jacobs holdout, which makes total sense. Williams and Kamara each leaping a whole round in the middle of drafts is pretty significant. They make sense, though, due to the dust settling on their respective ailments. Kamara’s suspension is minimal and Williams is seemingly ahead of schedule on his Torn ACL recovery. Joe Mixon was going as late as the end of the fifth round before his legal situation simmered, but now he’s costing a mid-fourth-round pick, leading to a huge value disparity in teams drafting him now and in July.
Pierre Strong, Ty Chandler, and Chase Brown all moved up at the ends of drafts thanks to getting a bump on the depth chart in some capacity. Of these, Chase Brown is by far my favorite to draft, because I can see Minnesota or New England adding a veteran RB before the season to leapfrog them in the pecking order. J.K. Dobbins’s disappointing injury news has scared many drafters from him, including myself. Dalvin Cook’s still unemployed and I don’t like many of his options out there, so I’m avoiding him barring an even further fall past his current ADP.
Many of the receivers on both ends of the spectrum are in Kansas City thanks to the evolving nature of hype coming out of the WR room this off-season. Justyn Ross, Richie James and Skyy Moore have all rocketed up rankings after KadariusToney, the presumed top option, fell victim to another injury in practice. I still like taking Richie James and Justyn Ross the most, considering all of their costs.
DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton each saw a huge rise and fall, respectively. Parker signed a three-year extension with the Patriots, and the threat of DeAndre Hopkins signing there, along with a poor training camp, have helped send Thornton further down draft boards. On the contrary, Nico Collins’s exciting training camp has sent him from round 10 to round 8, so be wary of some lost value there.
As for fallers, I like capitalizing on taking Burks at the discounted value post-DeAndre Hopkins signing, especially when he slides even further beyond where he’s currently landing. Michael Pittman Jr. is a great value in drafts now as well, especially with murmurs that Gardner Minshew may play QB to start the season over rookie Anthony Richardson.
Looking at the risers, I’ve been high on Sam LaPorta, and the Lions passing game as a whole, all Summer long, and it’s validating to see the ADP change reflect that idea. Greg Dulcich and Gerald Everett are still great values who can return a great production for their price point, even half a round earlier than a month ago. Darren Waller is someone I liked more when he was closer to an eight-round selection than an early seventh, so I’m rarely taking him nowadays unless slips back to his previous price tag.
I was avoiding Juwan Johnson before, and I’m avoiding him now. However, the remaining four fallers who have seen their ADP drop for a variety of reasons are fine backup tight end options who could potentially be stacked with a QB to increase your team’s upside. Of the bunch, Irv Smith Jr. and Mike Gesicki are my favorite options to add to my Best Ball teams in this fashion.