Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Valencia and Panathinaikos delivered one of the best Playoff series in recent memory, and Game 5 matched the level.

Valencia stayed committed to the adjustments made heading into Greece. The doubles on Kendrick Nunn, especially in late-clock situations, continued to disrupt his rhythm, and the box score reflected it. The former EuroLeague MVP finished with nine points and six turnovers in a difficult outing.

Coach Pedro Martinez’s adjustments also erased TJ Shorts’ impact. The American guard played under six minutes, and his stretch on the floor was so ineffective that coach Ataman said Panathinaikos was “playing 4 on 5” with him out there, a reflection that also points back to preparation.

But Valencia’s control of the game extended well beyond those adjustments. Neal Sako was critical in PnR coverage, protecting the paint and cleaning the glass. Overall, Valencia’s team defense was outstanding, allowing only 23 points in the first half and posting the 2nd-best defensive rating of the season. A clear save-your-best-for-last performance from the Taronja.

Offensively, Jean Montero stood out again, even in his lowest-scoring game of the series. Brancou Badio exploded for 20 points, tying a career high, and the timing of his shots mattered as much as the total, repeatedly stopping any momentum Panathinaikos tried to build.

Valencia was the better team over the course of the season, and while the Greek side may have held the talent edge, the collective strength of Valencia carried the series and secured the club’s first Final Four appearance.

Now the question becomes whether the dream continues.

 

Final Four Preview

The road ends here. OAKA in Athens, the place every team wanted to reach to close the season. Only four teams made it, and every one of them earned it.

Olympiacos, Valencia, Real Madrid, and Fenerbahçe showed across the 38-game regular season that they were the top four teams in the competition. When the moment of truth arrived, the Playoffs, each one stamped its ticket to the final stage of the season.

Now they are here, and every team is chasing the same goal: becoming King of Europe. Only one will get there.

 

Olympiacos vs Fenerbahçe

The first semi-final puts Olympiacos and Fenerbahçe head-to-head, the best offense in the competition against the best defense.

Olympiacos’ offensive system was outstanding all season. Their ball and player movement consistently stood out, and leading the league in AST% reflects that. On the other side, Fenerbahçe was the best defensive team in the competition, combining versatility with elite scheming to take away opponents’ strengths. That clash will be central in this matchup.

Fenerbahçe has elite defensive size and versatility from 1 through 5, allowing them to switch every action if they choose. That could be one way Coach Saras looks to slow Olympiacos and force more isolation play. Another key decision will be how to defend Thomas Walkup. The Greek-American guard has been a below-average shooter for most of his career, 33.9% from three on low volume, but he shot extremely well against Monaco, going 8/13 across three games. The question is whether Fenerbahçe goes under in PnR coverage to limit his playmaking or respects the recent shooting.

Olympiacos has also been excellent defensively, especially at the point of attack with Thomas Walkup and Tyson Ward. Still, Fenerbahçe reached an offensive level in the Zalgiris series that they had not shown previously. The preparation was sharp, and Sarunas Jasikevicius consistently generated easy points through play design. The question is whether that translates again here.

Late-game execution could decide the matchup, placing even more weight on guard play. Fenerbahçe has experienced guards who have repeatedly delivered in key moments, Nando de Colo, Wade Baldwin IV, and the biggest X-factor, Talen Horton-Tucker. Can Olympiacos’ guards match that level? That may decide the game.

Two of the best teams in Europe, in a matchup that feels close to a coin flip.

 

Valencia vs Real Madrid

An all-Spanish clash in the second semifinal, and the seventh meeting between these teams across all competitions this season. The wins are split evenly. Valencia or Real Madrid will break the tie and move on to the championship game.

Real Madrid enters OAKA dealing with major absences. Alex Len and Walter Tavares will miss the EuroLeague Final Four due to injury, leaving Real Madrid thin at the 5. Usman Garuba is the only natural center available, despite being undersized, while Trey Lyles is expected to split minutes there.

Lyles’ minutes at the 5 could be decisive. Offensively, his ability to score from anywhere can open up Real Madrid’s attack. Defensively, though, his issues guarding the PnR can become a problem. Hapoel targeted him successfully in that action, and Valencia brings some of the most dynamic ball handlers in the competition, led by “El Problema” Jean Montero.

Pace will likely decide the game. In Games 1 and 2 against Panathinaikos, Valencia was forced into a slower style and fell behind 2-0. Since Game 3, they have found ways to run and avoid late-clock possessions. Transition defense should be central to Sergio Scariolo’s plan. Limiting early-clock opportunities is critical against this Valencia team.

Defensive rebounding is another key area. Valencia thrives by extending possessions through offensive rebounds and second chances. Real Madrid will need to compete on every rebound. The lack of depth at center puts even more focus there.

Offensively, Real Madrid should look to lengthen possessions and force Valencia to defend multiple actions in sequence. Using bigger wings like Mario Hezonja and Gabriel Deck on the block could also be important.

Real Madrid has experience on its side. They have been here before and won this competition before. Valencia is experiencing this stage for the first time, but Greece has treated them well, with four wins in four games on Greek soil this season.

Experience versus boldness. Powerhouse versus underdog. Only one moves on to play for the European crown.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!

Real Madrid vs Hapoel

Real Madrid traveled to Bulgaria with a 2-0 series lead, looking to close things out while dealing with its road struggles.

Coach Itoudis made a major adjustment for Game 3, putting Ish Wainright on Campazzo and switching every screen from 3 through 5. The change disrupted Real Madrid’s rhythm, making offense difficult both in the PnR and from the block.

Hapoel stayed true to its identity offensively, leaning heavily into 1-on-1 basketball. Whenever Lyles entered the game, Hapoel targeted him defensively. Their best stretches came when they pushed the pace.

Scariolo responded with a different lineup, using Trey Lyles at the 5. It gave Real Madrid more offense, but the defensive issues forced them into a 3-2 zone to cover weaknesses.

Hapoel won Game 3 by controlling the glass, allowing only seven offensive rebounds, and by increasing defensive pressure, forcing 12 turnovers. For comparison, they forced 15 turnovers combined in the first two games.

In Game 4, Itoudis kept the same matchups, but this time Scariolo and Real Madrid were prepared, looking to establish Mario Hezonja on the block. Hapoel found success early in offense, with Micic creating problems attacking off drag screens.

Usman Garuba and Theo Maledon changed the game off the bench for Real Madrid. Garuba’s defensive impact and efficiency offensively stood out, while Maledon’s downhill attack gave Real Madrid another layer.

As the game progressed, both teams simplified the offense into matchup hunting. Hapoel targeted Llull or Lyles whenever they were on the floor, while Real Madrid consistently involved Micic in actions, often using Feliz as the screener.

Real Madrid was stronger throughout the game, and its depth proved decisive in closing the series on the road and securing a spot in Athens.

 

Olympiacos vs AS Monaco

Expectations were high for this 1st vs 8th series, but Olympiacos controlled it from the opening tip. They arrived in Monaco up 2-0 and looking to close the series immediately.

Game 3 started with Monaco on the front foot, as Mike James tried to extend the series by scoring in isolation and taking advantage of a slow start from Olympiacos. Olympiacos settled in by posting up Thomas Walkup and playing off those actions, while a rise in defensive intensity shifted the game. The Greeks generated stops and pushed in transition, taking advantage of Monaco’s short rotation.

Olympiacos’ offensive movement remained the biggest separator. The ball moved freely throughout the game, leading to 29 assists on 37 made field goals. Monaco, meanwhile, relied heavily on individual creation, either through isolation or pick-and-roll, with particular success rejecting the screen.

Three-point shooting decided not only Game 3 but the entire series. Olympiacos went 18/33 from three in Game 3, while Monaco finished 8/29. Across the series, Monaco shot 18/87 from deep, 20.1%, while Olympiacos went 43/98, 43.9%. That gap helps explain the +74 point differential over three games.

Olympiacos was clearly the better team throughout the series and deservedly advanced to the Final Four. The question now is whether the lack of close games leading into the biggest stage of the season will matter.

 

Fenerbahçe vs Zalgiris

Entering the two games in Kaunas, Fenerbahçe held a 2-0 lead and wanted to make sure the series did not return to Turkey, while Zalgiris fought to keep its season alive.

Game 3 did not start well for Zalgiris, with Fenerbahçe opening on a 10-2 run. Over time, adjustments started to show. Going under on Talen Horton-Tucker actions limited his impact, especially early. Offensively, Zalgiris found success in early offense, sprinting the floor, forcing crossmatches, and attacking from there.

In the half court, Fenerbahçe continued to make driving difficult, rotating well and limiting paint touches. Coach Masiulis adjusted by placing three players across the baseline and using guard-to-guard screens, bringing Nando de Colo into actions and attacking him effectively.

The second half brought a major defensive shift from Zalgiris. Touches became tougher for Fenerbahçe, and the offensive flow slowed down. Sylvain Francisco’s third foul made him a clear target, with Fenerbahçe forcing him into the main action repeatedly.

Tubelis was the biggest difference maker in Game 3. He shot well from deep and closed the game as the primary offensive option, with Zalgiris repeatedly going to him on the block. He delivered in key moments to help secure the win.

Game 4 featured another round of adjustments. Fenerbahçe looked to attack Francisco inside early, posting up Devon Hall. Zalgiris tried to establish Tubelis inside, but Fenerbahçe countered by fronting him and denying entries.

Coach Saras also adjusted by setting flatter ball screens higher on the floor for Talen Horton-Tucker, creating cleaner driving lanes. That proved effective. Fenerbahçe also attacked from inside with strong results.

Coach Masiulis answered in the second half, trying to avoid easy switches and instructing players to foul if necessary. Saras responded with a major defensive adjustment, returning to a switch-everything PnR scheme. That slowed Zalgiris in the half court, though transition opportunities still produced offense.

With the game tight late, Wade Baldwin IV stepped up, hitting key shots to force overtime.

In overtime, Fenerbahçe executed better and avoided mistakes, finishing with zero turnovers in the extra period. That proved decisive.

Fenerbahçe had fewer offensive rebounds than Zalgiris, 15 to 16, and committed more turnovers, 15 to 10. But they converted those areas more effectively, leading 18-14 in second-chance points and 14-8 in points off turnovers.

Zalgiris played well, especially at home, but Fenerbahçe’s defense and improved offense carried them to the Final Four.

 

Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Valencia arrived in Athens with its back against the wall, trailing 2-0 and facing a hostile environment.

Coach Pedro Martinez made adjustments heading into Greece. In Game 3, Valencia soft doubled Kendrick Nunn, showing two bodies in the PnR. In late-clock isolation situations, the doubles became more aggressive, forcing the ball out of his hands and leading to turnovers. Nunn committed eight turnovers across Games 3 and 4 combined.

Panathinaikos adjusted offensively by posting up Grant to attack Jean Montero and playing off those actions. With TJ Shorts on the floor, Valencia made another adjustment, sagging off him in the half court and going far under on the PnR, disrupting Panathinaikos’ rhythm.

Valencia’s defense also fueled its offense. They pushed the pace and dominated transition scoring, finishing with a 27-9 edge in fastbreak points in the fastest-paced game of the series. In the half court, Valencia looked more like itself, playing fast, moving the ball, and creating quality looks through sharp cutting and manipulation of the help defense. Coach Ataman responded defensively by switching 1 through 5, which briefly slowed Valencia before they adjusted.

The possession battle played a major role. Valencia grabbed five more offensive rebounds and committed two fewer turnovers, a significant edge in a close game.

Game 4 carried similar tactical themes, leading Coach Ataman to rethink the rotation. TJ Shorts played only 6:47, while Toliopoulos, who had not appeared earlier in the series, logged 7:07 because of his shooting.

But this became a players’ game. Lessort dominated out of the short roll with five assists and punished Reuvers on the block. Cedi Osman was relentless in transition and attacking downhill. Kendrick Nunn thrived playing off the ball and coming off screens.

Still, no player stood out more than Jean Montero. “El Problema” exploded for 29 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists, posting a 45 PIR while controlling the game and hitting major shots to force a Game 5.

It is the only series going the distance. The question now is whether the trend continues, with the road team winning again, or if Valencia reaches its first Final Four.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!

Real Madrid vs Hapoel

The series shifts to Bulgaria, acting as home court for Hapoel, with Real Madrid up 2-0.

Game 1 was defined by Real Madrid operating out of the post. They used multiple players and entry points to punish the defense. Hapoel’s plan was clear: attack through the PnR, but the lack of movement made things easier for Real Madrid’s defense. Scariolo’s playbook created consistent scoring opportunities, with the only real issues coming against the matchup zone. That same zone helped Hapoel get out in transition and find easier looks without facing a set defense. Real’s late-game execution issues appeared again, going scoreless in the final 2:40, but they held on.

In Game 2, Hapoel adjusted, zoning up when the ball went inside to limit post play. Real Madrid responded by shifting toward guard creation, with Campazzo and Theo Maledon leading the way and breaking down the defense. Once again, Scariolo’s team controlled the in-game adjustments. The matchup zone caused some problems early but was not used in the second half. Real Madrid’s team defense stood out and drove a 102-75 win.

Hapoel needs Game 3 to stay alive. Defensive rebounding is a priority after allowing 16 and 13 offensive rebounds in the first two games. Cutting that down would close the gap. Leaning more on the matchup zone could also help, as it has been the most effective way to slow Real Madrid’s offense.

For Real Madrid, the key question is whether their road struggles carry over or if they take a step forward in this stage.

 

Olympiacos vs AS Monaco

Before the series, this looked like one of the most exciting 1-8 matchups. Olympiacos has flipped that script.

The regular-season champs won the first two games by a combined 54 points. Their offense has been dominant, with precise movement and clear intent in who to attack and how. Defensively, they have also been superior, daring Blossomgame and Begarin to shoot while loading up on Monaco’s guards.

Monaco showed some offensive improvement early in Game 2, getting their guards off screens before flowing into the PnR. That helped put Olympiacos’ point-of-attack defenders a step behind and exposed Milutinov more, limiting his impact after a strong Game 1. But the defensive end remained the issue. Olympiacos’ movement continued to create problems, and even adjustments that made sense before the game did not hold up. Thomas Walkup, a 33.6% three-point shooter for his career on low volume, went 3/6 from deep, consistently punishing the under.

Now the series shifts to Monaco, with Olympiacos looking to close it in Game 3. Monaco, already limited in depth, will be without Alpha Diallo and Daniel Theis, which further impacts their chances. They will need a strong shooting night from three, after going 4/28 and 6/30 in Games 1 and 2, but even that may not be enough against an Olympiacos team playing at a high level.

 

Fenerbahçe vs Zalgiris

In the Master vs Apprentice series, it is the Master, Sarunas Jasikevicius and his squad, holding a 2-0 lead heading to Kaunas.

Fenerbahçe’s defense has made life difficult for Zalgiris. Coach Saras moved away from switching with the 5, while also shading Zalgiris guards to the left and loading the driving lanes. That put the focus on Moses Wright to beat them. He did his part, but it was not enough to steal a road win.

Fenerbahçe’s offense has reached a level not seen during the regular season. Players are being put in the right spots and are ready for what the defense presents.

Zalgiris has had positive stretches offensively in both games, generating good looks, but the shots have not fallen. Spain PnR actions, in particular, have given them a way to attack.

With the series shifting to Kaunas, Zalgiris will look for shooting regression toward their season level, 39.8% from three compared to 22.7% and 21.7% in Games 1 and 2. That alone could make things more competitive. To extend the series, they will need more from their guards. That should be a focus for coach Masiulis. Getting Francisco, NWG, and Lo into actions off DHOs or pin-downs before flowing into PnR is one approach. Having them set a backscreen before receiving the ball is another way to get the defense trailing.

For Fenerbahçe, the question is whether this level on both ends carries over on the road or if they struggle away from home.

 

Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Another 2-0 series, this time with the road team, Panathinaikos, leading before heading home. It is as close as a 2-0 series can be, with Valencia at -3 over 85 minutes, but in the Playoffs, a loss is a loss.

Game 1 could not have gone better for Panathinaikos. They forced Valencia into their 2nd slowest-paced game of the season, and despite good looks from deep, Valencia made a season-low six threes. On offense, Panathinaikos was sharp. Coach Ataman prepared well to attack Valencia’s PnR coverage, using Double Drags, Ram Screens, and flipping screen angles to get the hedging big trailing the play. That carried into Game 2.

Valencia played faster in Game 2, though still not at their preferred pace, with Panathinaikos pushing them late into the shot clock. It turned into one of the best games of the Playoffs, with high scoring and both teams executing offensively. Panathinaikos matched Valencia’s three-point makes, which proved crucial. The game came down to details. Free-throw shooting stood out, with Panathinaikos going 15/15 and Valencia 13/23 in a two-point game. Nigel Hayes-Davis responded after a quiet Game 1, scoring 27, including the final eight points and the game-winning buzzer beater.

Valencia is not a team that folds. They head to OAKA ready to face a strong crowd, but with belief they can respond. Limiting Panathinaikos’ three-point volume will be key, along with pushing the tempo. In Game 1, they created good looks by setting flat screens near midcourt to speed things up. That could return in Game 3. Adjustments to their PnR coverage may also help.

Panathinaikos holds the edge, but Valencia will compete.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!

Are these the best playoffs ever in EuroLeague?

The 7th and 8th seeds were in the Final Four just one season ago. Olympiacos carried its regular-season dominance and is still chasing a title that has eluded them for 13 years. One of the most exciting teams in the competition was playing in the EuroCup just last year, featuring the Coach of the Year and the Rising Star. A master vs apprentice clash.

These playoffs have it all, and we are here to break it down.

 

Olympiacos vs AS Monaco

The 1-8 matchup has traditionally been the most unbalanced, with the 8th seed never reaching the Final Four in the new format. This Monaco team is not a typical 8th seed. They reached the final last year and kept most of the same core. They lack depth, but Olympiacos will need to be at its best to return to the Final Four.

Olympiacos runs one of the most polished offensive systems in basketball. Monaco counters with a high-level defense, with strong and switchable defenders at every position. If Monaco can force Olympiacos into 1-on-1 play, that could shift things, but that is a big if.

Monaco leans heavily on the pick-and-roll. Their guards are effective in those situations and can break down coverages. Olympiacos’ point-of-attack defense will be key throughout the series. Thomas Walkup and Tyson Ward should have major roles, especially with Milutinov on the floor, given his limitations in space.

Rebounding is another area to watch. Monaco has struggled on the defensive glass all season, ranking 18th in DREB% at 66.3%. They now face the 2nd-best offensive rebounding team at 36.5% OREB. In a series that projects to be close, extra possessions could push Olympiacos toward the Final Four.

Late-game guard play is another question. Monaco has proven options, with Mike James delivering in clutch moments and Elie Okobo also stepping up. Can Olympiacos’ guards match that production? It is a key point to follow.

Olympiacos was the best team in the regular season and should be favored. Still, Monaco beat them twice and enters with momentum. The question is whether an 8th seed can reach the Final Four.

 

Valencia vs Panathinaikos

Valencia was the 2nd-best team in the regular season and was “rewarded” with a matchup against Panathinaikos, one of the deepest and most talented teams in the competition. While Valencia might feel unlucky, this is a great series for basketball fans.

Valencia won both regular-season meetings, but that carries limited weight here, especially with Panathinaikos having more experience at this stage.

Valencia is not expected to change much. They will play fast, go 12-deep, and take a high volume of threes. Defensively, they will continue to pressure the ball. The key question is how their pick-and-roll defense holds up. It was strong in the regular season, but in a series setting, showing the same coverages repeatedly can be tested. Panathinaikos has three ball-handlers in TJ Shorts, Kendrick Nunn, and Kostas Sloukas who are all effective in pick-and-roll. If they find rhythm, they will be difficult to contain.

Panathinaikos has been inconsistent throughout the season, including with rotations. Anything short of their best could be costly. They have also struggled on the defensive glass, ranking 13th in DREB%. That showed in the regular-season matchups, where Valencia had 13 and 14 offensive rebounds, while Panathinaikos finished with 26 and 19 defensive rebounds. Controlling the defensive glass should be a priority.

Three-point shooting is another factor. Valencia attempts more, 31.8 per game compared to 23.9, and shoots at a higher percentage, 36.7% to 35.2%.

Valencia will look to turn Roig Arena into a fortress, while Panathinaikos will rely on the OAKA crowd to push them. The question is which side comes out on top.

 

Real Madrid vs Hapoel

Real Madrid and Hapoel finished the regular season separated by one game. That small margin carries weight. Real Madrid went 18-1 at home and 6-13 away, so home-court advantage could be decisive.

This projects as a half-court series. Both teams are comfortable playing in those settings, though neither will pass on transition chances.

Mario Hezonja was the X-factor in both regular-season meetings, which Real Madrid won. He averaged 17 points and 8 rebounds, creating mismatches in multiple ways. He used his size in the post, came off screens to shoot, and handled in pick-and-roll. Scariolo should continue to lean on that versatility. Hapoel and Coach Itoudis will need a plan to limit his impact.

Hapoel is strong in pick-and-roll and should feature it heavily, especially when Walter Tavares is on the floor. Forcing him to defend in space is a clear target. Their trio of bigs, Johnathan Motley, Tai Odiase, and Dan Oturu, offers different skill sets that can be used in those situations.

Real Madrid was a first-half team for much of the season and struggled late. Their offense drops in the fourth quarter, with a 111.7 ORTG compared to a 121.1 season average. Hapoel, on the other hand, has been effective in clutch situations and in fourth quarters. In a series expected to be close, late-game execution will matter.

This sets up as a compelling series, with the potential for a Final Four debut for Hapoel or another step for Real Madrid.

 

Fenerbahçe vs Zalgiris

The final Playoffs series puts Fenerbahçe, who spent much of the season in 1st place before a rough finish, against Zalgiris, one of the biggest surprises of the competition. Zalgiris also won both regular-season meetings between the two.

Fenerbahçe struggled offensively all season, finishing with the 15th-best ORTG in the competition, the worst among Playoff teams by a wide margin: FBB 113.6 ORTG; VAL 119.2. Their identity has been built on defense: PnR switches, identifying weak points, and physicality off the ball. That carried them to the best regular-season defense in EuroLeague, with a DRTG nearly three points better than the next best defense.

But one area that has challenged Fenerbahçe’s defense is elite guard creation against switches. That is exactly what Zalgiris brings. Their trio of guards, Maodo Lo, Nigel Williams-Goss, and Sylvain Francisco, can operate in pick-and-roll at a high level and are effective in isolation. At times during the season, we saw coach Saras move away from switching. That will be a key decision point again here.

The coaching matchup adds another layer. Masiulis was Jasikevicius’ assistant until the start of this season, making this a Master vs Apprentice clash. Both Lithuanian coaches are elite tacticians with strong sets. With two top defenses in the series, any easy basket created from the playbook could swing games.

Fenerbahçe enters as defending champions. Masiulis aims to guide Zalgiris to the Final Four like his mentor, but only one path continues.

 

This article was written by the European Hoops team: Tiago Cordeiro, João Caeiro and André Lemos. Make sure you give us a follow on Twitter at @EthosEuroleague!