Obviously, all signs point to picking AD at number one of all h2h 9 cat drafts this season. Going against such logic would be as unreasonably obtuse as Dave Joerger’s rotation last season. Right?
... maybe not.
If you’ve been blessed with the first pick of your draft, well done. You have the world at your knees and can expect a top player regardless of whether you pick harden, ad or KAT. However, I think it is important to consider the potential benefit in drafting harden at number 1 as opposed to AD - IN SOME CIRCUMSTANCES (emphasis added for effect).
James Harden is a beast. You can expect him to smash 3 pointers, assists and ft% for you along with some sensational points and decent steals. However, if you compare him solely against AD, he loses to the brow 9 times out of ten. But what about if you have some stellar bigs available for your 2/3 picks?
I have found that, in my recent mock drafts, there are more productive big men then you might think. If you are able to pick one big man per round who rocks your world with boards and blocks with decent fg%, you are laughing. For example, these are some of the players I have seen in each round:
2/3
Love
Gobert
4/5
Deandre Ayton
Hassan Whiteside
Al horford
Nic Vucevic
Collins
Jarret allen
Is it worth considering harden? Given that his finals sitch is gold and you can still get quality bigs it might be time to say not now to the brow and fear the beard.
Let me know your thoughts.
The argument for Harden is valid as his durability and ability to deliver are both established.
However, the choice of AD over Harden is not solely based on the positional scarcity of center-eligible players (whether actual or perceived) in the pool. Although, as a footnote, the absence of Porzingis and Cousins as viable draft options need to be laid out on the table.
That said, picking Harden over AD is not "bad" nor "wrong," as long as it is done purposefully and with the understanding that you are taking the less valuable player in 9cat on per game valuations.
Knowing that, if you can and have the means to gain back or gain more value later, leaving you with an overall more valuable team (fantasy value-wise), then taking him is ok from that perspective. That said, even at 75 games played (assuming AD repeats it), Davis is still the better overall play/pick/choice at that spot.
I agree that Davis is the better play/pick/choice if he plays a full season... but hear me out.
AD is playing in a team that, in this absence, would likely be in tank mode. Holiday is a gun but does not have the skills to take the rag tag remainder to playoffs. In view of this, AD will be playing hard.
While this is a good thing during the start and middle of the season, my concern (in 9 cat h2h) is his likelihood of a shut down during playoffs. While Harden may be rested, he will at the very least be playing.
To be clear, I agree with your view and will pick up AD on draft day. I’m just outlining the considerations that should be on everyone’s mind when making this decision. This is because the first or second draft pick decision, as opposed to pick 3 onwards, does not involve “who might fall to you”. You need to find the value in guessing the potential top player so I think it’s important that this is discussed.
The Pelicans are in a good spot and I don't think they will be tempted to tank. I see them as being competitive enough to be in the hunt for a Playoff spot. I visualize a few maintenance rest days for AD, to preserve him mid-season, but overall he will be playing hard (and well) to lead (not carry) them to a berth.
I had this discussion on Twitter, making the case for Harden and all - playing Devil's advocate if you will. I welcome the discussion and must say that exploration into the reasoning for top-pick choices is worth an exhaustive discourse.
I think if you're hunting positions based on scarcity, I'm not sure Harden is that guy (unless he has PG eligibility in your league). I'd almost consider Curry in there to get the PG, since the truly elite PGs are gone by the middle of round 2. Just throwing another wrench into the mix.
That said, AD, for sure. Like, way, way ahead of everyone else.
