What was expected?

The 2023 San Francisco Giants missed the playoffs, finishing fourth in the National League West with a 79-83 record, 21 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Dodgers spent over one billion dollars on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Giants did their best to keep up with the Joneses, er, the Dodgers.

They spent nearly $350 million dollars on free agents, the biggest splash being the $113 million, plus an $18 million posting fee, for Jung Hoo Lee from Japan. Other hitters signed were third baseman Matt Chapman (three years, $54 million), outfielder Jorge Soler (three years, $42 million) and catcher Tom Murphy (two years $8.25 million).

On the pitching side, the Giants added a pair of former Cy Young Award winners. They signed the reigning Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who also won the 2018 AL Cy Young Award, to a two-year $62 million contract with an opt out after 2024 (spoiler alert, he opted out). Robbie Ray, who won the AL Cy Young Award in 2021, came over from the Mariners in a trade for outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitcher Anthony DeSclafani. The Giants also signed reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year, $44 million dollar deal with the thought of turning him into a starting pitcher.

 How did it go?

Spending $350 million, you would expect improvement and that is what the Giants did. For all that money they won one more game than they did in 2023, finishing 80-82. Spending $350 million for one win

Their season was the epitome of a .500ish season. Their best month was May when the went 15-13, their worst month was June, going 12-15. They were three games under .500 before the All-Star break, one game over after the break. Against NL West foes they went 26-26 and were .500 in one-run games and in interleague play.

Looking at their team on the Fangraphs player rater, three of their top 11 players did not have an ADP and their top finisher on the player rater, relief pitcher Ryan Walker, had an ADP of 749.

The newcomers were really good or really bad, nobody really fell in the middle.

The Good…

Matt Chapman had a resurgence in the Bay Area, hitting.247 with 27 homers, 78 RBIs with 15 stolen bases and played great defense, winning his fifth Gold Glove Award.

Blake Snell made 20 starts, going 5-3 with 145 strikeouts in 104 innings, finishing with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. As is the case most seasons, injuries tampered his production. He has only pitched more than 130 innings twice in his career, both seasons he won the Cy Young Award.

The Bad list is much longer…

Jung Hoo Lee played 37 games, had a .641 OPS with two homers and two steals. His season was cut short in early May when he dislocated his left shoulder crashing into the outfield fence chasing a flyball.

Jorge Soler did not give the Giants the power they expected when they signed him, he hit just 12 homers in 93 games before being traded to the Braves. Of those 12, just four were hit at home.

Tom Murphy played in 13 games, hit .114 and struck out 14 times in 34 at bats.

On the mound, Jordan Hicks made the transition from reliever to starter and went 4-7 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and had a 96-47 K:BB rate in 109.2 total innings, making 20 starts and nine relief appearances.

Robbie Ray made seven starts and struck out 43 hitters over 30.2 innings but had a 4.70 ERA and issued 15 walks.

The Giants definitely did not get their money’s worth out of those free agents in 2024.

Fantasy Stud?

Going into 2024 drafts, nobody had Matt Chapman finishing as a top 50 player, but that is where he finished, 50^th, on the Fangraphs player rater. Finishing as the seventh-ranked third baseman after being the 25^th player drafted at the position in 2024 drafts, what fantasy manager would not take that profit?

For the third time in four seasons, he hit 27 homers, but his real value in 2024 was the 15 stolen bases. Not bad after having 11 career stolen bases entering the 2024 season.

He finished 2024 with a .247/.3258/.463 slash line and a 121 WRC+.

Fantasy Dud?

If you looked up Fantasy Dud in a fantasy baseball dictionary, you would find Camilo Doval ‘s picture and 2024’s stat line as the entry.

Doval was the fourth closer drafted in 2024 drafts with an ADP of 57, but finished the 470^th on the Fangraphs player rater, the 87^th relief pitcher on the player rater.

After a going 9-for -10 in save opportunities through the end of May, the last four months were a nightmare for Doval. He had an 8.10 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in June, 4.32 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in July, 4.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in August and a 6.94 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in September.

That. Is. Bad.

He kept getting save opportunities until the Giants decided enough was enough and sent him to the AAA Sacramento River Cats on August 9 for 15 days.

Upon his return he had one save opportunity and converted it, but did give up an earned run in the outing.

His final stat line: 4.88 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 78:39 K:BB ratio over 59 innings; not exactly the numbers you want out of a top closer.

Looking at the other metrics, his expected metrics said he should have been better. A 3.73 xERA, 3.63 xFIP and a 3.73 SIERA all indicate his numbers were due to some bad luck. Two things stand out which caused the inflated numbers, his walk rate went from 9.3% in 2023 to 14.4% in 2024 and his BABIP was .333, well above the league average of .289.

If he can lower the walk rate and the BABIP regresses back to the norm, Doval could be a viable closing option for the Giants in 2025. He does have a good history of being a successful closer, so I think he is draftable in deeper leagues like draft and hold leagues or NL-only leagues if you are drafting early. For those drafting in March, keep an eye on his usage in spring training.

Fantasy Surprise?

In 1,571 drafts on the NFBC site in the preseason, Ryan Walker was picked in just 56 drafts with an ADP of 667. He finished as the top Giants player on the Fangraphs player rater, finishing 38^th overall and the number two relief pitcher behind Emmanuel Clase.

What a surprise!!

He was given four save opportunities through the end of July and blew all four chances. But when Camilo Doval was sent to the minors, the Giants passed the baton to Walker, and he converted all 10 save chances to finish out the season.

He was fantastic in 2024, winning 10 games (that really helps the player #38 ranking on the player rater), finishing with a 1.91 ERA, microscopic 0.85 WHIP with 99 strikeouts and 18 walks in 80 innings.

Player Breakdowns:

Hitters

Matt Chapman – 3B

After a subpar year in Toronto in 2023, Chapman bounced back in 2024 with an added element to his game: speed. After stealing 11 bases in seven seasons with Oakland and Toronto, he stole 15 bases for the Giants in 2024. Not many players in their eighth season, and at 31 years old, best their career stolen base total in one year.

What makes the stolen base increase interesting, the Giants were 29^th in MLB in stolen bases with 68, while the 2023 Blue Jays stole 99 bases. Fantasy owners should not expect a repeat of those numbers in 2025.

He led the Giants in runs (98), hits (142), homers (27) and RBIs (78) and his 15 steals were second to Tyler Fitzgerald’s 17.

Chapman hit 17 homers in 2023, yet his hard-hit rate (56.1%) and barrel rate (12.6%) were higher in 2023 than his 2024 numbers of 48.2% and 12.6, respectively. His expected numbers show he should have hit 28 in 2023, a season that was definitely an outlier.

Chapman falls into the second tier of third basemen and should be a top 10 third baseman in 2025 drafts with an ADP around 130. Looking at his Khris Davis (IYKYK) history, fantasy owners should pencil in 27 homers in 2025.

Heliot Ramos – OF

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