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Holmes - playing Devil's advocate

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(@jonproud)
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I am a long-time Bruski-believer (a Bruskliever?), and I've been picking up and stashing Richaun where possible. Excited for his potential return on Friday. However... if I was to play devil's advocate here, it's hard to see exactly where he's going to find the minutes to have top 70 potential, or even top 100 (without an Embiid injury). With Embiid looking fully healthy and playing 30 mins a game already, and not taking many off, only leaves a max of 18 at the 5 except when Jojo takes an occasional night off. Let's assume that in typically annoying NBA coach fashion, Brett Brown gives the ghost of Amir Johnson 5 mins per night at least. Leaves a max of 10-15 mins let's call it.

Do we think he'll play alongside Embiid at all? Or we're relying on an Embiid injury, or reduced Embiid minutes (can't really see him taking kindly to that) and no Amir minutes? Because even our man Holmes can't produce compelling value in 10-15 mins.

Thanks

 
Posted : 02/11/2017 10:45 am
(@dbesbris)
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Indeed that is a reason for concern. He can be pretty useful if he can get to 20, and then those Embiid rest days he can go YOOOGE

 
Posted : 02/11/2017 1:08 pm
(@lilxleftee)
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This is how I see it.

Sixers have around 11 more back-to-back games left in the season. I'm sure Embiid will take off on those, so that's 5-6 games off Embiid. Then there will be the minor injury, or injury scare that'll make Philly be extra cautious which will then perhaps reduce Embiid's games played to another 5-6 games off for the season. Then there's the chance to hit the jackpot if Embiid suffers a major injury. Also, he has hit 30 minutes, but I wouldn't know for sure if that'll continue on, or if it'll dip back down to the mid 20s. Then there's Philly's rotation. Saric has been playing PF/C minutes at times right now, so who knows.. Maybe Holmes might play alongside Embiid as well. I don't think Amir Johnson will be in the rotation, except for the occasional garbage time show.

All of this adds up to Holmes likely being very valuable. I do think Bru ranked him a bit too high, but I think Holmes will likely finish in the top 100 at the very least. If it doesn't seem to be working out, then you could drop him. Also, he's not on most people's radar so there's a chance you could snatch him back up when Holmes heats up.

So overall, it's a very good stash, and it's worth the investment of a roster spot to hold on him.

 
Posted : 02/11/2017 9:55 pm
(@philippecarrier)
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I stashed him in my 7 leagues. The upside is just too valuable. Even if he only gets 20-22 minutes, that's enough to be in your lineup most of the time. And like lil leftee says, wheneve Embiid is out, you have a guy that can put up top 20 numbers.

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 6:01 am
(@greyson12)
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Here is an interesting article which I saw tweeted out.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/sixers-brett-brown-richaun-holmes-20171102.html?mobi=true

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 6:08 am
(@dbesbris)
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He SHOULD be excited. Holmes is an athlete and a beast.

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 6:24 am
(@jonproud)
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I love him as a player, I just don't think 15 mins a night and then a full game every 5 or 10 games will put him at anything better than the 80-120 kind of range. I hope I'm wrong, I've drafted, added or traded for him in 3 or 4 leagues. I think it's essentially a very similar situation to Olynyk.

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 6:33 am
(@nnguyen012)
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@Jonathon It's pretty similar but Holmes has higher upside with a lower floor. He's so talented too I just don't see how he doesn't take minutes away from Amir/Saric. If he just gets Nerlens Noel minutes he'll be top-100 easy.

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 12:17 pm
(@jonproud)
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No I get it (hence Devil's advocate), but I think I just assess the blue sky case (no Embiid) to be a much lower probability than some seem to. And I don't have him, so it's not a handcuffs situation. Anyway - fingers crossed BB finds him 20mins plus, starting tonight!

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 12:19 pm
(@jonproud)
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*Pair of eyes emoji*

 
Posted : 03/11/2017 3:52 pm
(@jonproud)
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Come on Hoopball, let's not do a Rotoworld on this and only discuss 'sleepers' etc only on the good days. Holmes put up an absolute dud last night and was only given 8 minutes, and there's not a single mention of Holmes on the site anywhere as yet (Dish, blurbs, tweets, etc). If this is even going to be a semi regular occurrence then he's not a 12-team player just for the chance of a big game once a month when Embiid rests.

 
Posted : 10/11/2017 6:47 am
Aaron Bruski
(@bruski)
Posts: 276
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Hey guys, I just forwarded this to the powers that be because it's unacceptable and it was definitely just an oversight -- not intended whatsoever. We DEFINITELY want to blurb the bad nights for guys we hype up so we maintain our credibility. You guys know me, that's how I've always rolled.

As for Holmes, I figured I'd get some questions about him because that was a massive dud and I watched the whole game, laughing at what the Kings can do to a box score, both good and bad. That's the real story there. Embiid was out of sorts the whole game, even though he put up numbers, and when Holmes came in initially for the first nine minutes the game flow was all over the place. Then, with Zach Randolph out there it appeared that Brett Brown wanted to go with Amir Johnson and that was it for Holmes.

I'm not moving the needle at all for Holmes after this game, I've seen the Kings do this too many times. Teams will obviously do well against them and put up big boxes, but I've seen stable teams that you can count on every night like the Grizzlies, Warriors, Pistons, etc. put up random stuff you could have never dreamed of. Holmes is a very consistent per-minute performer. Classic Kings box score. You're dropping him at your own risk, especially the way Embiid looked out there -- wobbly legged, out of shape and crashing all over the place. And with Holmes we know that 20 mpg is going to get the job done. It's not like he's Jamal Murray and even in a 30 mpg scenario he profiles as a late-rounder and we're still advising a hold. That would be bad investing.

 
Posted : 10/11/2017 7:18 am
(@jonproud)
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Thanks Bruski, that's pretty fantastic service to get such a quick and detailed response. I was yanking your chain a bit with the RW reference - I know that's a huge bugbear of yours! Lol at getting in the Jamal Murray jab at the end, hahaha.

Hmmm I may have to float a few late round offers to try and snag another Holmes or two. Have only seen him dropped in one league (of 10) all season (I managed to grab him). The trouble is that most people that own him either have him as handcuffs for Embiid, or must be fellow Hoobballers. I haven't been able to watch that much Embiid yet, sounds like the eye test is a bit concerning, haven't heard that from elsewhere yet.

I will say, this is one of the fairly rare occurrences where you and Josh Lloyd are miles apart (Dieng the same and obviously very similar situation). It's a bit like hearing your parents argue! I sort of have to remind myself that he is a bit more h2h centric, you're more of a roto purist, and all my decent $ leagues are rotos. Plus given how big Holmes was for my teams last year, I owe some extra loyalty and patience with him here!

 
Posted : 10/11/2017 7:33 am
(@erikong)
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@Jonathon

I was doing the blurbs yesterday. That was my bad. I agree with your point and it is well put. Holmes. Is not as high value a stash as it would seem, at least based on results.

I've dropped him myself in a couple of leagues where I'm stocked full of injured guys and I needed the space for a warm body.

Holmes is now, at the very least, someone to keep on watch lists.

 
Posted : 10/11/2017 1:47 pm
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